Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 17/6/2022 11:21

Thanks Harry, good to know. The markets are no doubt offering some extraordinary bargains atm, for those either clever or lucky enough to see them. On basis of the chart alone, this may be one of them.

[harry s truman] 17/6/2022 11:13

Brucie,

As Dom explains a bid depends very much upon whether the people with the deep pockets want to spend the money or not. RBC (who follow OXB) think we are now below the price where even non-pharma buyers will be tempted.

All I would add is that the IC don't really favour OXB - I think they got burnt during the Kingsman days and remember that.

The broker targets are still way above where we are now

[harry s truman] 17/6/2022 11:08

That excellent contribution probably says more about you than I can Ice, but true to form...


icejelly - 22 Feb 2022 - 13:09:26 - 2594 of 3347 OXB. One owner, FSH Excellent condition with ejector seat - OXB

Harry has stopped posting.
The share price is going up.
Both.....at the moment.
Smile!

[brucie5] 17/6/2022 11:04

Harry S Truman17 Jun '22 - 10:56 - 3344 of 3344
0 0 0
That's great Brucie, but unless you absolutely "knew" that there would be no news from OXB re contracts, then it was just a shot in the dark which turned out to be correct really wasn't it?
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Well not exactly; any share price prognostic contains an element of chance, but I recall this particular bit of stock price behaviour being based on research I read - possibly in the IC. If a share falls more than 50%, it is more likely than not to fall to 25% of peak price. And for me this is now axiomatic, unless I know why it should definitely no be the case. Which is why i mention it again now: I would expect this to be good base. Trouble is, I can't see enough yet to attract me to it. And no dividend, of course, which for me is a great attraction at present moment. The markets being particularly oppressive towards growth stories.

So there remains a bid? What likelihood of this, and by whom? AZN obvious suspect, I guess.

[icejelly] 17/6/2022 11:01

I find this more interesting than the daily comment about whether the share price is up or down.

[harry s truman] 17/6/2022 10:56

That's great Brucie, but unless you absolutely "knew" that there would be no news from OXB re contracts, then it was just a shot in the dark which turned out to be correct really wasn't it?

I've held OXB for a very long time and so have seen many ups and downs, but it still amazes me that OXB can announce record best ever results, give what was an excellent presentation with no negatives and then see their share price continue to plummet on the back of some vaccine news which isn't even our main business.

OXB are in very good shape. I tried to point out in an earlier post that if you have more cash than outstanding loan, then there isn't really a debt issue but when everybody wants to see doom then you just have to weather it out.

I hope they can do something in the next fortnight to make the interims presentation a bit more interesting, but of course they can still talk about what happened after the reporting period but before the presentation.

[brucie5] 17/6/2022 10:28

Some months ago I suggested that this would fall to £4, in view its descent below 50% of its peak price. It now has. I say this without any knowledge of whether the business case deserves to be lower or higher, but simply as a function of Mr. Market's observable behaviour. From that viewpoint, the share may well have based. It hasn't been this low since March 2020, and then previously in 2017.

[chillpill] 17/6/2022 10:25

I love a bit of Benjamin Graham combined with a bit of Warren and Charlie!

[dominiccummings] 17/6/2022 10:08

There has been a dearth of new deals, which is partly responsible for the size of the drop, even though various execs have claimed large numbers in the pipeline. Clearly Covid will have affected the progress of these (usually complex) deals but it may not be the only thing.
My own take on the lack of new deals harks back to my experience in the recession of the early nineties, when I was running an I.T. firm. The trigger then was Britain falling out of the scheme to shadow the Euro. We were reasonably happy ticking along with a modestly reduced summertime turnover, when after the crash out of the Euro system in October our turnover halved rather than increased. Salesmen claimed they had been assured their orders were just slightly delayed, no problem! Then turnover halved again in November. It was disaster. It turned out that these huge customers, balance sheets awash with cash, had received the message from top management to curb spending and hold orders. They didn't NEED cash but there was so much confusion that they all took this action.
My point is that although big pharma are awash with cash, it doesn't mean they are in a mood to spend it. New contracts may well have been delayed, or slowed.

[marcusl2] 17/6/2022 09:59

Addex Terminates Dipraglurant Phase 2b/3 Study in Patients with Dyskinesia Associated with Parkinson’s Disease due to Slow Recruitment Rate

[harry s truman] 17/6/2022 09:18

CP,

I suspect everyone here wants your rebalancing scenario to be correct, but Monday will prove that one way or the other and if you are correct then nobody will be more pleased than me.

However, there is an awful lot more going on in the world / market at the moment and almost everybody seems to be getting swept along with it.

What OXB needs more than anything is good news. I absolutely understand why there was a drought of that during the pandemic. Trials need emergency beds on standby and when those are all reserved for covid then there are no trials (other than covid trials).

