Orchid Developments Share Discussion Threads

[markt] 02/12/2012 17:14

markt 16 Feb'12 - 16:47 - 3231 of 8905 0 0 edit

"Thaarg
I posted ages ago with my own view on valuation for the Mall...
I still stick with those numbers...

the valuation in the accounts based on DCF is useless regards sale price imo

all the purchases that I have seen from property companies and pension funds, talk about "yield", a different calc. than DCF as used by most posters on here and in the accounts.

(big problem is that the market does not know the current numbers for the Mall....note, first year discount expired May 2011..nor how much H & M is paying, a big discount I would think since took 7%...and most posters on here seem to ignore the large running costs...accounts say most of 2M cost in accounts is for the Mall).

yield, 5%, 7.5%, 10%....no one knows.....and anyway, there is no bidder for the Mall at the moment on its own."


----

My post about the GM was imo correct in Feb 2012...and is just as correct now in Dec 2012.

The selling price for the GM, if sold, will be based on yield...and the DCF calculation that OCH uses, that produces 137ME is imo, a load of xxxxxxxs !

but it gave the dirs. a nice bonus !!! (AIM shareholders are so easy to hoodwink imo !)

(Dec 2012. a 7-8% yield PBT on the GM gives a selling price in the region of 70ME +/- X

(if a buyer thinks that the 20% space empty can be filled soon then they will pay a big more, but over the last 12 months the % occupancy is only increasing slowly.....and there is a churn rate with renters....if Bulg. economy slows then occupancy will fall, a buyer would also include that in pricing up the GM
...any buyer would also consider maintenance etc etc...and what % yield they can get from other assets they could invest in...and risks .and bank loan interest rates..etc...etc....and etc !....and any buyer would pay the least that they possible could !)

[markt] 02/12/2012 17:04

Thaaarg 17 Feb'12 - 07:41 - 3257 of 8905 0 0

Hardly a robust rejection of the 'offer' by the BoD, almost looks as if they want to put as negative a slant on the RNS as possible.

This smells a bit to me.

[markt] 02/12/2012 17:04

"Cuttingman2 17 Feb'12 - 07:18 - 3253 of 8905 0 0

Didnt waste any time getting that out of the way..wonder if this was known before egm lol share price will suffer today but imo game on"

So...in hindsight...one could argue that the offer shenanigans was just to get shareholders to vote yes to the resolution(s) at the Feb EGM .

Looks like it. And one could argue that it was all organised. And that people made money buying in advance and then selling when it went to 15p....and also shorting at 15p to then close out at 4p. Wow ! if anyone did it then they would have made big bucks, very very quickly.

[markt] 02/12/2012 17:00

roughandtumbleone 16 Feb'12 - 23:13 - 3245 of 8905

cut

PS Just less than 94M shares in circulation and the board knocking on the door of 30% - That's incredibly close to opting to "go it alone" and buy the rest of the stock.

---

he he !

an in Dec. 2012....the dirs. will get a large part of OCH in return for their salaries if shareholders vote yes to the EGM resolutions.

All planned by the exec. directors ?

In my view, yes, without doubt.

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:58

"roughandtumbleone 16 Feb'12 - 23:13 - 3245 of 8905

cut

You also get the Porsche Centre at Sofia (Guy M owns the Porsche Franchise)."

AND
imo the dirs. own a co. which operates the coffee/drink services in the GM
and OCH has kindly lent them 400KE at 0% interest.

with X million visitors that could well be the best part of the GM !!
(with the cold in Varna in the winter...many people will go to the Mall imo to meet friends...and have a coffee...and with low Bulgarian incomes...they may not buy anything from any shops...but a coffee they can probably can afford, cheap afternoon out)

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:54

27macca 17 Feb'12 - 08:00 - 3278 of 8905 0 0

So what happened to the following:

The Company which is incorporated in the Cayman Islands is not subject to the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers ("Code"). Consequently, there will be no automatic 28 day "put up or shut up" as would be the case were the Company subject to the Code.

This has not surprised me one bit, and continues to stink to high heaven.

The share price will drop like a stone today, but if this has not been strategically planned by management from the minute the "Approach" was announced here then I will eat my hat.

cut

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:48

Lennonsalive 17 Feb'12 - 08:08 - 3285 of 8905 0 0

You all need to write to the FSA and report the management.

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:46

jack1236 17 Feb'12 - 08:23 - 3314 of 8905 0 0

Makes you wonder if there was ever an 'offer' on the table, or was the 'price' of the share raised to under pin the 99% of acceptances at the EGM to alot new shares which gives them 29% of the company, now that's gone through, the 'Offer' magically disappears.

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:43

Horndean Eagle 17 Feb'12 - 09:22 - 3359 of 8905 0 0

Huge pump and dump operation by management. Should be shot for what they have orchestrated. Continues to give AIM a terrible reputation.

