Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 16/6/2022 19:24

Institutions will be selling for the very simple reason that individuals will be giving instructions to redeem their holdings obliging the unit trusts etc to top slice their holdings.There is a wave of redemptions hitting the securities industry,a veritable tsunami,as over leveraged punters fed on ten years of cheap money run for cover.The wave is hitting the beach right now and there's more to come.The cryptocurrency boom (speculation of the purest form)was enough to send cold shivers down the spine.For now,there's no common sense evaluation of an equity's intrinsic worth,just a 'run for the hills' mentality.This is,of course,how the rich get richer and the poor get stuffed.It was ever thus.

[harry s truman] 16/6/2022 18:25

Many thanks for the translation Plutonian. Something else to hope for with that then.

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 18:04

That would be valuable

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 17:58

"...the contributions may not dramatically increase in the near term."

Perhaps not stocktastic, but the revenue from all of those projects already secured is very unlikely to be less than (say) last year without AZ? But there WILL be more new orders no doubt some with up fronts.

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 17:55

Who knows!?

It was clearly 'hinted' at the time. They were 'buying' secured production using OxBox phase 2. Presumably, there will be orders to supply once finished.

(Complete speculation gigabit, but they were very impressed with the company's expertise. Perhaps they have some more complex manufacturing in mind, or they know of a preference for UK manufacture for something).

[gigabit] 16/6/2022 17:47

#233 - or maybe looking at a way to acquire VMIC but got outflanked so now holding expensive shares in OXB with no plan. They have signed an MoU with OXB but that has no legal force. It's just a vague statement of what might be, at some undefined point in the future. It seems unlikely that they would want to manufacture vaccines in the UK. Why do that when there is plenty of capacity in India at much lower cost?

[plutonian] 16/6/2022 17:29

Good find Harry,

It looks like Zara has been developing an HIV vaccine with the Jenner Institute using the same Adenovirus platform we helped commercialise for the AZ COVID19 vaccine.

It looks like the first attempt failed to produce a stable vaccine, but they are pretty sure they know why it failed and how to avoid the problem in the future.

[stocktastic] 16/6/2022 17:24

It is often stated how Serum invested at £15 per share

We know Serum got shares for that and they stated it as a 'strategic investment'

... but how and why?

There's not much strategic about it unless it gives them more
A. Sure, it would give Serum a leg up if they wanted to buy OXB. Not much though
It would also help a little if they wanted to try and defend against another party bidding - in theory

B. More strategic is if they feel or already agree that the stake also gives them future options re manufacturing or tech.
Possible that the stake was bought with a view to Serum sending vax busimess OXB's way.
Who knows!?

Point being - Serum will clearly regret the price paid
Whether they regret having a stake and no lomger need it, or... if they very much still see and plan linked benefits? All unknown

[harry s truman] 16/6/2022 15:25

Paper by Zara Hannoun - Senior Scientist - Oxford Biomedica

Adenovirus DNA Polymerase Loses Fidelity on a Stretch of Eleven Homocytidines during Pre-GMP Vaccine Preparation

to download the PDF.

I had a quick look but only heard the whooshing noise as it went over my head.

[stocktastic] 16/6/2022 14:16

Pram
Those are already known and the contributions may not dramatically increase in the near term.

What would trigger a doubling - particularly against the backdrop of a market crash?

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 13:14

Contracts with Novartis, Bristol Myers Squib, Boehringer, Beam, Santen, Orchard, AZ, and others. You can find all those on their website can't you. All cash paying, at significant margins. More in the pipeline, a pipeline that has been disrupted by Covid.
If you genuinely don't know that, you are even dimmer than I thought.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 12:33

Bottom line for survival here are cash paying lucrative contracts.......The only one in OXB's history is AZN....which was short lived and now defunct.Where I do agree with Harry is that the the interim dialogue will be embarrassing, disappointing and brief.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 12:03

Of course it will DC....... don't just talk about it........fill yer boots now before it's too late, and you miss out on doubling your money........and then tripling it.
Are your piles telling you all this baloney?

[harry s truman] 16/6/2022 11:48

CP,

I think that long term you are laughing, but short term there are a lot of uncertainties, most of which are actually external to OXB.

I bought a few more (after saying many times that I had enough already) at a higher price than this (just before the results) but I really have all that I want now.

I have most of the doom-mongers filtered, but from what I remember their main issue wasn't that LentiVector doesn't work or that there isn't a fast growing market for all the vector types that OXB now offer, it mostly revolves around the loan.

