Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 08/3/2024 16:03

I wonder if any of the long termers here have been buying the dips...no need to respond but I suspect we have had a serious helping hand from the research from Harry :)

[takeiteasy] 08/3/2024 15:27

approaching key 2.20 levels..fingers crossed etc :)

[harry s truman] 08/3/2024 15:16

And to that I'd just add the point that last year we didn't have any huge daily drops on bad news announcements, what we had was the death by a thousand cuts of down 1% one day, no change the next, down 1.9% the day after and such - which adds up.

But the compounding will also work the other way.

190 close on Tuesday
195.4 close on Wednesday
206 close yesterday and whatever today brings.

I don't think the bots do news, so it's just momentum trading - but if it's in the right direction then do we care?

[takeiteasy] 08/3/2024 12:36

agreed SJ, but I still think the bots will push this above 2.20 near term even though trading seems very quiet again...dyor etc

[steeplejack] 08/3/2024 12:32

The increasing trend towards passive UK indexed funds and away from actively managed UK equity funds has exacerbated the impact of being in or out of the FTSE indices,the 100 and 250 in particular.This is against a blackcloth of outflows from UK equity funds that has been ongoing for years.If -and i think it should-OXB can attract the attention of a 'recovery' orientated fund then OXB will enjoy a strong retracement.Technically,the shares have built strong support around the 180 area and there shouldn't be too much resistance between £2 to £3.I'm not questioning that the stock could potentially get back into the 250 in 2024 only that they'll need to be a pretty steady stream of news flow from OXB to achieve it.Bear in mind that funds can be 'predictive',buying/selling ahead of likely inclusion/exclusion in an index.

[harry s truman] 08/3/2024 11:20

Many thanks for the kind comment Tuco.

As a shareholder I will have confirmation bias and I realise it (I'm sure you do too) but I try to be as objective as it's possible to be from this position.

There's no getting away from the fact that a huge number of shares (maybe 10% in total) were sold over just a few months last year, seemingly in a great hurry and for no obvious reason connected to OXB.

My knowledge of how the market works is layman's at best, but it seems logical to me that the current OXB story has to be both good enough and well known in the market to bring in new / bring back old shareholders - just to get us back to where we were at this time last year. Very frustrating when you consider all of the good news since, but there you go.

My FTSE250 target is not just because I consider OXB to be a 250 company, it's also because of all the funds who won't look at small cap but will buy 250. All the coverage which doesn't happen for small cap, but does for 250 - and so on. Just as being booted out is a spiral dive, the other direction is a self-fulfilling prophecy and I realise that you appreciate this.

It's just the small matter of re-joining / promotion to the FTSE250 now...

So, £560m market cap by:-
End of May?
End of August?
End of November?

My optimist hat hopes that the FY presentation at the end of April is late (with a lot of notice) because of a nice reason (i.e. they expect something to happen which they either want to announce before or wrap up into the results).

I may also be kidding myself with that one and it's simply that the auditors have told them when the accounts will be signed off and that was the first available slot, but I live in hope.

If there is no surprise big news then the FY results presentation needs to be very special.

If not and nothing else comes (e.g. the Serum bioreactor agreement mystery) then my last hope will be that the interims shows pretty amazing figures for this half and that drives enough interest to get us back into the 250 at the end of November.

Meanwhile it's Spring (more or less) and life goes on.

[steeplejack] 08/3/2024 10:42

"Rivers know this: There is no hurry. We shall get there some day."-Winnie the Pooh

[marcusl2] 08/3/2024 09:45

Gareth, was that not Buzz Lightyear?


or
"There are far, far better things ahead than any we leave behind.”
C.S.Lewis

[gareth jones] 08/3/2024 07:12

To infinity and beyond (Back to the Future)

[dominiccummings] 07/3/2024 21:16

Thanks Mr President for that roam over past times and update on the probabilities, possibilities, and the motivation of the men to do it.

Like Mr President a number of us have had to bear the weight (also 'wait') of knowing what the company would be able to achieve but have to watch an uninterested and unforgiving market!

So now the company have given the market professionals the data, the 'tools to do the job'. Is it now to be a 'rolling stone' over the next months and years, or a 'stick in the mud'.

Interesting times.

[harry s truman] 07/3/2024 20:59

I appreciate that, but I'm not really sure how it all happened. I want to think that an earlier thread formed the habit because there were a lot of good sorts around (even doc - our arch nemesis - was positive back then) but as you will have worked out I don't do this with my other shares. Could simply be the time invested too (rather than the money). I suppose everybody needs a hobby.

Anybody still around from the early days (and there are a few) I think we all have a very realistic view about our shares bought back then. I never owned OXB when they were AIM (that is before me) but I'm pretty sure they were floated at 100p and ended up higher when they joined the main exchange. Since then it's been a bit of a rollercoaster, but remember the 50 to 1 consolidation?

I have great optimism for the future of OXB and by that I don't mean the revenue or earnings which they have forecast for 2026.

Some of this revolves around the people who have come to OXB. Frank is 61 or 62 and had a brilliant job as CEO of Rentschler Biopharma (large private CDMO). They liked him and he has stayed on as a director there, so what is the logic for a guy nearing retirement to leave an excellent position for the same role in a UK company which had been severely battered post-covid.

I think we can discount both weather and food as attractions for a Frenchman, so why did he choose to come / what was the attraction? I suspect not the money as 6 or 7 years as CEO of Rentschler will have him extremely comfortable already.

