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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pantheon Resources Plc | LSE:PANR | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B125SX82 | ORD 1P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-1.25 | -3.35% | 36.10 | 36.15 | 36.60 | 38.50 | 35.85 | 36.40 | 2,881,259 | 16:35:27 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural Gas Liquids | 804k | -1.45M | -0.0016 | -228.75 | 332.04M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
05/11/2021 09:32 | MM's on 82 up from 80 yesterday so 82 should hold imo | sirmark | |
05/11/2021 09:31 | "The Kuparuk is a deal sweetener or another failback like Alkaid. You always have to leave some froth for the purchaser." I'm not so sure ngms. I think that the Kuparuk alone is a company maker. It's simply too big to ignore. The company has already demonstrated that it is not prepared to ignore the Kuparuk. In totality, Alaska is already bigger than any of us could have imagined barely 18 months ago. I've no idea how any of this is going to turn out. I do know that there will remain ample opportunity for profit in the market as we go. In a very real sense, the longer this goes on the better. | gorgeousgeorge01 | |
05/11/2021 09:20 | POS - I agree with Jonny, a deal sweetener in the event of success at TW, not a deal stopper. The company have not been shy about talking up what they have - my view is that if the Kuparuk was still so compelling they would have a) provided an update by now following the 17-May RNS b) alluded to this in the most recent webinar, and other than it appearing on the 3D analysis I do not believe they did. Back in April when others were getting excited about the idea re-entering the Kuparuk I said I expected such re-entry plans to be subtly dropped later, and for me, so far, that ties in with what has happened since then. | johnswan193 | |
05/11/2021 09:01 | Hi Johnswan - have you put those questions to the BoD? Grateful if you could share any responses please 👍. Any answers on this board to all those questions would be complete conjecture, but given the BoD’s experience I trust they will have considered all those things! | probabilityofsuccess | |
05/11/2021 09:01 | Agreed GG, I'm a little nervous though with the share price .... Hoping we get some news next week or we may drift but at as long as we stay over 80p we're still on track :)Come on Jay give me the news big boy | sirmark | |
05/11/2021 08:53 | Hey Forward. Has not the MACD not unwound by now? Have we not broken out of the downward channel now? Perhaps you like to comment on the chart looking better now? | officerdigby | |
05/11/2021 08:49 | The Kuparuk is a deal sweetener or another failback like Alkaid. You always have to leave some froth for the purchaser. | ngms27 | |
05/11/2021 08:48 | If the Kuparuk is so important why aren’t we trying to drill another hole this season? What’s the benefit of waiting, given we’ll know a lot more about TW and Talitha by end of this season? Is this due to rig/crew availability, or inability to manage too many projects in one season? Have they still not been able to come to anything conclusive following the RNS on 17-May, or is the data just not compelling enough to warrant a farm in or placing for this project alone at this time? | johnswan193 | |
05/11/2021 08:38 | "So to me it's 2022 or Houston we have a problem." Not necessarily. The Kuparuk is too big to be ignored. It's a rather nice problem to have, but I think it's changed the timeframe somewhat. Particularly if we are still talking about a 'full value' exit. I see no reason to exit prematurely. The impatient will likely find plenty of opportunity for profit in the market. As far as I'm concerned, the company should take as much time as they need and I'm confident that they will. I hope that Jay stays with us for as long as humanly possible. Look at what he's achieved for us already just to get to this point. | gorgeousgeorge01 | |
05/11/2021 08:17 | cezuan, agreed if the well tests at Talitha and TW go well then PANR can add little future value if the data really is that good that majors believe it. Alkaid in my opinion is nothing more than a sideshow / fallback if all else fails. So to me it's 2022 or Houston we have a problem. | ngms27 | |
05/11/2021 07:37 | A full value exit in 22/23 would suit me nicely. | gorgeousgeorge01 | |
04/11/2021 21:33 | We could overtake TLW's market cap tomorrow... incredibly without any booked reserves !! Our board have clearly do so well So far ... let the funding or farm-out news begin ! | sirmark | |
04/11/2021 21:04 | Hi cezuan - the quotes are accurate, no worries on that score. The thing is, I assess the NPV per barrel for PANR's resources is far in excess of $3.10. *You* may be content with the $2.80 "proof" but I'm not convinced the BoD think the journey is over then either. In addition, my personal research can see the delineation of Theta West (delineation, not development) moving the TRR up to 7bbo or 8bbo. Again, *you* may very well be happy with the 1.4bbo contingent resource figure for Theta West but I'm not convinced the BoD is. The RF guidance is exceptionally low for the North Slope and no work on secondary and tertiary recovery techniques has been done so far. *You* may be content with a RF in the mid-teens but I'm not convinced the BoD is. Let's see what the winter data reveals, eh? I have no doubt you'll be able to sell your shares at a very decent premium to today's share price if the winter season's activities are successful if summer '22 is indeed a hard target for you. | scot126 | |
