Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[hiddendepths] 12/11/2021 08:11

I think the share price is holding up very well in the circumstances and the impending promotion is certainly welcome.

The thing that's brought me back to this board is a certain apprehension caused by a repeat of last year's last minute funding. I am glad that nothing has happened on the oil supply front to cause prices to tumble. Such reverses can occur out of the blue but with Biden applying pressure for the OPEC+ countries to relax their restrictions it could easily have happened in the last couple of weeks. Furthermore, those of you who follow oil price chatter on the specialist websites will have noted the return of spending on US shale production, something that OPEC+ has specifically targetted with its low oil price policy of the last couple of years.

Then there's the reality that many of the market crashes happen in October. The slowing of economic growth in the last month or two and the resurrection of inflation coupled with the extraordinary rating of the big US growth stocks could easily have triggered such a fall this year imo.

But those major risk factors to the funding appear to have passed for now, thank goodness, and PANR seems to have got away with it again. I wish they would try to sort out funding sooner in future as it's certainly bad for my nerves, even if such concerns rarely get a mention on this hardly balanced board.

The sooner this funding is announced, whether through a farm-out or an equity raise, the happier I'll be. It just seems unnecessary to me to take such risks, although I accept that if a good farm-out is being negotiated as a first preference, the alternative equity raise has to be put on ice until the last minute.

Anyway, we're all in the same boat, I think, from ngms to scot to those holders, including some of the most knowledgeable, driven from here by vicious personal attacks, and we all want the same thing whatever the petty squabbles and appalling rudeness might suggest to newbs.

[winner66] 12/11/2021 08:07

We could receive a heads of terms for farm out agreed RNS in advance of a further RNS outlining the legal framework and agreement.

[chris0805] 12/11/2021 07:58

Lol true!When everyone agrees it's a negative, then there will be a slanging match over who thinks it's more negative.... Please all ....... No personal comments .... Just discuss PANR investment case...

[ngms27] 12/11/2021 07:52

swendab1, they learnt from HUR and will issue convertible bonds lol

[sporazene2] 12/11/2021 07:52

thanks olderwiser2. seemed to me from Jay's comments that guidance towards a farm out is hardening ever so slightly. Given the timing (if this is the case), they must be in process with or close to working on the legal agreement.

[michaelsadvfn] 12/11/2021 07:50

Good spot Olderwiser.

A clue regarding the timing of a company sale?

“We believe that once we got the go ahead from the state, in a couple of years we could be on production...”

A very upbeat article.

[chris0805] 12/11/2021 07:47

Good find olderwiser2.Great to see some industry press coverage of the PANR planned programme of works. A pity it quotes JC as *quite confidant*, normally Jay's presentation is very slick & I would expect him to have said *very confident*. Only a small point but hopefully not seen as a negative by most readers of the article. Equally a bit odd to see Pantheon Resorces Plc listed as a subsidiary of Great Bear Pantheon, where surely it is the reverse??Finally a bit of a surprise not to see PANR compared to 88e by this publication, given recent history. GLAC

[scot126] 12/11/2021 07:36

Hi olderwiser2 - thanks for the heads up on the article. Very interesting indeed, and very reassuring.

Combine the information from the article with the MSCI promotion to the small cap index and it ought to be an interesting day. Good stuff.

PS fs360 - that made me chortle, very good.

[probabilityofsuccess] 12/11/2021 07:29

Johnswan - there is zero sincerity in that post and your ps comment - well, I can’t believe you’ve actually written that post.

Please delete that post, it’s wrong on so many levels. I’ll delete this post when you have done so.

[rabito79] 12/11/2021 07:27

Think there's a wee bit of data manipulation going on. Pantheon has gone nowhere in 6 years but gone 4 fold in 6.5 years!Out of its 15 years trading it would appear it's spent a maximum of 2 above this price. At worst case people may be ~50% down and at best ~1000% up. I note no mention of Scot126's first investments in Pantheon 3 years prior to his post. During 2012 the price range was between ~6-17p.Anyway great to finally see Petroleum News recognising the Talitha results and the scale of Theta West. Even better it doesn't have a picture of Erik Opstad in it, perhaps because it wasn't written by Kay Cashman.

