Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[kcowe] 26/11/2015 08:43

This is doing a break out dance to the downside....

[pug151] 26/11/2015 08:42

I think we have to trust RS to have negotiated a reasonable deal with them. His skin is in this.

[kcowe] 26/11/2015 08:40

Agreed 99Jeremiah... minimum is 6x .... what the maximum is is anyones guess.

[99jeremiah] 26/11/2015 08:34

Wulber, no it isnt. Their website mentions that they simply dont take on a case unless the claim is for at least 6x expected costs. Thereafter, what they will have negotiated as their share will be an entirely different calculation, IMO.

[kcowe] 26/11/2015 08:32

The mooted range and what will occur are totally different outcomes. all that is revealed that the lawyers take won't be more than total payout.so we don't know how much will be left in the pot.

[kcowe] 26/11/2015 08:29

The boredom drift has begun.. lets hope for an ARMS result to resuscitate the share price.30-31 December.

[netcurtains] 26/11/2015 08:29

the amount of bags is in proportion to the amount of risk.
8 bagger is probably 8:1 chance of happening.
Teaching mum to suck eggs.

[wulber] 26/11/2015 08:27

The mooted range for Calunius is 6 - 8 times their investment, so c. $36mn - $49mn .

[giant steps] 26/11/2015 08:26

KA, it's behind the moon and beyond the rain

[luckyman3] 26/11/2015 08:24

It's like watching paint dry on here..
Just switch off and wait for your RNS call.

[kun aguero1] 26/11/2015 08:20

there again, it could well be, somewhere, underneath the end of the rainbow.

[giant steps] 26/11/2015 08:13

JAF, some may prefer to think it is somewhere over the rainbow

[giant steps] 26/11/2015 07:57

Good morning maytrees.

[jaf1948] 26/11/2015 07:48

....actually, it's at the END of the rainbow, not behind, if indeed it is there at all.

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2015 07:40

you guys still looking for that pot of gold behind the rainbow....

[maytrees] 26/11/2015 07:29

Good morning GS and all

[kcowe] 26/11/2015 07:21

Calunus are taking all the risk here. and doing all the work. I have a feeling their slice is going to be bigger than we think.

[wulber] 26/11/2015 07:16

Youre probably right in the $400 mn mark, but would love a surprise to the upside!$400mn - $50mn calunus / $1.51 / 715 mn shares in issue = 32p ps.I can live with an 8 bagger from here.

[loverat] 26/11/2015 06:15

papillon's comments about the 2010 proposed investment RNS are interesting and you can see the logic. My feeling is that any award would be around the same level he has estimated.

I don't think the arbitrators would acknowledge full acceptance of such an argument in the judgement though as I believe it is closer to the 'sunk costs' method arguments (even though the investment never completed) used in hearings before of returning companies to where they were before - rather than consideration of future profit and where it could be now.

I remember lifting these paragraphs from one of Orgasmic Beef's post about one case. The first two paragraphs the response of the claimant against Bolivia's 'sunk costs' valuation argument and the final paragraph explaining how the tribunal widely accepts the Discounted Cssh Flow (DCF) method.

My feeling is that the defence would have raised what Papillion has said about the proposed placing, amongst other arguments. I think the panel would keep this 'in mind' when determining an award and use it to 'steer' the award down to what they think it should be, given the lower awards than claimed in the past.

I think this is what Papillion is saying although I'm just elaborating on how it could factor in the thought process.

'Third, the Claimants contend that Bolivia's proposed valuation method does not assess the FMV of the investment nor does it restore the Claimants to the
position they would have been in had the unlawful act not occurred. Citing
Ripinsky and Williams, the Claimants submit that it is wrong to assume that the
historic cost of an investment reflects its market value.

In addition, the sunk costs method is inappropriate because "it pretends to put the Claimants in the position they would have been in if the investment had never occurred. [...] Yet the investment did take place, it did produce profits, and it would have continued on that path had it not been for Bolivia’s wrongful acts."


344.
The Tribunal notes that the DCF method is widely accepted as the appropriate
method to assess the FMV of going concerns with a proven record of profitability. The World Bank Guidelines on the Treatment of Foreign Direct Investment, cited by both Parties,suggest that the market value of an expropriated investment may be determined "for a going concern with a proven record of profitability, on the basis of the discounted cash flow value."
This approach has been endorsed by a large number of investment tribunals'.

[festario] 26/11/2015 00:21

I know that feeling! Not told her about 'our' PRG shares yet. That diamond I promised her will have to wait a while longer...

[papillon] 26/11/2015 00:06

Festario. LOL. Married for 46 years; to the same woman! No wonder I believe in freedom of speech on these bb's! LOL.