Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 08:17

Just a quick one (for me) and then I have some things to do.

Hopefully by now we all understand upstream vs downstream (early stage vs late stage) work and then there is commercial supply.

Upstream (process development and such) is the one where we have more work than we could do in Oxford. Nice place to be and it pays money, but some of that will fail whilst some will move on to become downstream work - which we are not at capacity with.

Late stage trial work (the last part of downstream) we had one partner last year, which the brains of this bb (not me) thought might be Rocket.

Today we have 3.

Note also the wording "new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma.".

Preparing for the commercial launch shouted "recently approved" to me (though it may simply mean expected to be approved imminently), and so you could probably take a good guess at who that is.

Why is it brilliant? Well, as per my earlier point, one ongoing commercial supply contract for Novartis and their CAR-T drug Kymriah has been both saviour and long term income stream for OXB. There are now 3 more lined up, with one seemingly a formality.

It will take a while for this to sink in and yes the market / economy is dire, but both brilliant and continuing confirmation of OXB's promise to keep us more informed.

[takeiteasy] 20/3/2024 08:09

For me, this is very helpful. The more the firm can do to unpack what the business model is and how they are going to generate consistent and growing revenue the better. Nothing here is changing from forecasts so nothing "new" in that sense but a lot more detail for lay person like me how they are really getting on with their work programmes.

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 07:55

Probably not for you then.

[redwing1] 20/3/2024 07:51

Are you kidding me? I was contemplating a modest purchase the other day, but this complete non-statement of a release puts me off. What does it actually say? Nothing. No numbers, no suggestion that the deals are incremental to what is in current forecasts and not even any dates. One of them just says 'recent' which suggests that it might well have been pre the update on 5th March. How can things change that much in two weeks and if they have, why not be specific and say that "since our last update we have now signed x,y and z". Dubious.

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 07:50

The cardiac part of that RNS almost certainly refers to Boston now Gareth (imho).

[gareth jones] 20/3/2024 07:43

Well done OXB on the update and developing client base. I'm sure others will have good guesses at who the new clients in US are. Good to see new work for OXBOX. One question which may be way off the mark. Do we not now have the staff or capacity at Bedford, Mass, to do this sort of work? What is OXB Solutions strategy now for OXB?

[chillpill] 20/3/2024 07:37

Don’t really follow these things anymore but didn’t Millennium disclose a new 0.5% short the other day?

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 07:36

It's much better than I dared hope for at this point in time. Much better. Potential here for multiple commercial product production much sooner than I anticipated it would happen. Remember that just one of those (kymriah for Novartis) saved this company as we know it.

[brucie5] 20/3/2024 07:34

Looking good. We done Oxb for getting onto the front foot. Albeit little to go on by way of names or figures. Yes, I look forward to Harry's unpacking of what this might mean. Why did they not wait until April's expected statement?

[takeiteasy] 20/3/2024 07:25

Can you summarise Harry how this supports your thesis here - are we equal or ahead of where you thought we were- thanks

[harry s truman] 20/3/2024 07:22

Well done OXB. Stunning RNS. Best for a long, long time.

[takeiteasy] 20/3/2024 07:10

No wonder the shorts closed in time - oh to have such timing skills :)

[chillpill] 20/3/2024 07:09

Obviously no financial data in the statement but it does look like new management are getting real traction.

Could easily be £5+ in 6 months.

[pharmaboy3] 20/3/2024 07:07

Over to the Holmes,Poirot, brigade to deduce names!

[mirabeau] 20/3/2024 07:04

Oxford Biomedica Provides Update on CDMO Services Including New Commercial Agreement

- New and expanded contracts highlight commercial momentum across all viral vector types



- OXB now working on multiple late-stage programmes with its portfolio of client programmes progressing to later stage work





Oxford, UK - 20, March, 2024: Oxford Biomedica plc (LSE:OXB) ("Oxford Biomedica", "OXB" or "the Company"), a quality and innovation-led cell and gene therapy CDMO, today provides an update on its CDMO services activity.

Year to date, Oxford Biomedica has experienced consistently strong demand for its CDMO services across all key viral vector types, with its portfolio of client programmes transitioning towards later stage work. As a result of commercial developments set out below, OXB is now working on three late-stage programmes.

