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[helpfull] 15/11/2022 15:54

Cor blimey, guv!

What is everyone complaining about?

The price fell yesterday and swendab1 made lots of money.

The price is falling today, so he is going to make more lots of money.

And he is probably showing all his mates in the guild how to make lots of money.

So why isn't everyone (be) happy?

Be careful.

[probabilityofsuccess] 15/11/2022 15:49

Thanks for your response Hpcg (I’ll be generous and assume the reference to ProbabilityofFailure was just you representing your view and not meant to be perjorative 😘)

……..so it’s your modelling of the commerciality threshold that differs from the the company’s and others then. What sensitivity factors have you used out of interest around POO, cost per well as number of wells increases etc. as that could materially affect commerciality and therefore your short positioning couldn’t it?

It’s interesting how there can be such a disparity of views on the commerciality threshold.

[rabito79] 15/11/2022 15:49

Because he is guessing. Clay is much more likely to cause issues with swelling in the near well bite area, than issues in the tubing. But less face it the facts have long left the building, misinformation is in control, this is Pro on steroids.

[bad gateway] 15/11/2022 15:47

Agree its all down to the flow rates but did note in their last update they had fluid flow in the thousands of barrels per day with an 8 to 12% oil cut.
Gives them c. 500BOPD on 5k of fluid flow during clean up so caution needed (with predictions) from bears as well as bulls imo.

[fordtin] 15/11/2022 15:44

hpcg

why would clay or conglomerates cause frac sand to flow to surface?

[madd_rip] 15/11/2022 15:41

So you're guessing at everything then, and if you say your posting is irrelevant, then why post with some added name calling?

[hpcg] 15/11/2022 15:38

ProbabilityofFailure - All the evidence suggest flow rates will not be economic - they keep reporting well blockages, and proppants being returned to the surface. I'm guessing - clay or conglomerates as the cause. Flow rates have to be better than e.g. West Texas horizontals as production and transport costs are much much much higher (people, consumables, equipment, export routes, weather down time).

What I think, what I write, what you think, what you write are all completely irrelevant. All that does count is the flow rate. If that isn't 4 figures or very close with a decline of circa 35 a month then the economics have not been demonstrated and at a minimum more test wells are required.

report to FCA: tick.

[poohbear1] 15/11/2022 15:38

Bull or bear? The geology will decide

[quazie12] 15/11/2022 15:37

The huge question for me is who is lending Muddy Waters and others the stock to enable them to take these positions exactly ?

[amaretto1] 15/11/2022 15:25

60s today ?

[padamster] 15/11/2022 15:11

He maybe UNDER Water at some point with his underhand antics

Be very careful

[amaretto1] 15/11/2022 15:08

Paper out tomorrow ??

[amaretto1] 15/11/2022 15:08

Looks like 60s today !! Muddy is a god

[padamster] 15/11/2022 15:01

Amaretto1 - is that a question you are asking the audience or do you have an answer? Bit of a silly post like the rest of your posts.