Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[content5827] 03/5/2024 10:18

Are you short helpful?

[mlf51] 03/5/2024 10:09

Cor blimey luvPorn or posturing Be honest

[helpfull] 03/5/2024 10:02

Cor blimey,guv!

"the worst of PANR wells are still million barrel wells"

Oh! The vanity.

olderwiser2 has been berating shareholders on 88e that well test results there are based on a few barrels of oil.

Well the news is Pantheon tests are based on little more (225 barrels) and over far greater dimensions.

The worst wells for Pantheon are dusters, if they ever get the finance sorted.

It would be a lie to post otherwise.

And then there would be the others that don't quite match the model.

Because that is what these reports represent, a model.

Remember that without a gas pipeline, which is very unlikely, Pantheon will be drilling 500+ dusters to stuff all that gas back down.

Two wells, Alkaid 2 and SMD re-entry.

Fragile data to base spending $35+ billion on.

Wait until the end of June.

Watch the funding outcome.

You might be averaging down again.

Be careful.

[olderwiser2] 03/5/2024 09:27

It is reassuring to see such a close alignment between PANR's estimates and the LKA IER
With LKA estimating 79.3 m barrels of salable liquids, over 78 wells, each well averages 1.017m barrels, interestingly very close to the conservative 1m PANR have used in their financial modeling, and the 1.2 m used in other models.

What gives this some context is the share price decline from £1.40 to £0.10, on the much exaggerated basis, and short thesis, that the ALK 2 long term flow test was not a commercial success, too much gas mostly condensate etc.
And the suggestion that these results would also apply to all the other reservoirs, (now disproven by the SMDB flow test results)
LKA have quite definitively now given their expert independent view that, the ZOI is a costed commercial success, expected to yield greater than 20% RoR.
Specifically 21.75% for the reserves based on the ALK 2 horizontal, and 27.69% for the contingent resources.
A first award of possible reserves of ~5m barrels, is a major affirmation, that the reservoir is viable, the tipping point to reserves being the demonstrated proven flow rates at ALK2 H. (IMO these are project FID away from being probable reserves)
Bear in mind these flow rates were sub optimal as the frack efficiency was only 20%, and PANR have demonstrated a 50% frack efficiency in their next attempt in the ALK 2 SMDB flow test. Which bodes well for the PANR modelling based on 40% frack efficiency

Looking at the GOR, there is a notable change, ALK2H showed 505 barrels and 2300mmcf/d, a GOR of 4560 cf/ barrel, while the LKA IER calculates out at 5341 cf/bl (423577984000cf/79.3 m bls). A bit higher than the actual results at ALK2H, but not a deal breaker

Simply put the worst of PANR wells are still million barrel wells, and million barrel wells stack up as viable as a stand alone reservoir, in the base case scenario.

To which can be added synergies with the stacked SMDB reservoir, with a PANR assessed 2m barrel recovery, with much lower GOR, and the potential to exceed base case towards high side case

The other notable ratio is the oil to NGLs, in ALK2H 180 bo plus 325 NGLs, ratio of 1:1.8 is compared to LKA IER of 43,300,000 bo plus 36,004,000 NGLs, ratio of 1: .83.
On the face of it this is a huge improvement, but I suspect it reflects a shift of condensate from the NGLs column to the oil column, clarification is required, as if a genuine change it will reflect in the 90% value attributed to the mix of oil, condensate and NGLs

This from the LKA IER stands out in regard to the possibly conservative nature of the assessment

“The estimates of reserves, resources and future net cash flow set forth in this report utilized the production results, completion efficiencies and fluid analysis from the long term production test of the Alkaid #2 horizontal.”

Bear in mind the completion efficiency was only 20%, I would also like to see this clarified, as to what efficiency LKA have used in their modeling. If a low efficiency has been input to the base case, the probability of a better result is high.

It is going to be a complex decision for PANR to make on the next move.
Allocate resources to the tried and true of the ZOI with a lower RoR, or back the SMDB with no long term flow test, but a much higher estimated RoR. Who knows maybe a hybrid of both

[turkey3] 03/5/2024 08:51

Haha spot on. Bloody phone

[turkey3] 03/5/2024 08:50

Stop on :-)

[michaelsadvfn] 03/5/2024 08:47

The amateur chartist, helpless, got it wrong again whilst the proper chartist, Forwood, got it right again......

Forwood 2 May '24 - 15:08 - 15453 of 15473 0 5 0

What we can see on the hourly chart, subservient to the daily, is a very oversold position on all indicators.

MACD is the lowest it has been in 6 months. RSI and stochastics repeating the lows from a couple of weeks ago, after which the share price shot up from 31 to 38+.

Shares have a habit of rebounding significantly when pushed down, particularly when there is no objective reason for their fall. Yesterday's IER report on the Ahpun ZOI confirmed and slightly increased the previous IER, and was a necessary step in progress on funding negotiations. It has been hijacked for no obvious reason by the short side to support a bear attack. That is already losing momentum, despite the false assertions of its promoters.

[seedoftongo] 02/5/2024 17:46

Peoples life savings are invested in this says Content …

😂😂😂😂8514;😂

Any sensible investor spreads their risk .
You don’t lump all in on an oiler unless you are very desperate .

[nigoil] 02/5/2024 17:44

Panr = Strong Sell...Why?...Dept!...No cash!........Simply as that!.....;-)

Cash call coming sooooooooooooon!

Simples!........;-)

[mlf51] 02/5/2024 17:17

Cor blimey luvEmbarrassing Be honest

[forwood] 02/5/2024 16:49

Yes, I think he should be considered a paid shill.

[content5827] 02/5/2024 16:43

Helpful has so much to say and makes so many incorrect predictions and yet cannot answer if he is short panr or if he his paid to trash talk panr.

[forwood] 02/5/2024 16:26

That $20m is no lie. You're conflating the plans for a full development of dozens of wells. There is already a well pad and other means to transport the oil.

As the LKA IER just demonstrated, Alkaid 2 and the ZOI in which it drilled is deemed commercial. Whose the liar, pretty pretty (useless)?

[mlf51] 02/5/2024 16:23

Cor blimey luvChart says 10p LMFAO.Be honest

[helpfull] 02/5/2024 16:09

Cor blimey, guv!

"It would only take c $20m to drill and start extracting oil from one well"

Don't lie too loudly, someone might hear.

Ignoring the need for a Hot Tap connection to the oil pipeline and a $50 million pad, how did the $34 million Alkaid 2 horizontal turn out?

Be careful.

[content5827] 02/5/2024 16:05

Helpful.
I will do best to take on board all that you say,despite your chronic track record,but would you mind telling me if you are paid to talk down panr or are you short panr?
Many thanks