Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 06/3/2024 09:50

I think you’ll find that the corporate broker(the recent appointee)is RBC Capital who have produced the research note.They are among 9 brokers who cover OXB.RBC have had an ‘outperform217; rating for sometime and yesterday updated.

[philly cheesesteak] 06/3/2024 09:38

Have opened a position here this morning, it seems a no brainer based on fundamentals.

@Harry, it has to be said that your knowledge of this share is fantastic. This part of your last post stuck out;

"I hear that RBS have simultaneously issued their first note as house broker today to coincide with OXB's financial update and raised their short term share price target to 740p with a 3 year target of 1,800p"

Do you happen to know where anyone could get hold of this note / what their 3 year price target is predicated on?

[takeiteasy] 05/3/2024 23:10

Harry, that is super helpful. I hope you are right we will get more clarifications with results note.

[harry s truman] 05/3/2024 19:03

takeiteasy,

re your question in #7155, then first I want to stress with a wealth warning here that I'm not any kind of financial expert. If I was then I would have sold all my shares at more than £15 and bought them back again at less than £2. I didn't.

I really want to weasel out with an answer which says I think it's a sum of the parts and it's all important, but in reality it has to be the cash burn.

Just over a year ago Stuart said at the JPM conference that after they had reorganised the business then they would effectively have "an infinite cash runway" as they wouldn't be spending cash on operations - and - whilst they did have plans to spend cash on capex for expansion and such, that is discretionary - meaning of course that if the demand wasn't there to make it pay back then they wouldn't do it.

It's stating the obvious I know, but sat on a huge pile of cash and not needing to dip into it for day to day operations is a very good place to be in any economy, but in this one it is brilliant.

I hear that RBS have simultaneously issued their first note as house broker today to coincide with OXB's financial update and raised their short term share price target to 740p with a 3 year target of 1,800p. Nice as the 3 year target is there, a lot can happen between now and 2017, so that's just really a marker. As I've mentioned a lot, my own target is back into the FT250 this year and I believe that is very achievable.

I'm assuming that if OXB have now briefed RBS (and how else would they produce the note?) that the other 8 covering brokers will already now have the same story or will hear it soon. With that in mind then I would expect a lot of forecast / target revisions before the results else some of them are going to look very out of touch.

But (there's always a but) coming back to your original question about what I think is most important, and I think it's maybe something they haven't announced yet.

Phil mentions ‘game changer’ upsides in his post there, which none of the analysts are including anything for because they don't do speculation (unlike us).

Serum - the 1,000 litre bioreactor for 10 years - for what? Potentially worth millions.

BMS - it's nearly a year since OXB said in their webcast words to the effect that BMS had expanded their agreement with us on the back of satisfaction, but that OXB were expecting to hear something more from them. You could be forgiven for thinking "11 months = dead in the water" when actually that could simply be the speed at which a huge pharmaceutical company works. Might be another expansion of the agreement, could be anything (or nothing).

Rocket - really we only know that name because Plutonian spotted that their LentiVector looks very much like ours and noted that they don't have one of their own. If their drug is approved on June 30th and if it is our vector then that's millions for us as it moves to commercial supply.

So the 3 Phil mentions there, but I'd also prompt with the reminder that AZ had 11 CDMOs bashing their covid vaccine and they kept the contract open with just one (OXB). Why? Contingency after AZ said publicly that they wouldn't do the same thing again after their covid experiences or were they just very pleased with OXB and thinking "they would be able to help us with ___"?

Another blast from the past here, but what about the article linked here last year linking WuXi with OXB. Maybe that's dead but if not they are a huge company in an even huger market which we have no exposure to.

So the unknown unknowns could be anything, the known unknowns (above) might be something and might be nothing, though personally I think there's so much in the public domain about malaria at the moment that the Serum one is a bit like working out who's farted if there's only 2 of you in a lift. What else could it be? (I am open to other suggestions as to why they want a 1,000 litre bioreactor for 10 years).

But with all the unknowns there, and to finish with something which Dudley Moore's character might have said in Arthur "5 million here, 10 million there, 25 million somewhere else and pretty soon you're talking a lot of money".

[takeiteasy] 05/3/2024 17:55

Bots quite aggressive on the bid today for anyone trying to nip in and add a few...hard to get a look in...very very unusual for my time here :)

[takeiteasy] 05/3/2024 17:54

GJ, would be nice to get some outright "buys" rather than "holds"

[gareth jones] 05/3/2024 17:21

Couple of broker notes, analysts notes and director buys after today's update would help move us along.

[philh75] 05/3/2024 14:55

35pct growth yoy predicted
Break even 2024 (ish)
Doesn’t include any potential ‘game changer’ upsides for new commercial supply contracts: Serum, BMS or Rocket.

[takeiteasy] 05/3/2024 13:57

Harry, clearly some "new" news here - of all the bits and pieces you have picked up if you had to only pick one, what do you see as most important (if you can) - it helps those of us without the long history you have

[lawson27] 05/3/2024 12:05

More than happy with the update, should see a good recovery in the share price imo, GLA

[steeplejack] 05/3/2024 11:32

Is that someone on the grassy knoll?Perhaps the stock can climb back to the 220ish level that the stock price started the year given the clarity this RNS provides.Yet,as far as market sentiment is concerned its guaranteed profit makers that rule the roost currently and little is taken on trust.