[olderwiser2] 12/11/2021 06:07

Update status of the farmout page 10

A section of interest to the farmout ponderings

GBP has made no secret of its search
for a farm in partner to share the cost of
development.
“What we can say is we’re quite
advanced on discussions with bringing in a
farm in partner; we’re confident that that
will happen,” Cheatham said. “We’re planning on drilling this winter; we’re looking
for a partner to come in and partner for the
whole thing, that’s what our discussions
are right now.”
The company has a backup plan.
“We have to have either a farm in partner or some other method of financing,”
Cheatham said. “We do not have enough
capital to drill the Theta West well, so
we’ve been going down multiple parallel
paths for the last several months, and
we’re quite confident.”

[madd_rip] 12/11/2021 01:44

Let's hope it is a positive, especially as my portfolio has gone full on Sherman on me, need something positive as am getting a bit sick of 60-70 hour weeks.

[soggy] 11/11/2021 23:18

Does this mean more funds will take note...do trackers buy MSCI companies?

[scot126] 11/11/2021 23:09

Dear All - some excellent news to report. PANR has been promoted to the MSCI Small Cap Index. Please see page 8 of the first link for confirmation of same.




Ever since VOBM#2H, PANR has been in the Micro Cap Index. Please see page 7 of the second link for confirmation of PANR's deletion from the Micro Cap Index.



These index changes were announced at 11pm London time today and will take effect from the cob on 30/11/21. What *generally* happens is that the index funds which are designed to mimic the performance of the MSCI Global Small Cap Index will have between 12/11/21 - 30/11/21 (incl) to make the required changes to their holdings and weightings so that they are correctly positioned for the opening of the markets on 1/12/21.

This particular index is revised semi-annually, May and November. My *understanding* is that PANR will benefit from this index revision as it will result in a net buying requirement by the index funds. That's not to say we might not have some volatility as lines are sold by micro cap index funds who can't just transfer it to their small cap fund big brother. The brokers who do this business are *generally* the US megabanks who have quant teams working up anticipated revisions but they can just as easily pass on certain lines of stock to be bought/sold if they don't think they have the capacity to deal in a particular name, if it's a headache for them to trade or if they just can't be @rsed because "it's small cap/micro cap so who gives a f^ck."

No, I don't know the quantum of net demand. I'll try to find out from former colleagues but I'm out of that particular loop more than other contacts. Those with long-ish memories will recall the last time PANR was promoted from micro cap to small cap, it resulted in pretty decent buying volume which moved the share price up fairly smartly from 150p to circa 180p. Lol, let's hope and trust we remain in the small cap index for longer than last time, which was only six months!!! Great stuff.

[hiddendepths] 11/11/2021 20:48

Bobbiedazzler - I for one did not find your macro thoughts useful but it is clear that many did and I do agree that such a discussion is an integral part of any investment case here and very much on topic. So good for you for putting in the time and effort to get inside the macro picture and sharing your thoughts on here. The hard work is clearly evident in your posts.

[sandcrab2] 11/11/2021 20:02

Yes,the Tyler Central Basin just seemed to evaporate like the Cheshire Cats smile
One moment it was going to be the company maker
Then it seemed to be forgotten about with all the excitement about gas

[scot126] 11/11/2021 18:49

FYI - the price of ANS West Coast crude was $86.40 on 9/11/21 v's Brent at $84.78

[scot126] 11/11/2021 18:37

FYI - john "The Pinnacle" swan193 has just, this very minute, sent me yet another private message. I meant what I said previously, Pinnacle Boy. Stop sending me messages. I don't read them. I have asked you repeatedly, both privately and publicly, to desist from doing so. Your obsession with me is weird and must come to an end.

[bobbiedazzler] 11/11/2021 17:56

Thanks to everyone who liked my post 18848 on the improving oil market context for this winter’s campaign, and also to the direct messages asking me to post onto reddit. Will try. Busy I’m afraid at the day job, so it may not be swift.

Thanks swendab1 for 18853. The oil price is the result of all the macro factors that impacts our investment, for sure. I think “peak oil” is frankly nonsense. The oil price is a function of not just of supply – “peak oil” or not – but of demand. Declining global oil production could go hand in hand with rising or falling oil prices. Ditto rising global oil production. In my view, the BoD are honest and know their oil and particularly their Alaska operations. I don’t know whether any of them was previously involved in a trading/strategic/planning/acquisitions role, does anyone else? However, the Great Bear deal suggests they are no slouches.