Recently, the Company signed a contract with a new undisclosed US-based biotechnology company for the manufacture of lentiviral vectors as the client prepares for the commercial launch of its CAR-T programme targeting multiple myeloma. Manufacturing will take place in Oxbox, the Company's Oxford-based manufacturing facility.

Alongside this, Oxford Biomedica has signed two new programmes with existing clinical-stage clients for projects including Process Development and GMP manufacturing.

Furthermore, the Company has signed a new agreement with a US-based client specialising in cardiac gene therapy for the tech transfer, optimisation and manufacture of an adeno-associated virus-based process (AAV).



Under the terms of these agreements, Oxford Biomedica will receive payments related to the development and manufacturing of viral vectors for use in clinical trials in addition to certain development and regulatory milestone payments. These payments will support the Company in achieving its medium-term financial guidance announced on 5 March 2024.



Dr Sébastien Ribault, Chief Commercial Officer of Oxford Biomedica, commented: "The signing of a late-stage programme, alongside the continued expansion of existing agreements since the start of 2024, demonstrates clients' confidence in OXB's ability to deliver process development and GMP manufacturing services. Our Business Development team continues to experience strong demand for process characterisation, validation, and process performance qualification (PPQ) work, showcasing the high quality and reliability of our services. This demand is in line with our forecasts across all key vectors and geographies, validating our growth strategy. We remain confident about our future prospects as the leading global pure-play CDMO in cell and gene therapy and our ability to continue building our client portfolio."

[smoothtosmooth] 19/3/2024 20:46

The shorts were closed on 15th.

[harry s truman] 19/3/2024 18:26

Plutonian,

My understanding of the CVR (from their previous release) is simply that it allows them to wind up the old business whilst there is still something outstanding which is very hard to value.

So the existing Homology shareholders who will get Q32 shares plus a CVR, are then entitled to their share of whatever value the put option turns out to be.

[plutonian] 19/3/2024 16:57

HOMOLOGY MEDICINES DECLARES DISTRIBUTION TO COMMON STOCKHOLDERS
March 18, 2024
BEDFORD, Mass., March 18, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Homology Medicines, Inc. (Nasdaq: FIXX) today announced that it declared a distribution to its common stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 21, 2024 of the right to receive one contingent value right (CVR) for each outstanding share of Homology common stock held by such stockholder as of such record date. The payment date for such distribution is expected to be March 27, 2024 (three business days after the expected closing of the merger on March 22, 2024). Each CVR represents the non-transferable contractual right to receive certain contingent payments upon the occurrence of certain events within agreed time periods as provided in the merger agreement and agreement governing the CVRs.

[brucie5] 19/3/2024 16:50

Darkest before dawn and all that...
And I think we are all appreciative of what Harry does.
The W still in play.

[takeiteasy] 19/3/2024 16:36

near enough full capitulation here (perhaps they still have to clear the remaining 189k?) - Harry you must wonder why you bother and I do hold in case you are wondering. :)

[steeplejack] 19/3/2024 16:25

Never fear,you'll be the first to know!

[brucie5] 19/3/2024 16:02

steeplejack19 Mar '24 - 15:32 - 7326 of 7326
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There’s about a million shares from last Friday’s reported 2.1m sale at 189.20 still unaccounted for by my calculations...
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Let us know when you find them. Maybe stashed down the back of the presidential sofa? Which might explain a lot.
;)

[steeplejack] 19/3/2024 15:32

There's about a million shares from last Friday's reported 2.1m sale at 189.20 still unaccounted for by my calculations.It's possible that an MM has taken it on their book but i'd be surprised given the lack of daily liquidity in this share.You would of expected to have been able to marry up sales and buys by now.Still time,MMs have a few days latitude when reporting large trades outside NMS.

[brucie5] 19/3/2024 13:51

DominicCummings19 Mar '24 - 11:41 - 7322 of 7324
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Price diving again. Perhaps Millenium still have a large chunk to buy back and are knocking the price down to get to where they want?
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DC, is this really how it works??? Surely the way to knock a price down is to short; and since they're not longer shorting, it would seem nonsensical to sell in order to buy...

In the meantime I hold on with gritted teeth. Will it go down to previous low at 1.70; or lower still thereafter..? This is not unlike a bottoming pattern, given the depths and length of decline, but is sure tests the patience.

The pattern I'm looking for is a W; of which we already have, potentially, the two lows in place. Of course there might be another, but ultimately, for the pattern to complete we would need to see the decisive break up of the final V.