Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 16/6/2022 10:25

All good points Marcus, but it's not the institutions / major shareholders selling. If it were then we would have well-meaning people helpfully reminding us of that every hour on the hour.

You hit the nail on the head in your post, which is that the issue is lack of news. In 5 months our news (other than the manufacturing purchase) has been that someone else has had their trial halt lifted which will mean more work for us if this stage of their trial continues well.

That's really not good enough. As someone famous once said, if you hide your light under a bushel then most people will just assume that you have no light.

I do think that at some point the dam breaks and we get quite a bit of news in a relatively short period of time, which will average out to a normal year. Unfortunately that's not much compensations for a no news battering in the runup to that.

Somehow they need to get something out in the next fortnight else Stuart and Roch's list of achievements in H1 at the interim results presentation is going to be brief.

[gigabit] 16/6/2022 09:48

I'd be interested to see a breakdown of the prediction of GBP 16 million per month. That is not realistic and overstating a case only weakens it.

[marcusl2] 16/6/2022 09:24

As things are pretty dire atm, just a reminder of a few positives;


Serum bought at £14.78 per share, some really exciting projects listed below including Cystic fibrosis, all of the TCRS and Car Ts.

Car T 5T4 is close to the clinic and therefore hopefully a nice licensing deal. Three liver gene therapies and if they use our Lenti, T-Charge looks exciting. Maybe Parkinson`s deal next year.

Surely further deals for manufacturing are close.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 08:55

I certainly can't see OXB staying above 4 quid a share for too much longer.

[badger60] 16/6/2022 08:46

Shatter
Fundraiser......Not only when(September) ....but how much and at what price.
At the cash burn rate and next March loan repayment, OXB are going through circa 200 Mio pa(as from April this year).....or 16-17ish Mio per month, with diddly squat revenue.
Already indebted (70 Mio incl interest).....Perhaps a realistic, given the high risk / reward September share issuance is 100 Mio at 200 PPS.....which including the paltry revenue should just see them through to next March.........but unless their fortunes significantly improve the begging bowl will be out again much sooner.

[harry s truman] 14/6/2022 18:50

Hello again Phil,

I was just reading this (Novartis conference poster presentation)



I honestly don't understand it in anything other than a very rough idea, but if you look at the banner at the top it says in a couple (or three) places that they use the same lentiviral vector as CD019 (which is us).

[philh75] 14/6/2022 18:45

Thanks Harry. Yes, I would have thought for third parties to get the benefit of the Novartis platform then all components of that platform including the fda approved vector would be used. Sounds interesting.

[harry s truman] 14/6/2022 18:41

Two diagrams

[harry s truman] 14/6/2022 18:34

Hello Phil,

If you want my 2 cents (brave man) then T-Charge is an evolution of what they do already, i.e. instead of transduction (the bit where lentivector programs the white blood cells) then growing on in a bioreactor before being purified and put back into the patient, they just transfect the cells then put a very pure but much smaller amount back into the patient and miss out the bioreactor step.

So for laymen (like me) bioreactor expansion become in-vivo expansion.

I believe it will still be our vector because that is the one tied to the Novartis approval for the original process which this is an improved version of.

The obvious question here is will the 3rd parties approaching Novartis want to use the same approved vector or try their arm with something new?

[philh75] 14/6/2022 18:16

Do we think Oxb produce the viral vector for the new t-charge product? I know they haven’t said /can’t say.

[marcusl2] 14/6/2022 15:44

Biotechs already approaching Novartis to partner on 'game changing' CAR-T platform


Novartis' T-Charge process sees most of the CAR T-cell expansion occurring within the patient’s body. Reducing the time the cells spend ex vivo helps preserve the naive and stem cell memory T cells, leading to—so the theory goes—better responses, improved long-term outcomes and a reduced risk of severe adverse events. Novartis' ultimate goal: to make the best T-cell product possible.

“We can retain all those younger T cell attributes and by doing that we shorten the timeframe and so we improve the accessibility,”

[marcusl2] 14/6/2022 15:19

£418 m cap. Cheap as chips! Surely news can`t be too far away.

Tisagenlecleucel Maintains Durable Response at 5 Years in Pediatric/Young Adult Patients With B-ALL
June 13, 2022

[harry s truman] 14/6/2022 15:15

Well, after today's kiss of death RNS a quick look at the stock exchange website says a total of 363 trades so far today.