Thanks Scott too for the thoughtful response at 18878. I’m not, though persuaded that discussing likely oil prices, given the very high gearing of Pantheon to the crude market, is “putting carts before horses”. Maybe I am too confident in the coming winter campaign, and you are certainly right that the positive or negative news flow will dominate the share price. But the high gearing to oil prices, if the drilling and flow test news is good, will mean a big boost too. If oil prices rise to about $100 a barrel from here, as I expect next year, then Pantheon’s share price should on that account alone be up by two thirds or so. Maybe £1.40 if Canaccord’s calculations are anywhere near right. Like it or not, the Pantheon share price is not just an exploration play but a call option on oil prices. And at the current share price, a very good value one (with a nice safety net called Alkaid to the downside).
Is all this premature? All businesses have to think ahead and prepare on the basis of contingencies, as the board did last year when they were ready to go with the drilling programme days after the placing. Working in parallel on a series of possibly contradictory pathways, rather than waiting sequentially for particular developments, is often the only way to speed business development although it does of course mean that you waste some effort compared to waiting and seeing. Therefore speculation about where we may be in a year or two is part and parcel of normal anticipation and planning or “strategy̶1;. I would also continue to argue that the board cannot make tactical choices on funding/placing/farminees without a view on where the oil price is going (and carbon prices etc). In this sense, in my experience building a company is less like pulling a cart (though I agree it can sometimes seem it, depending on how curmudgeonly your colleagues are) than playing chess: thinking beyond the next move and the one after that, including thinking through divergent paths.
As to what is therefore appropriate on this Pantheon board, my own view is that the key test is simply relevance. I am not a chartist, but I read the chartists who post here, and I wouldn’t want to chase them off the board. I don’t think that the investment community interested in Pantheon is big enough to sustain lots of mini-boards with separate disciplines and points of view. Life also tells me that people can hold some very interesting and intelligent views alongside some that you find distasteful, premature, irrelevant or wrong: I miss my lunches with Bob Catto whose reading of markets, stocks and people I respected greatly, but whose denial of anthropogenic climate change was, given the scientific evidence, eccentric.
It would also be odd to exclude topics like the oil price simply because they may also affect other share prices: that, for example, would edit out some of the interesting and for me highly educative posts from geologists on the grounds that what they say might also affect 88e, Hilcorp, ConocoPhillips and anyone else on the north slope.
I don’t post on principally corporate subjects because I have only second hand knowledge and experience there, and am happy to respect your and others’ views thereon. My professional experience in the financial markets is in the bond market, and my training is as an economist. I feel comfortable posting on subjects where micro or macro-economic analysis is sensible and have done so here because Pantheon is by far the biggest – rather too big to respect any sensible reading of portfolio theory – of my holdings. My decision to post on these subjects, rather than the ones that you are principally interested in, is just an awareness of where I might add some value to the board. I very much appreciate your insights, Scott.
The great John Maynard Keynes, whose quote “when the facts change, sir, I change my mind. What do you do?” you recently paraphrased, lost two and won three stock market fortunes for himself and Kings College Cambridge, and concluded at the end of his career that your prime interest - fundamental analysis, or the Ben Graham value approach – was the safest and most sensible analytical approach for individual stocks. He was, though, always aware and wary of context, including politics, policy and “macro”, and considered his portfolio weighting accordingly. A dual approach?

[bchoco] 11/11/2021 17:17

Scot I reply to what you addressed to me l am not saying that you have a fan club or anything else l appreciate each clear and intelligent posting IMO of yours and others and expect men to remain respectful but NGMS in particular brings the “housewifeR21; mood in me and it is him l am telling that this is not cheerleaders club and to go file or paint his nails elsewhere l sadly miss the good old days ...Telemachus, Darcon, yourself and others explained things again IMO clear and to the point ...😞not hitting out to each other on each message posted - 🙏🏼

[chessman2] 11/11/2021 17:12

Have to say that scot126 is again showing his true colours. There is surely no need to use such language.

Please stick to the investment case as per the post by Chris0805.