So why come? And then Mark (our new US site boss) previously Vice President, Site Head for CDMO Rentschler Biopharma. No prizes for guessing how Frank knew what he could do, but again - left a good job to come to us?

Seb was VP CDMO for Merck and Thierry a similar very good job with Merck.

These guys all have great CVs / track records and yet they came to a company where if they looked at the losses before they came, or the share price chart?

The only thing which makes sense to me is that Frank wants to go into his eventual retirement on the back of creating something rather special and OXB is his chosen vehicle.

Seb Joined before Frank, but Frank brought the other two in and these guys all know how to do this (make millions in successful CDMO).

The fact that Seb, Frank and Thierry are all native French speakers is invaluable for how ABL develops - and there is a huge amount of potential there. Mark in the US has a facility roughly the size of OxBox, so with similar potential.

Frank's job is to now make sure everything OXB owns pays for itself and I think he's already made a very good start.

You will have seen me before mention our three 1,000 litre bioreactors in Oxford (we have many more smaller), there are three 500 litre bioreactors in Boston, three 200 litre bioreactors in Lyon and one in Strasbourg.

Ignoring all the smaller equipment for process development and pilot scale work (which as we know is very busy) that's an awful lot of capacity for volume production which at the moment has demand nowhere near capacity. I'm certain that will be somewhere near the top (if not the top) of Frank's to do list.

Get the downstream side of OXB at anything near the current utilisation of our process development / upstream equipment and I think you would be surprised at what OXB can earn.

1,000 litre bioreactors bought for covid vaccine bulk production are probably never going to be used in CGT CDMO work, but they are ideal for mass production of another vaccine. In time we will discover the plan, but using those again could be such a big earner.

[takeiteasy] 07/3/2024 19:29

Harry, well done for all your postings and I hope you make back what you need from this.
If there was an award for most helpful ADVFN member of the month for March 2024 - I would recommend it is sent to you!

[harry s truman] 07/3/2024 19:07

Famous last words here, but in a sane world then OXB would be 2 steps forward and 1 step back now - all the way to fair value.

I'm always hopeful but back in September OXB told the market that they would breakeven this year. Nobody seemed too convinced and Numis even went into print with their doubts.

OXB have reiterated / confirmed many times since and usually added a little more to the story with each update. Tuesday's update was excellent, but whether that was the straw which finally broke the camel's back of doubt remains to be seen.

There are hopeful signs, but it might still need Stuart in the FY webcast to say, "look, I have xx% booked in now and it's definitely going to be this". Time will tell and all that.

Remember that on the 1st of August we were 450p and the single piece of bad news in H2 last year was Homology Medicines (lead AAV customer for our US facility) halting business. Every other piece of news was good or better and yet we still hit the 160s numerous times. We shouldn't take a beating like that on the loss of 1 customer.

You can look at the shorting chart and spot the dates when there were new names on our threads daily typing "game over", "going bust" and "tick tock".

We ended the year with £103.7 million in the bank and a very full order book. A lesson for us all there about internet bb posts.

Could still be a while, but hopefully a lot of reassured shareholders since Tuesday happy to wait it out.

[takeiteasy] 07/3/2024 16:45

indeed- next interesting chart point is the most recent peak at around 2.20 or so, if we move through that the FOMO momentum crowd may join us...nothing guaranteed so will watch now with interest :) dyor and no advice etc

[gareth jones] 07/3/2024 16:16

Over 200p!

[takeiteasy] 07/3/2024 16:02

price action post the update very quiet ...trading volumes not that high yet...perhaps it is taking time for the broker notes to circulate around :) dyor etc

[steeplejack] 07/3/2024 13:59

"In a nutshell IM had to do a sweetheart deal to woo OXB, whilst OXB had to pay the asking price (high) to get a foot in the AAV market."Very interesting,thanks.

[steeplejack] 07/3/2024 13:27

"....speak no more: Thou turn'st mine eyes into my very soul; And there I see such black and grained spots As will not leave their tinct."

[dominiccummings] 07/3/2024 12:59

Of course it is a pantomime. Professionals don't give a fig as long as a market or share is going up or down, they manage a reward either way.

[steeplejack] 07/3/2024 12:15

Interesting point.There’s a natural tendency on the part of investors to lend some sort of credibility and rationality to the rating being applied to a stock at any given time otherwise you might come to the unfortunate conclusion that the whole investment scene is a bloody pantomime,a lottery.To avoid such a nasty eventuality,analysts employ their time proven ratios,such as the one employed by Harry,price to sales ratio etc.OXB and Institut M. would of had Investment bankers corporate representatives doing comparatives with other HDMOs,crunching ratios and by all accounts,they came to the conclusion that a ‘fair’ issue price would be 407.4p ,a significant premium to then OXB price of around 260p from memory..Nonetheless,the stockmarket has decided to ignore the implied OXB valuation to be gleaned from the professionals,OXB and IM management and push the stock to near an eight year low.Strange days indeed.That’s why one searches for rational explanations such as redemptions,forced sellers etc but hey,maybe the markets are a pantomime,the obsession with crypto seems bizarre.

[cousinit] 07/3/2024 11:25

Just on the price of 407.4p. On the day the IM/ABL deal was originally announced, analysts were very complimentary on how low the cost of acquisition was for OXB.

Clearly they might not have crunched the numbers on all aspects in the overall context that quickly, but it does give some comfort that OXB didn't have to overpay.

Was the headline deal value more a factor of the OXB share price? The key deal terms may actually have been the stake size IM took in OXB and the price of 407.4p was just a reflection of where the shares had been trading in the months preceding the acquisition?

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