Of those 287 are bot / algo machine trades

304 out of the 363 trades were for less than £1k total value with 48 of those for less than £100 in value.

Volume so far today is roughly 64k traded (low if it stays that way), which means that OXB is down nearly 4% on just over £250k changing hands.

Answers on a postcard.

[andymunchkin] 14/6/2022 13:49

Plz makeFew mreThreads mre theBeTTer allTheMoral supp0rt fer dominateX.whyUr shaTTereD?

[badger60] 14/6/2022 12:17

#218,219,221Very well expressed viewpoints.The intangibility of OXB is greatly exasperated by managerial incompetence,imo. Cash is king in times like these especially in heavy cashburn whipsaw biotechnology, like OXB that isn't producing revenue. Going forward it may be ok(at some point), but right now into the foreseeable future, imo, it's pants.

[shatter3] 14/6/2022 11:52

This company turned its fortunes around only a few years ago with a number of new contracts after an eternity in the doldrums. The icing on the cake was the vaccine revenue. But somehow the bod have completely lost their way ( with some jumping ship) after they saw money in the bank for the first time without having to borrow.
So what did they do? They spent virtually everything in the blink of an eye and took out a very expensive loan to boot.
Anyone know or guess when the next fundraising is due. Put me down for Sept.

[qnq] 14/6/2022 11:49

I think Friday or Monday morning great time to buy after the ftse rebalance. the orientation action you are seeing is due to shorts that play index arms! nothing to do with fundamentals.
with phenix coming, on day of approval or p3 data you will be chasing the stock, buying again at 1600. that's where I will off load for very very decent profit.

[gigabit] 14/6/2022 11:24

#218 - absolutely correct. The only thing that will move the share price upwards is evidence of reduced risk and that can only be from commercialisation or growing confidence in the management team's ability to deliver. Both have taken a massive knock this year and so far no evidence of a turnaround in deals. Having manufacturing capacity is great - but having those facilities remaining empty with no sign of customers is not a good look. Irrespective of what happens in the market more generally something needs to generate confidence in the management and in H1 this year the reverse has happened.

[steeplejack] 14/6/2022 11:07

The collapse in the price of OXB isn’t as ‘personal̵7; as the bulls might perceive.Of course,there has been an unwinding of the speculation that accompanied the covid epidemic but further to that,its a ‘sector’ thing.The biotech sector is about as far from the currently favoured ‘defensiveR17; consumer staple sector as you can get.Its at the opposite end of the spectrum from the energy stocks enjoying boom times.When you buy biotech,your perspective is necessarily long term.The market is currently transfixed by the short term,we’re in an equity bear market that doesn’t wish to entertain risk.Cash is king and that doesn’t allow for excessive speculation in riskier asset classes like biotech.Long term,history tells you that equity investment will outperform cash but you can’t completely ignore ‘timing’ as a consequence.

Having bought (rather unsuccessfully) a few steady eddies like Dalgety in recent months,i’m more than happy to sit out the summer with a very highly level of liquidity and frankly i don’t give a stuff that i’m losing in ‘real’ terms as self interested luminaries advised in numbers in this weekend’s business press.Equity markets have yet to capitulate which is more than likely as a growing wave of redemptions triggers forced selling.OXB could well fall to under 4 quid unfortunately.It will almost inevitably be oversold in the current market environment.

PS…parallels with the UK in the 1970s?Very much so but remember that back then,there was the silver lining of North Sea oil improving the balance of payments.Not so now.Sterling parity with the dollar seems a very real prospect and one should invest accordingly.

[badger60] 14/6/2022 10:50

That's a huge problem being invested in the bio tech sector........being able to identify when the company wheels are falling off...... so being quick to identify the signs are paramount for the Investor.
I suppose the 98% share price fall in Bluebird bio from 2018 is a lesson not to be ignored........ especially as this once was a multi BN mkt cap company. With the costly problematical Zynteglo and little cash, they've unfortunately just laid off 30% of their workforce today......more to come no doubt ......

1 - 10 = - 9

[badger60] 14/6/2022 10:11

qnqIf that's the way you see it, go ahead and fill yer boots. Don't forget it wasn't that long ago that many were falling over themselves to pay 1650p. With the recent new issue at 810p...qnq....today's price is a bargain......and you're the bio expert forecasting 3-5 BN quid mkt cap. Get in there!!!!!