Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 01/3/2024 17:23

My scenario is not speculation it is a statement of fact as a worst case scenario if the share price does not move up and they still need the same value of shares.

They have considered the scenario in their planning if the share price is too high ("top up in the market") and not if it remains super low.

No one needs to defend it, they simply missed this important point in their messaging that I think is disappointing put politely.

No need to respond further please.

[harry s truman] 01/3/2024 17:12

OK, one last time.

IM are going to provide 20m Euros in further funding in exchange for another 20m Euros worth of shares, sometime between now and the end of Q3 at the prevailing 30 day VWAP.

End of Q3 is the latest it can be and it will be earlier if OXB ask for it to be earlier. It's unlikely to be earlier unless OXB need the money (and they shouldn't).

If it's later and IM get fewer (more expensive) shares then they will top up in the market.

When the transaction completed they said "with the intention of owning approximately 10.0 percent of the Company's ordinary shares by the end of Q3 2024.".

Anything else is speculation. The possibility of 16% has never been suggested.

To my mind a much more interesting form of speculation is how national and transnational organisations are now working to ensure there will be sufficient capacity for the newly approved vaccine for the biggest killer on the planet by some margin.

This genuinely is a disease of mass destruction, not a western world type deadly disease where a paper mask works like Captain America's shield.

There used to be a claim that malaria had killed half the people who ever lived. That's of course not true today as we live in a time of modern medicine and population explosion, but historically it's probably true that malaria was the biggest killer of all time and still takes the best part of a million humans (mostly young) every year.

The first good vaccine (efficacy) which is easy to produce (relative term) is now approved (both steps recently completed).

Professor Hill (Oxford) said he wanted to get the old covid team back together (of course us and Serum).

Serum have taken an option on one of our 1,000 litre covid bioreactors for 10 years. That is really of no use for vector work (too much / too expensive) so is likely to be for a vaccine (Serum are primarily a vaccine company).

So, prime contractor for newly approved vaccine for biggest killer on the planet and who is constrained by WHO rules on security of supply to not have all their production eggs in one basket, takes an option on a 1,000 litre bioreactor in the UK for 10 years.

If it's not for malaria (biggest demand / biggest killer / newly approved vaccine) then what is it for?

I'm more than happy to play blind man's bluff in a guessing game on that one, but with regard to the IM deal for ABL Europe then I feel OXB have been very clear on a number of occasions now.

[takeiteasy] 01/3/2024 16:32

I think the message is very straightforward to follow - IM can get an overall 16% holding most of which is at a very low price unless the firm pulls its finger out and delivers some solid progres - if the price is still 1.70 in Q3 they will guarantee to get the shares cheaply.

[harry s truman] 01/3/2024 16:26

The deal closed on the 29th of January and this is nowhere near as complicated as an alien landing today might assume from reading the plotline on this thread.

[cousinit] 01/3/2024 10:30

I'm hoping that there's a focus on providing updates at key points ahead of the deal closing. I believe that OXB has the ability to elect for earlier completion or the 'long-stop' date and this isn't influenced by IM.

Low volumes at these prices probably won't factor too much into the overall VWAP calculation (for issuing shares to IM) if updates during the next 6 months are sufficiently positive.

Institutional holders will no doubt be concerned about possible dilution and acquisitions do seem to be seen more sceptically these days, especially if it's paper consideration and the paper is cheaply rated.

[dominiccummings] 01/3/2024 09:58

Remember who the Chairman is, and what he believes (grow by acquisition). I don't think he has the slightest interest in doing the best for shareholders. Only doing best for large shareholders, who are likely to support acquisitions.

[steeplejack] 01/3/2024 09:41

If Institut Merieux were 'hostile'(which they're not)i guess they would swoop in and gobble up as much stock as possible.I can't see that OXB would be that keen to issue new shares to IM at current prices but who knows what the back story is.I don't really have a handle on what's going on here and the share price is suggesting i'm not alone.

[takeiteasy] 01/3/2024 09:20

steeplejack, so very unlikely that IM are buying any more stock at these prices and this supports why we are drifting due to lack of buyers unwilling to buy the dip in advance of revised OXB forecasts...we are stuck in the chicken and egg scenarion :)

[steeplejack] 01/3/2024 09:12

So i concur with your numbers takeiteasy.Its extraordinary that Institut M. implicitly attached a value of over £4 per share by taking stock issued at 407.4p but has subsequently been able to acquire stock at significantly lower prices.

[gareth jones] 01/3/2024 09:04

First day of meteorological Spring,St David’s Day. Hopefully OXB (and their corporate brokers) note that it’s a time when new life begins to burst through, the dark days of Winter are behind us and a we can feel the Sun on our face. If nothing else happens at least the golf course is getting drier! Good luck all LTH’s.

[steeplejack] 01/3/2024 08:45

• OXB to issue €20m of new shares at prevailing 30 day VWAP

• IM to acquire €10m of OXB shares in market, targeting ~10% ownership overall

If IM follows the strategy outlined on Page 22 then it appears that Institut Merieux would end up with around 16-17% of OXB.It has around 6.5% post the issue of stock at 407.4p and purchases in the open market made with the €10m referenced.Its not clear whether IM has any further money earmarked for purchases in the open market.In any event,a €20m issue of new shares on VWAP basis (at around 170p)would give IM a further 10% equity interest more than fulfilling its declared intent of having a ten per cent holding.