04/11/2021 20:42 | Post 18708 “at different stages of their careers, Phillip Gobe and Jay Cheatham both had day to day operational responsibility for Prudhoe Bay as executives of ARCO.” Gobe Philip A. 323,973 shares A pantheon shareholder at 17/9/2021. (Post on Reddit showing shareholder register) | jessieduke2 | |
04/11/2021 20:12 | Here are the two 2 central quotes from the CEO (from the most recent webinar): "20) General Q&A Q. “How does PANR bridge the credibility gap which sees PANR currently valued at <30c per barrel of contingent resource [scot126 – now c.40c per barrel of contingent resource with 80p PANR SP] v’s Oil Search’s (OSH) investment in 2017 in Horseshoe when they paid $3.10 per barrel?” A. “Two things. This webinar. And the operations planned for this season (i) re-entering Talitha-A and testing all the zones (ii) drilling 8 or 9 miles northwest at TW, getting into that thicker section that we see on seismic and on the attribute analysis, testing that section and (iii) then in the spring/summer, drilling along the Dalton Highway, putting the gravel down for a full pad development and drilling that horizontal well in the Alkaid anomaly and putting it on stream. In my opinion, that gets us 90% of the way to achieving that [OSH’s $3.10 per contingent barrel in the ground] valuation.” Also, "We’re in this to prove it and sell it, a bit like a venture capital or private equity investment." The 2 quotes in combination imply that they could sell in Summer 2022 for about 90% of the desired valuation via this winter's "proving up"! Using these exact words, my prior consideration was: Why risk anything by waiting +1 year for +10% of valuation? And even if the share price/offer was lower then; the CEO implies that he cannot deliver much more than what is delivered by then. (Our views seem to be fundamentally at odds. Either PANR's valuation rests mainly/90% on this winter (+Alkaid + external validation to reach "proving"), or it does not!) | cezuan | |
04/11/2021 20:05 | @Scot Thx for the reply which describes what I expect. What am I missing? That is what the last webinar "told me" to believe. The procedure was said to be a) flow testing Talitha + TW, b) getting external validation and c) setting up Alkaid to produce in the summer. THEN sell. Your plan would diverge from that and all the "sell/go out with a bang/getting 80% of the overalldesired share price valuation until Summer 2022" (roughly quoted) comments from the CEO during the webinar pretty much completely. I hold my shares because of those "Summer 2022" comments. | cezuan | |
04/11/2021 19:57 | Hi cezuan - I certainly follow the logic of your post #18763. I'd have greater sympathy for it if I believed the 21/22 winter programme advanced PANR as far up the value add curve as you appear to believe it will. Just a personal view, but all else being equal I think it'll be mid '23 before the company *voluntarily* puts itself up for sale. *If* something happens before then, my guess is that it'll be initiated by an external party. PS This evenings posts are, of course, predicated on successful results from the 21/22 season. | scot126 | |
04/11/2021 18:30 | Scot, I have never commented on oil/water wet, choice of chemicals and fluids etc. as that's not something I know much about. I have however managed to call the Kuparuk situation correctly over the past 6 months or so - see referenced posts below. It is only recently that you have concluded the same. In the event of material success at Talitha an/or TW - how much do you think an untested Kuparuk would get in the way of negotiating a sale of the company? I think it depends very much on the extent of the success and the economics of any bid. Say if we have material success at Talitha and/or TW, and remain independent for another year, then it may of course make sense to drill the Kuparuk (as part of Talitha 2?) in addition to further appraisals of successful zones. Likewise if we see failure at Talitha/TW, it then offers another roll of the dice. Finally, and Jonny asked this recently about the SFS, see RNS extract below from 17-May-21 - why have we still not heard any more since then? (Note the Kuparuk appeared as a large reservoir in the 3D model shown at the most recent webinar, but my recollection is that they did not say much about it). RNS 17-May-21 "Analysis continues on the SMD, SFS and Kuparuk zones encountered at Talitha #A. The Company will announce key conclusions from those horizons when work is completed". Post 11548 on 19-Apr-21: I expect plans to revisit the Kuparuk in the future will be subtly dropped later. Post 13275 on 17-May-21: Don't forget during the Kuparuk drill they upgraded recoverable estimates to offset the negative impact of delays and operational issues. This upgrade was never referred to again - instead all future references after the zone failed to flow only referred to initial recoverable estimates, which they stated would now be downgraded. IMO it is highly unlikely we'll drill that zone again, at least not until other targets are done first. Post 14619 on 15-Jun-21: Alkaid supposedly proven already and TW huge so makes sense to go after both of those before trying anything to assess Kuparuk on standalone basis. I fully expect them to flow test the cased zones next season and hopefully they'll also do something at either TW or Alkaid. Anybody know what is supposed to be the optimal location for the Kuparuk and is it possible they revisit it as part of a drill at TW/Alkaid given they can't re-enter at Talitha without a new hole? Post 16816 on 31-Aug-21: As predicted previously, it doesn't sound as though they'll be going back to the Kuparuk anytime soon and won't be targeted at TW or Alkaid. Expect it will be kept on reserve as the final roll of the dice if all else fails. Have not yet fully read what was written on Reddit about it at first glance the conclusion appeared to go against what management had suggested about expected recoverables to be lower than initially suggested. | johnswan193 | |