[rathean] 05/3/2024 11:31

Good to see algo-driven trades on the buy side after this mornings "steady as she goes" update.?

[dominiccummings] 05/3/2024 11:16

More vax news?

[stocktastic] 05/3/2024 10:45

"Last point, and this is pure speculation from me, the results are pretty late for OXB and they have given a long notice of them being late, when they plainly already know what the 2023 results are (they have told us some of it today).

Why have they given themselves so much time? I would suggest (optimist health warning here) that a bit like the interims which Frank combined with Project Aquarius, there is something else likely to happen which is transformational to OXB and they want to announce it on their biggest day of the year."


It couldn't just be the added complexity of building in acquisitions,.of course

[harry s truman] 05/3/2024 10:41

I'm pleased with that Marcus as of late I'd come around to the idea that they were just going to wait for the FY results and wrap it all up into that.

Obviously not the case, and although it's still a bit unclear what this "more regular reporting" actually means, we have now had a business update on the 7th of Dec, a presentation by Stuart in January, a reassurance that all was still on track with the ABL completion RNS and now another business update on the 5th of March.

I don't think any of us can complain now about being kept in the dark by lack of news, though I'm sure someone will.

£129.4 million in cash at the end of June and £103.7 million at the end of December tells me that they spent "at least" £25.7m in the second half, which is an Elvis level of spending, but we all knew 2023 was a post-covid economy disaster so no surprises there.

On the 7th December they told us that Seb's sales team had sold £124m in signed work which was a fantastic achievement on its own, but we now know that they closed the year at £131m, meaning that they managed to close another £7m in a little over a week as the vast majority of the business world winds down mid-December for the holidays. That's particularly impressive.

Perhaps more impressive is that even though Stuart has told us we are roughly breakeven now and that cash burn on operations is behind us, they are still going to be spending money - i.e. converting Boston to a regional LentiVector hub won't be cheap, but the fact that they can stand that spend and still forecast broadly breakeven at this point is brilliant.

What does the £103.7m cash at 31st of December mean to us now that OXB are broadly breakeven? That's correct, it means that the $50m Oaktree loan and the expected option on the last 20% of OXB Solutions are formalities to be addressed as they occur and not worries for those of us who like to worry.

Last point, and this is pure speculation from me, the results are pretty late for OXB and they have given a long notice of them being late, when they plainly already know what the 2023 results are (they have told us some of it today).

Why have they given themselves so much time? I would suggest (optimist health warning here) that a bit like the interims which Frank combined with Project Aquarius, there is something else likely to happen which is transformational to OXB and they want to announce it on their biggest day of the year.

You have all read my guesses over quite a period and some have been kind enough to bite my heels about them when nothing happened within the attention span of a goldfish, but as I have said since OXB told us that Serum had requested right of first refusal on a 1,000 litre bioreactor for ten years subject to minimum work guarantees at the same time as they did a matching deal with the big fill/finish plant in Wales, then if that's not for the recently fully approved R21 malaria vaccine for which Serum are prime contractor, what is if for? What else is there which needs that kind of volume supply and how many links have I posted here showing that the WHO/UNICEF/GAVI rollout has started now and that they want as much as possible as soon as possible?

[marcusl2] 05/3/2024 09:22

(Just a pity we didn`t know more details about these programmes which is always interesting)

Continued growth in orderbook for CDMO services

Throughout 2023, OXB continued to grow and diversify its portfolio of clients and programmes with multiple expanded and new agreements signed for the development and manufacture of lentivirus, AAV and adenoviral vectors as well as other vector types.



The contracted value of client orders signed during the year ended 31 December 2023 was £131 million, an increase of more than 50% compared to £85 million in the year ending 31 December 2022 (excluding COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing).

[icejelly] 05/3/2024 08:56

Only one or two years to wait.

[steeplejack] 05/3/2024 08:27

X100 FTSE Spirent receives a bid from nasdaq Viavi.I wonder how long OXB will remain independent.

[seanje] 05/3/2024 07:59

Thanks Santar

[steeplejack] 05/3/2024 07:54

There's clarification about the funding provided under the VWAP arrangement.No mention of an equity holding target of 10% now only the €20m planned IM funding by the end of the third qtr resulting in an issue of OXB shares.Unless the stock rises substantially,Institut Merieux 's holding could well rise to mid teens.

[stocktastic] 05/3/2024 07:41

....and there you go.
No profit until 2025 or 2026

[seanje] 05/3/2024 07:27

Why are you talking about an update - I cant see one

[gutterhead] 05/3/2024 07:19

So much to like about that update.
Abl integration settled, cash in the bank, break even reiterated, on track timing wise for profitable ebitda, predicted margin reiterated.
Well done Oxb

[gareth jones] 05/3/2024 07:07

Good time for a a brokers update?