OXB have said numerous times that the loan is a short term loan and will be paid off on its date. They have the money to do that now and technically would have been OK without it, but they cannot run down the cash so low with one big spend and allow nothing for contingency - hence the short term loan.

If I remember correctly, the cost to OXB for 80% of Homology's manufacturing business (including transfer of AAV IP) is £134m which included a large lump for 3 years of operating expenses / working cash until expected profitability.

So, OXB had £109m cash in the bank on the last day of December, plus what they have earned since. I've no idea on that sum so we will just say at least £109m and forget 5 months of earnings.

Their net take from the new shares bought by NN and others was £76.8m.

The Oaktree loan was £64m.

So (bear with me here) £109m cash + £76.8m placing + £64m loan + earning since year end = minimum £250m.

Cost of Boston plant including 3 years operating expenses £134m.

Minimum £250m available - £134m = £116m.

That £116m needs to refurbish some offices as labs and complete the second half of OxBox (a lot of which has already gone out of previous accounts) and pay off the Oaktree loan which is essentially £64m + 8% + a fee. I'm guessing £70m.

So my point here is that the £116m would pay off the £70m now and leave £46m + whatever earned this year to finish OxBox and rework the other buildings, but OXB weren't prepared to run the cash that low - so didn't.

It was never a loan to "keep going" it was a contingency to keep a big lump of cash supporting us against the unforeseen.

Similarly Stuart has told all the analysts (those who still have the big target forecasts) that this year will be worse than 2021 but better than 2020. 2020 was not a bad year for OXB and this year will be better than that, so there is your insurance.

It will be OK, but OXB need news of what is going to be done in all of this available space. Once they have that then there will be a reverse ferret, but at the moment the great unwashed think that OXB is only a coronavirus vaccine company which needed a loan to keep going.

[dominiccummings] 16/6/2022 11:41

This will double over the next 2 months, then stable until autumn when it will rise to around £12.
I have more reason for the above conclusion than badger has for his verbal diarrhoea.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 11:36

Unbelievable that the management have got the bare faced cheek to award themselves free cost options back in April. It wouldn't be so bad if they were incentived by a performance related share price target.......but they're not....No.....More snouts taking freebies out of an ever shrinking trough, at the expense of Mr. Mug Shareholder.

[chillpill] 16/6/2022 11:06

I’ve just bt some more. Might go lower but on a one year view should make good money.

[harry s truman] 16/6/2022 10:25

All good points Marcus, but it's not the institutions / major shareholders selling. If it were then we would have well-meaning people helpfully reminding us of that every hour on the hour.

You hit the nail on the head in your post, which is that the issue is lack of news. In 5 months our news (other than the manufacturing purchase) has been that someone else has had their trial halt lifted which will mean more work for us if this stage of their trial continues well.

That's really not good enough. As someone famous once said, if you hide your light under a bushel then most people will just assume that you have no light.

I do think that at some point the dam breaks and we get quite a bit of news in a relatively short period of time, which will average out to a normal year. Unfortunately that's not much compensations for a no news battering in the runup to that.

Somehow they need to get something out in the next fortnight else Stuart and Roch's list of achievements in H1 at the interim results presentation is going to be brief.

[gigabit] 16/6/2022 09:48

I'd be interested to see a breakdown of the prediction of GBP 16 million per month. That is not realistic and overstating a case only weakens it.

[marcusl2] 16/6/2022 09:24

As things are pretty dire atm, just a reminder of a few positives;


Serum bought at £14.78 per share, some really exciting projects listed below including Cystic fibrosis, all of the TCRS and Car Ts.

Car T 5T4 is close to the clinic and therefore hopefully a nice licensing deal. Three liver gene therapies and if they use our Lenti, T-Charge looks exciting. Maybe Parkinson`s deal next year.

Surely further deals for manufacturing are close.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 08:55

I certainly can't see OXB staying above 4 quid a share for too much longer.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 08:46

Shatter
Fundraiser......Not only when(September) ....but how much and at what price.
At the cash burn rate and next March loan repayment, OXB are going through circa 200 Mio pa(as from April this year).....or 16-17ish Mio per month, with diddly squat revenue.
Already indebted (70 Mio incl interest).....Perhaps a realistic, given the high risk / reward September share issuance is 100 Mio at 200 PPS.....which including the paltry revenue should just see them through to next March.........but unless their fortunes significantly improve the begging bowl will be out again much sooner.