That said, people are back doing trials now and there should be a backlog of people wanting OXB's services. I'd remind you of the somewhat obvious point that if OXB could have produced a single piece of new work good news in the last 5 months then we probably wouldn't have been bounced out of the 250. Two pieces of news and to my mind we definitely wouldn't.

Anyway, WTO owner China is still welding people inside their homes in the attempt to "defeat" a virus whilst here we are still negotiating to get people back to work. Interesting times.

[marcusl2] 17/6/2022 09:01

Perhaps you are taking Benjamin Graham out of context.

[chillpill] 17/6/2022 08:27

I’ve never thought about biotech companies on an NTA value before but I think OXB is trading v close to that right now.

[steeplejack] 17/6/2022 06:41

Oft quoted comments about the stockmarket being a weighing machine are platitudinous often because for extended periods,bad timing and lack of resources mean investors are obliged to cut and run.Over the years,i've witnessed valuations that are just plain wrong.For example,some years ago,EMC,a data storage darling of Wall St,plunged at one point by some 85% from its peak to around 3 dollars a share and half that figure was cash in the balance sheet.EMC subsequently recovered and was ultimately taken over.The market is awash with similar examples.Babies are frequently thrown out with the bathwater.In a world full of pathogens,experience suggests OXB is probably fast approaching a level that makes it an outstandingly good long term investment but maybe i'm guilty of being a tad platitudinous.

[harry s truman] 17/6/2022 00:32

CP, first of all my hearty congratulations on post 3333.

Secondly, I agree with what you say about our relegation, but I think SJ is looking at why the whole market is seeing a lot of selling (and I agree with that too).

I've honestly never had anything to do with crypto, but I will admit to watching from the side-lines with a Roger Moore eyebrow as $2tn has just evaporated from that "better than gold" currency. To put that sum into prospective, it's almost exactly the GDP of Italy. Something that big is going to have a knock on effect.

I dread to think how much money from how many people has just gone now, and perhaps the saddest part is that most small retail crypto investors are young people who have been sucked into it by social media and the like.

It said in the FT the other day that if Bitcoin drops much further then the mining will stop because there is a point where the electricity costs more than the product.

I've heard all the arguments about the failings of FIAT currencies and such, but but anybody who bought bitcoin at $60k at the end of last year is now sat 33% of that in what seems to be a very illiquid market.

There are some parallels here with OXB's fall from favour (same period / similar percentage loss), but regardless of what my shares are worth I still own that same tiny fraction of OXB. I can see what I own and have a good overview of what they do and their prospects. I can't see what others see in the crypto coins other than Bill Gates's point that the next guy will be willing to pay more.

So, aside from the war in the Ukraine, mad inflation from the energy price shock and the mad money printing of covid ("we can defeat a virus") we now have a massive wobbling currency spinning loose in the market.

On the upside here, there are a lot of big pharma companies which are now hugely cash rich. That cash will get murdered by inflation long term now (and possibly even windfall tax grabbed by Rishi), so if they don't buy their own shares back then surely the obvious option is an acquisition?

[chillpill] 16/6/2022 22:15

The main reason for the fall is that it is now out of the FTSE 250. It was announced at the start of the month. All rebalancing has to be done by tomorrow’s close.
Generally stocks bounce after this forced selling happens.

[joestalin] 16/6/2022 21:12

Bitcoin is about to tank and these losers are trying to get rid of them.

[stocktastic] 16/6/2022 19:51

"Perhaps not stocktastic, but the revenue from all of those projects already secured is very unlikely to be less than..."

I dont know. There tends to be quite some attritiin rate.

What does NVS give OXB quarterly out of interest?
That gives some measure

I agree more contracts willl come in. No question

[stocktastic] 16/6/2022 19:47

"It was clearly 'hinted' at the time. They were 'buying' secured production using OxBox phase 2. Presumably, there will be orders to supply once finished."

Thanks Pram.
Makes sense and adds weight to my suggestion

I do though question the last part.
Imo many conpanies placed bets in what was a very uncertain time.
Those orders and plans may have gone away?

[steeplejack] 16/6/2022 19:24

Institutions will be selling for the very simple reason that individuals will be giving instructions to redeem their holdings obliging the unit trusts etc to top slice their holdings.There is a wave of redemptions hitting the securities industry,a veritable tsunami,as over leveraged punters fed on ten years of cheap money run for cover.The wave is hitting the beach right now and there's more to come.The cryptocurrency boom (speculation of the purest form)was enough to send cold shivers down the spine.For now,there's no common sense evaluation of an equity's intrinsic worth,just a 'run for the hills' mentality.This is,of course,how the rich get richer and the poor get stuffed.It was ever thus.

[harry s truman] 16/6/2022 18:25

Many thanks for the translation Plutonian. Something else to hope for with that then.

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 18:04

That would be valuable

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 17:58

"...the contributions may not dramatically increase in the near term."

Perhaps not stocktastic, but the revenue from all of those projects already secured is very unlikely to be less than (say) last year without AZ? But there WILL be more new orders no doubt some with up fronts.