04/11/2021 18:29 | @Scot Reading "autumn 2023", I cannot but think of all the possible scenarios the oil market may deteriorate in until then. I don't mean to open that can of worms, but that's so far out that at least some would favor "macro" before "micro" considerations here. To me, establishing the Theta/Talitha valuations after this winter's drillings is what it's about. Then getting out before it's too late. There are too many external risks - that's the current consensus view, I think - that an additional year just to up 1 partial valuation (that has downside risk, too) doesn't seem favorable from a shareholder perspective imo. | cezuan | |
04/11/2021 18:28 | Interesting comment on the Kuparuk Scot. Whether this management or a future owner of the Company gets around to proving up the Kuparuk will ultimately depend on when they decide to retire, non? The earliest they could get around to investigating the Kuparuk would be during the 2022/23 winter season, perhaps that will be the plan? | michaelsadvfn | |
04/11/2021 17:52 | That is probably the closing auction. Uncrosses at 16.35 daily unless extended. | dv01 | |
04/11/2021 17:23 | Dear All – just sweeping up a few points in no particular order. 1) Hi holism, posts #18740 and 18735: looks like you answered your own question! 2) Hi michaelsadvfn & dan de lion & PoS, posts #18751, #18721 and #18723: if you listen very carefully to the guidance contained within a couple of the answers given by management recently, they appear to have alighted upon a form of words which goes something like “and we plan to test the *untested* zones at Talitha #A.” Note how they don’t specify an exact number of horizons to be flow tested at Talitha #A. I suspect this is quite deliberate. My *opinion* is PANR management does not intend to revisit the Kuparuk at Talitha #A this coming winter season. We also know for certain that there’s no plan to target the Kuparuk at Theta West this season. I agree with michaelsadvfn’ That doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be an opportunistic bid for PANR after the three main operations within the upcoming programme are completed. Perhaps there will be an approach in 2022? Who knows? However, all things being equal and armed with the knowledge gained about the Kuparuk in March/April ’21 at Talitha #A, I’d *expect* the BoD to incorporate a drill (or drills) to investigate the Kuparuk in order to obtain the data required to advance up that value curve => obtain maximum possible value for shareholders on a future corporate/asset sale. Does that mean I see PANR remaining independent until at least summer/autumn ’23? Yep, I suppose it does. But I also suspect PANR will be quoted on the NASDAQ by that time and North American investors will know a great deal more about PANR then than they do now. Make of that what you will. For readers who weren’t following this thread in April, or who haven’t yet listened to the April webinar (I’d highly encourage watching it), the Kuparuk was diagnosed as being oil wet at Talitha rather than possessing the expected water wet characteristic which is the norm elsewhere on the North Slope. I’d take great care in consuming the content of johnswan193 on any given day but I’d advise taking *extra special care* when digesting *anything* he has to say about oil wet/water wet/April webinar/Kuparuk/choi My highly critical assessment of johnswan193’s opinion on the Kuparuk at Talitha is shared universally on this thread with the exception of two, maybe three other posters…… 3) The ANS crude price per barrel on 2/11/21 was $85.41 v’s Brent at $84.72. 4) bigdazzlerreturns2, post #18419: this inveterate punter continues to betray his complete and absolute ignorance of the fundamentals of capitalism and equity markets. What he describes in his post #18419 is the perfect description of a casino. He forgets, actually correct that, he has never educated himself about the way capitalism *creates* wealth, creates changes in perceived value. He lives in a pre- “Wealth of Nations” world combined with an immature notion of fixed money supply throughout the global economy. If ever you wished to see the clear blue water between a casino gambler and in investor, I invite you to compare bigdazzlerreturns2 This halfwit has poured venom on various PANR threads for years now. He ridicules fundamental investing so he deserves both barrels whenever he pops up. 5) Personal view. I'm not expecting anything coming out of COP26 to have much, if any, effect on the short/medium term PANR investment case. Perhaps I should be more nuanced than that....I'm not seeing anything in the reporting from COP26 which would serve to derail or even amend the financial or regulatory terms of a farm out agreement. We'll find out soon enough, I suppose. GLA | scot126 |
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