Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 01/7/2022 10:17

You've obviously irked one of our blue fellow travellers this morning squids.

The very condensed version of my take on this morning's RNS would be to say that we are going to bank some money based on AZ vaccine work for the year half ended yesterday.

(" In accordance with the terms of the original agreement and inclusive of revenues for batches already manufactured in the first half of 2022, Oxford Biomedica expects to recognise aggregate revenues of approximately GBP30 million from AstraZeneca in the current financial year.").

I've honestly no idea what OXB's margin is, but if it's 33% then we have £10m from this work which almost nobody was expecting.

I don't know what is coming next with regard to AZ and coronavirus, but if they want another jab tailored for the '23 season then we are reserved for that.

(" today announces that it has signed a new three year Master Services & Development Agreement ("the Agreement") with AstraZeneca UK Ltd ("AstraZeneca") which would facilitate potential future manufacturing opportunities for the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. ").

OXB won't be reserving suites for nothing. So either they are just agreeing to put future work in the queue should AZ want it ("opportunities"), or AZ are paying something allowing them to bag future slots.

Anyway - and regardless of the ins and outs - we got some good news today about work and revenue which we haven't had for a long time now (5th Jan) so I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.

[chillpill] 01/7/2022 10:00

Sorry I don’t really understand the hang-up with OXB- it has been in the top 10% of British Biotech’s. Yes could have been more successful but not bad overall.

[squidsgone] 01/7/2022 09:46

Sort of a non-announcement in my eyes, no commitment other than the OXB capacity is there if AZN want it. A lack of any fee for that suggests AZN we're not willing to pay to for the option. Future volumes and pricing would be the real announcement.

[harry s truman] 01/7/2022 09:29

squids,

If you're reckless enough to want my opinion, then I think all previous pandemics have been self-limiting and so why would this last one (if it ever was as bad as the newspapers / government / non-medical scientists said for the average person) be any different?

I don't think OXB ever promised anywhere that this would go on forever. That's just something which has been inferred by others and of course an awful lot of the press only knew OXB as this vaccine supplier who Johnson visited when he wasn't socialising.

However, what Roch did promise (20th April webcast) was that there would be some kind of continuation after the initial contract ended and that the extension would be "when and not if". Today they came good on that.

The upside here for me with this one is that a) OXB have come good on a promised target (eventually - though to be fair this would be 100% AZ's timing) and to note that none of the covering analysts include anything for AZ in their targets. So we just learned (as did they) that there will be our margin on £30m going to the bottom line in 2022.

A little bit of good news there which perhaps Peel Hunt, RBC and the others will acknowledge soon.

As for me, I can tick an item off my running wishlist:-

1) News from AZ re covid vaccine (Roch said when not if) - DELIVERED 1st July 2022.

2) More LV deals for Oxford.

3) New AAV deals for Boston (2 promised before year end by Roch).

4) Whatever Serum are planning under this Memorandum of understanding signed with OXB about building their footprint in the UK as mentioned by Stuart? (we can probably guess vaccine work in OxBox but they need to say).

5) OXB / Novartis RNS (re need for more vector for CAR-T after approval in FL would be nice).

6) Partner the in-house CAR-T drug - OXB-302 Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (they are preparing for clinical trial which Roch said we are NOT! going to do ourselves so surely they must have somebody lined up).

7) Partner something re in vivo CAR-T (is this basically T-Charge?) / confirmation from Novartis that their T-Charge program uses Lentivector.

8) One of our liver drugs partnered OXB-40X/Y/Z (early stage but somebody might want to licence).

9) News from any of our partners who are in the clinic with our tech (vague I realise but you never know as we have a lot of partners).

10) Relicense the PD drug as they say they have 2 companies waiting for the legal end with Sio (I'm think this won't be quick, but you never know).

[badger60] 01/7/2022 09:25

Let's be fair....at least AZN haven't binned OXB's manufacturing services, but I would argue that the revenues, if OXB are contracted, would be far lower than they previously enjoyed........which is exactly what I said in #342.

[steeplejack] 01/7/2022 09:15

"better than a kick in the nuts".........not in all cases.

[badger60] 01/7/2022 08:31

chillpill
What, you mean like being an OXB shareholder....because you certainly need a positive disposition for that.......
imo future AZN Vax production volumes will be far less than when covid was rampant before and jab regulations were far stricter than now. You can fly into the UK unvaxxed, no quarantine, and walk straight through......and also fly out unvaxxed.......and let's hope that AZN have got their Vax blood clotting problems sorted out........

[chillpill] 01/7/2022 08:24

I’m sorry if life has dragged you down. Few things in life are better than a positive disposition.

[badger60] 01/7/2022 08:19

No definite orders then....just "if and when" maybes....but better than a kick in the nuts.

[squidsgone] 01/7/2022 08:17

Not the AZN news I was hoping for, no post 2022 firm volumes/revenues.

[badger60] 01/7/2022 08:10

seanjeIt takes one to know one.......so welcome to my world....

[badger60] 01/7/2022 08:08

Look at the wording...."which would facilitate POTENTIAL future manufacturing opportunities".
No guaranteed contract. AZN may well have similar deals with other manufacturers....

.".........with AstraZeneca UK Ltd ("AstraZeneca") which would facilitate potential future manufacturing opportunities for the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. ......."

[badger60] 01/7/2022 08:01

Good for OXB, let's hope that the demand for product matches or exceeds that from last time. Without this OXB would have been dead in the water.

[qnq] 01/7/2022 07:54

As I said, oxb is unique. less than a handful of companies globally are fda approved to manufacture vectors.
acquisition target.
Today's 3 year deal with Astra confirms my views. unique offerings and astra will continue with the covid jabs after addressing the clot issues.
at this price its gifted.
Buy the dip.
target 1500 pence.

