Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[probabilityofsuccess] 15/11/2022 13:00

Hi JakNife. You previously said “We are waiting for the flow test. That's because we expect a significantly worse flow test result than you expect. Specifically, the most bullish flow that I expect is an initial flow of 1,200 BOPD falling to 900 BOPD after 6 months and 400 BOPD after 2 years. In total I'm forecasting less than $50m of revenues in the first two years (if it ever gets that far). I'm in good company and am not the only person making these forecasts”.

Noting that the company and many others think this constitutes commerciality (indeed only 750 bopd initial at that decline rate would validate the geology and the approach), do you stand behind this statement?

Also, I note on the Pro thread you believe there’s only a 10% chance of this happening? Or is that 10% just your probability of all exploration successes - in which case why are you treating this well/reservoir with equal weighting as all others in the exploration arena?

Genuinely, it appears from what you have written that you may not have been appraised of (or are interpreting differently) all the information presented by the company in the public domain. Success or not, I believe your odds of failure are wildly out of kilter with many others, so at least have a rethink/rebalance230;……before we await the indicative flow test results.

[bigdazzlerreturns2] 15/11/2022 12:44

Yes a log chart makes me much happier. I hope you use it for yourself in the future. Much more professional.

[forwood] 15/11/2022 12:36

Makes v little difference to the result bdr, and people can understand simple charts based on the actual price. On this the top line up-trend failed at 99, and we're a way off the bottom one which intercepts at support. Make you happy?

This is the log chart:

[amaretto1] 15/11/2022 12:27

MILA today is a classic example of what can happen....When you don't wait for results !!I'd rather pay 100 pence plus on a certainty.....Than see a bad RNS.

[bad gateway] 15/11/2022 11:53

Maybe though after an initial continuance of the bounce the stock does seem to have decided support should now become resistance

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[soggy] 15/11/2022 11:15

So, is that the shorting over - can I come out from under the blanket now or is their modus operandi to keep piling it on???

[forwood] 15/11/2022 11:07

Fair enough view hpcg but could say the same about many an oil exploration company.

PANR is addressing that with the current flow test, which the bulls hope will be successful.

Given
- Alkaid 1 previously flowed up to 100 barrels of oil in a 6ft interval, in a drill and test cut short by flooding, and

- those Alkaid 'contingent resources' were independently verified at 76.5m barrels by Lee Keeling Associates

- Baker Hughes cuttings from the current drill and company log data, both on the vertical and horizontal pipes, are confirmed by management to be better than expected. "Analysis of the logging while drilling (LWD) and gas chromatograph readings indicate that the improved reservoir parameters encountered in the vertical pilot hole have continued or improved in the horizontal well bore. This data further confirms the accuracy of Pantheon's geological models and provides the Company with greater confidence to predict reservoir tops and bottoms. As previously announced, initial analysis indicates significant improvements in reservoir quality which has the potential to lead to upgrades of the current resource estimates for all targeted horizons." RNS 18/8

- an assessed 80% chance of success by Telemachus (quite high!)


... I wouldn't want to be short going into the flow test results.

[probabilityofsuccess] 15/11/2022 10:52

“all the evidence suggests the oil doesn't flow in any substantial quantity”

Could you provide that evidence please……..and then share your (modelling?) assumptions on what you mean by “substantial” in the context of commercial.

Many thanks.

[shanig] 15/11/2022 10:52

Please highlight that evidence. I thought that is what the current flow tests are meant to determine.

[hpcg] 15/11/2022 10:47

alaniyons - the fundamentals of the company are it has no PE, no P/S and it trades at 3x book/tangible book. I'm short because all the evidence suggests the oil doesn't flow in any substantial quantity so that book value is negligible and that is the beginning and end of it.

[forwood] 15/11/2022 10:42

btw, stochastics on the daily has turned up. Think of it as an early warning of a change in sentiment.

[forwood] 15/11/2022 10:38

Depending where you draw the line (a somewhat arbitrary choice!) the long term up-trend was either broken at 92 or is still intact. Long term support at around 67.50 is where we bounced from yesterday, all shown in the daily chart below.

[forwood] 15/11/2022 10:30

No doubt with your expert knowlege, you'll appreciate this hourly chart Helpfull with MACD pointing up!