[takeiteasy] 01/3/2024 05:48

4/12/23:
Institut Mérieux has acquired a 3.3 per cent stake in Oxford Biomedica, through purchases in the open market, which it intends to increase to approximately 10.0 per cent in aggregate by the end of Q3 2024.
Commitment from Institut Mérieux to provide the Company with EUR20 million of additional funding, to cover capital expenditure and potential operational losses in relation to the acquisition of ABL Europe, by means of an equity subscription in the Company ("Deferred Subscription Shares"), with timing at Oxford Biomedica's discretion prior to 27 September 2024.

29/1/12: 3.2 per cent of the Company's share capital issued to Institut Mérieux at a share price of 407.4p

1/2/24: TR1 IM holds over 6%

So at FX rate =1.17 IM will invest a further £17m of OXB shares at the current share price will add 17m/ 164m (market cap) or 10%.

So if IM does no further normal market purchases but simply goes ahead with this subscription at the current market price of around 170p then they will end up with over 16% of the firm. Is this logic correct please.

This is nothing like in line with the comment of ending up around 10% - the only thing I guess the firm will hope is that the share price improves at some point and delay issuing these extra shares for a few months - but we are already March and the share price has not moved - time will not wait forever here :)

[harry s truman] 29/2/2024 18:44

"Professor Hill emphasized the ongoing efforts to ramp up production and navigate regulatory approvals across Africa, aiming to introduce the vaccine where it's needed most.".

[steeplejack] 29/2/2024 14:26

The company stated it'd buy 10m euros worth of OXB in the market.It's purchased 3.3% in the market which probably pretty much exhausts that amount of money.However,there are still new shares to be issued on VWAP basis so a low price remains theoretically in IMs interest.Thereagain,I'm sure the motivation for IM and OXB will be to forge a meaningful relationship rather than nickel and dime it.

[takeiteasy] 29/2/2024 14:14

I said something very similar to this a while back and it does seem one way of explaining current share price movementsIf i follow the logic that IM would only buy after all their due diligence i should then be open to adding too - before the resultsJust cant yet convince myself yet though!Dyor etf

[strapittoyourankle] 29/2/2024 13:34

IMs stake was 6.15% on the 29th January. With 3.2% at 407.4p, maybe they are averaging down!

[steeplejack] 29/2/2024 12:25

Well,call me old thicky but i’ve found IMs intention of building a stake in OXB rather obtuse.Yes,we know that IM took a 3.2% stake by way of shares issued at 407.4p but on completion of the ABL deal we had the confirmation of further purchases “in the open market” amounting to 3.3% of the then issued equity.This says “in the open market” and as such doesn’t appear to reference the “NEW”shares (phase 2)that might be ISSUED under the 30 day volume weighted average price terms contained on page 22 referred to by Harry.Yet,the inference would be that a low OXB price is (until they reach their 10% target)in IMs interests.




…”..and prior to today’s completion of the acquisition of ABL Europe had already built a stake of 3.3 per cent of the Company’s then issued share capital through purchases in the open market, with the intention of owning approximately 10.0 percent of the Company’s ordinary shares by the end of Q3 2024.” 29 Jan

[dominiccummings] 29/2/2024 12:12

I have heard that there is an American fund selling out. Must be near the end by now?
(Don't know who)

[dominiccummings] 29/2/2024 12:10

Not just you two. There are many others on this BB that are also grumpy old gits.

BTW JD bought Cobra so that they would not have to suffer the 12 months they had to wait for a manufacturing slot for Trovax

[steeplejack] 29/2/2024 11:47

Eureka Harry!!!We do share common ground....we're both a couple of grumpy old gits!

[harry s truman] 29/2/2024 11:28

I once listened to a guy on the TV who had the thankless job of trying to defend the pension industry in the light of their latest blunder and explain the incoming self-regulation to prevent a reoccurrence.

The abridged version of what he said was that yes, some people genuinely don't understand what is put in front of them and they need most protection, but a far bigger proportion simply can't be bothered reading something which has been written for them as it takes too much effort (and then when it goes wrong it's someone else's fault).

If I remember correctly his analogy was that the pension industry knew that most people happily spent significantly more time researching their annual holiday (brochures of course at the time) than they would ever consider before selecting and signing up to a lifetime private pension.

To my recollection OXB have gone to the trouble to outline the relatively simple headline terms of the ABL deal at least 3 times now, and it's not what was explained last night.

I wonder how many of the 5 votes were from people who have complained here that OXB are late with another update which they also won't read?

There is of course nothing new under the sun (as it says in the good book), but it brought back memories of when JD bought the old Cobra Biologics facility (now Harrow House) and the comments here back then from people who had "run a business" (or other similar claim to fame) with helpful guidance on what they could manufacture with it. A production facility kitted out (at the time) with adhesion cell line equipment can only really do one thing. That was obvious to anybody who read the OXB releases back then too.

Never mind eh...

[harry s truman] 28/2/2024 21:39

Page 22 refers

[doyledreamer] 28/2/2024 21:02

Not sure what s going on here but aren't IM aiming to buy 10% in the market and it is in their interests to buy at a low price. How the price can be controlled like this I have no idea but they started buying a while ago with inside information (I.e. knowledge of OXB which they ad gleaned from the ABI deal). Once they have their 10% OXB might update the market but until then it is not in the interests of IM to have OXB declare any positive news. Am I being too cynical?

[harry s truman] 27/2/2024 15:56

I suspect that I typed much worse than that at the time.

Anyway, let's see what OXB say - which in reality is all that matters now, and they have promised to update more frequently.

Meanwhile, and continuing from Phil's link the other day