[chillpill] 01/7/2022 07:22

I think as long as AZ produce the vaccine OXB will get business. It is well known they are a preferred counterparty.

[gareth jones] 01/7/2022 07:19

Nice to see AZ contract extention (perhaps that’s why the 52.5K ordinary trade yesterday?) but it is only on a need by need basis. No idea of how much need there will be and no hard figures that the market likes? Let’s see what the market thinks at 8am.

[chillpill] 01/7/2022 07:13

Great to have the confirmation through from AZ. It has been well known they have been a preferred manufacturer for AZ so as long as they are committed to production OXB was likely to get a renewal.

It’s a nice little cash cow.

[badger60] 01/7/2022 02:18

What I'm curious to know is for how much longer LTH's are prepared to subscribe for newly issued shares to keep the company solvent and "working"?
Despite 130Mio quids worth of new equity in the last 10 months and a 64 Mio quid loan, the share price is less than 10p in pre-consolidated value......after 30 years and 100's mios in cash burn.
Arguably OXB has only ever been a lifestyle company since its listing on the stock exchange.

[badger60] 01/7/2022 01:50

As it stands, imo, OXB are on the precipice of having to severely cut back on staff and research, including redundant buildings if they want to still be around in a few years time.
The share price performance not only reflects the inept OXB management agenda, but the broader bio declines also reflect which way the industry is heading in general.
You'll end up with a dozen (maybe less) big pharma, and all the rest will be pants. I find it ironic that for the first time that OXB has ever made a few bob, that it has catalysed its permanent demise going forward.

[marcusl2] 30/6/2022 21:58

Hedge funds are hunting for bargains in the beaten-down biotechnology sector, betting that a vicious sell-off has run its course and that lower valuations will breathe life back into deal flow.

A Nasdaq index of biotech stocks has tumbled almost a third from its all-time high last August, as hopes about the Covid-19 pandemic boosting the industry gave way to worries about frothy share prices. The sharp sell-off has, in turn, left many companies struggling to raise new funding.

However, some hedge fund managers now believe that prices have fallen too far relative to firms’ drug development prospects and their remaining cash levels. Those investors have started buying up stocks on the cheap, or launching portfolios to capitalise on the turmoil.

“This is the worst correction [in the biotech sector] I have seen in my 22-year career”, said Michele Gesualdi, founder of London-based investment group Infinity Investment Partners. “We have never seen stress like this.”

Gesualdi’s firm, which manages $1.5bn in assets, recently launched a new fund specifically to focus on opportunities in the life sciences sector. He added that the sector is, on all metrics, “as cheap as it has ever been”.


Industry insiders attributed the sell-off in the sector in part to the departure of so-called tourist investors who do not specialise in biotech but who were hunting for returns during the early stages of the pandemic. Investors have also grown concerned about regulatory scrutiny of dealmaking and the possibility that companies may start to run out of funding.

The ensuing market reversal has proved particularly difficult for a sector that had grown accustomed to record-low interest rates and a seemingly never-ending equity bull market. Such companies’ future profits are highly valued when interest rates are near zero, but appear less so when borrowing costs rise.

“Coming out of the Covid tunnel, seeing inflation rise at [a] higher pace than predicted by any central bank, the [biotech] sector has faced unexpected adversity,” said Philippe Wolgen, chief executive of Australian biotech Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, whose share price has fallen from almost A$45 in September to A$15 (US$10).

After a “catastrophic” fall in the sector, fund managers and bankers “are openly expressing their aversion to perpetuating these risky ventures”, he added, referring to backing companies with little prospect of revenues in the near term. However, he said investors were starting to look at “genuine business[es]” in the sector.

Mergers and acquisitions activity, meanwhile, traditionally a major support for valuations as big pharmaceutical companies look for ways of building their drugs pipeline, has also dried up. The deal count in 2022 has fallen to its lowest level for the opening six months of a year in more than a decade, according to Evaluate Pharma.

The sell-off has hit some specialist healthcare hedge funds hard. One of the highest-profile funds to suffer is New York-based Perceptive Advisors, which lost about 32 per cent last year and is down 35 per cent this year to late June, according to numbers sent to investors and a person familiar with the performance.

California-based Endurant Capital, run by Vietnamese trader Quang Pham, lost 6.8 per cent in its Health Master fund this year to the end of May, although it has made back some ground in June. Last year San Francisco-based Asymmetry Capital shut after losses, with its founder highlighting how difficult life had become for small, biotech-focused funds.

Nevertheless, some managers believe now is the right time to build exposure to the sector.

“It’s the one area where there’s been complete and utter capitulation,” said Andrew Clifford, chief executive of Sydney-based Platinum Asset Management, which manages $14bn in assets. The firm is launching an EU-regulated version of a health sciences fund it already manages, as it tries to profit from the sell-off.

SYZ Capital has also been adding to its positions in funds trading the sector, and sees opportunities in the US and, longer term, in China. “We are positive on biotech”, said Cedric Vuignier, head of liquid alternative managed funds.

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UBS’s hedge fund unit O’Connor earlier this year hired a team from Alera Partners to run a new strategy betting on rising and falling prices and focused on healthcare therapeutics. The strategy is part of O’Connor’s multi-strategy fund, but could eventually be launched as a separate fund, said a person familiar with the firm’s plans.

“Healthcare is a perfect example of where we want to be exposed,” said chief investment officer Kevin Russell, who believes there is capacity for more than $1tn of deals in the sector as pharma companies try to build their drug pipeline.

Russell added that there had been “very little distinguishing between stocks” by investors.

“We think [this] is a function of a lack of experience and scientific knowledge” among investors, and should present opportunities for O’Connor to make money betting on rising and falling prices, he said.

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[marcusl2] 30/6/2022 15:07

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