--

27macca 17 Feb'12 - 08:16 - 3300 of 8905 0 0

Rough, I am not surprised, but annoyed like many I am sure at how blatant this manipulation is.

It is like they are trying to release as much bad news as quickly as they possibly can.....the question is WHY??

What happened to the "no put up or shut up" 28 day rule???

This reeks.

---
Moochy 17 Feb'12 - 08:16 - 3302 of 8905 0 0

I guess I was right about the "bad feeling" I had about OCH. Glad to have sold out at 11p.

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:42

mack7heknife 17 Feb'12 - 09:01 - 3350 of 8905 0 0

moochy I ignored comments like you and your chums have made for the last 4 weeks, the result was I did indeed trouser a 3 bagger, I have again ignored that advice by re-investing the proceeds plus the original stake for roughly 3.5 times the original holding with an average again of 5p,

---

One of the few that got their timing right with the jump to 15p.
(Evil Knievel was another....imo he pumped OCH to his followers via e-mail distrib. list....and he got out around 15p imo)

I got it wrong...and didnt sell !...at least I sold the ones I had bought on the way up as the price fell back to those prices...

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:39

"27macca 17 Feb'12 - 08:58 - 3349 of 8905 0 0

Why though would OCH management want this as low as possible quickly as poss,"

imo...we now know the answer to that one !

to then convert their salary to the exec. dirs. controlling the co. and owning most of it....

if they had converted their salaries to shares in OCH at 4p/share or 6p then they would get a much smaller % of OCH....and hence it would take them longer via their salaries to get big % of OCH...but hey, they get 1kE each per working day, tax free imo, so they are in no rush imo !

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:31

Wiganer 17 Feb'12 - 09:27 - 3361 of 8905 0 0

Even by AIM standards this one is a shocker. FSA needs to get a grip.

---
roughandtumbleone 17 Feb'12 - 09:51 - 3370 of 8905 0 0

So the company is now "worth" under £3.8M!

I've just tried to get hold of Shore Capital, as per my conversation with them earlier in the week.

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:22

interesting post...I move it later

(can people see the similarities with what is happending at OCH ?)

"the_beagle 20 Feb'12 - 08:35 - 3503 of 8905 0 0

R&T......I don't expect that at all. I was just pointing out that a meega rich guy managed to get control of Cosalt at 0.2p through lending the company working capital and then threatening to call it in."

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:14

I propose/plan to move many of my OCH posts/rants ! to this thread....

to unclog the other OCH threads...since I have been posting so much

then

if anyone wants to read my posts/opinions....they can visit this thread...

----

This thread is, at present a bit of a compilation

first X posts are selected posts copied from main OCH thread from Feb. 2012 time....to show that many people thought that the share price movements were intentionally manipulated....and manipulated to help get votes to vote yes to the EGM resolutions
(I voted NO, and I was perhaps one of the few people that voted NO. imo no bonus was actually due, imo no profit of 30ME was actually made)

---

And then there are some posts of mine I have cut and pasted from the main OCH thread...over to this thread...to unclog the other thread...

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:13

Jack
BTW
the Cayman Is laws etc are perhaps almost irrelevant....since I think that no PI from the UK would be willing to spend the money to take any case to the Cayman Is.

although if any part of Cayman Is. law was being broken....then it may give AIM or the SFO to halt any UK process such as an EGM
-----

Personally I think that OCH will soon de-list from AIM (in fact AIM may not even allow it to return from suspension since there are numerous material doubts that it is a going concern (ref. the offer doc. !)...or go into administration (or at least some divisions)

in which case

OCH will have no link with the UK...and PIs and IIs would have to go to Cayman Is. to take any legal action against OCH or to Bulgaria against any divisions...
virtually g'teed waste of time imo....and Bellport exists in a tax haven....any action against Bellport would be virtually impossible imo...since they could move from tax haven to tax haven.....or sell Bellport to be owned by another tax haven co....and the owners of that co. would be secret...

[bricktycoon] 02/12/2012 16:12

Mark this is coming back at 2.25 pence and will soar on a bid buy buy buy get in 9 th of December the cut of point for the open offer the grand mall is the key to the 10 p offer gla

[markt] 02/12/2012 16:06

thanks Jack

a special resolution requires over 2/3rds....ie. > 66% unless the co. articles give a "higher" %

hence
imo , resolution 2 stands almost no chance of being approved (unless there is some illegal insider deal between the dirs. and IIs)

and the 2 resolutions are linked, if resol. 2 fails then the dirs. have imo committed extorsion and said that resol. 1 would then be cancelled (would make me happy anyway !)

----

imo....any activist PIs needs to write messages etc to the regulators to ensure that the dirs. are NOT allowed to vote for resoluln. 2 with their 30% since parts of Resoln. 2 are to give benefits to them....and under UK law and AIM rules, I believe that you are not allowed to vote for a resolution that gives special benefit to you.