Orchid Developments Share Discussion Threads

[markt] 09/12/2012 15:09

b3thany
BTW
imo Bellport 'could' have created Bellport2, lent their OCH shares to Bellport2, who could have sold those shares short from 139p/share....down to close out at say 3p....to make 136p/share

to then return the lent shares

interesting possibility imo

[markt] 09/12/2012 14:54

lets just duplicate some important numbers from last post

if the EGM vote is yes, (I think it will be no, based on current info)
then the claimed NAV/share reduces from 60p/share to 22p/share (250M shares, was 94M)

pro rata 2p share price then moves down to 0.7p if related just to the claimed NAV
----

The per share numbers will get decimated of the EGM votes yes.
While the assets held by dirs. will rocket.

[markt] 09/12/2012 14:47

and BTW
market price was around 2p before de-listing

was a reasonable high risk punt imo....noting that claimed NAV was 60p....and some ring fenced stuff....so there was a X% chance of getting 2p back in a wind up, and Z% chance of 4p, and Y % of 8p

but now, if the vote is yes, (I think it will be no, based on current info)
then the NAV/share reduces to 22p (250M shares, was 94M)

pro rata 2p then moves down to 0.7p if related just to the claimed NAV

ie. for me, I wouldnt pay 2p/share if the vote is approved and there are 250M shares. (the money will imo just be enough to pay the dirs....virtually nothing left....and defn. zero wrt the payments that OCH needs to pay)
---

In any case, wrt options A-D etc
...there will imo be a risk of a suspension notice or asset siezure notice etc at any time...and that wont be good imo for the share price ..or real PI value, since could lose it at any moment imo.


---
...if someone sends an allegation to the SFO ref. insider trading or insider information ref. recent II + co. meeting....I wouldnt be surprised !
and imo R & T should be included....since seems to know about things/meetings that are not disclosed to the market.

[knigel] 08/12/2012 20:43

B is my choice but not at 8am on the 17th

[markt] 08/12/2012 20:43

Knigel
BTW
you know that the interest cost on the GM goes up 1/2% every quarter from Sept 2013 if dont repay 45ME or refinance it (and at present the chance of that happening looks infinitely small since value of say 80ME (on 7-8% yield) is LESS than the debt......so no new lender would be interested imo.

interest rate would slowly rise from say 5% to 7%. ....making the GM even more worthless to OCH shareholders.

(imo OCH should give it to the banks and let them manage it, worthless imo to OCH)
----

Orchid Gdns
new RNS stated that apartments are luxury.
Is that true.
with costs per m2 for construction......imo they must be very bare and un-luxury
(approx. 20ME cost after the land imo, it is 40000m2
gives 500E/m2

and out of that cost are large payments for
- double glazing
- dg sliding doors to apartments
- balconies
- building lifts
- external facings

at 500E/m2 ...imo be lucky to have money left for bare concrete floors in the luxury apartments ! never mind any fixtures or fittings...
----

If OCH were to pull a rabbit out of the hat....they would imo need to sell big parts of Orchid Gdns and make a large profit....but imo the % chance is small
noting that it is now winter (no tourists or international buyers, few flights to/from the airport etc)
and apartment prices have crashed in Spain (and I assume Greece and Portugal and Ireland) so OCH has to compete for international buyers with the attractions of those places....and banks are not keen to lend I think since many need ECB money to stay alive...
and if OCH was going to get local buyers...then they would surely already have bought by now, bld was 99% finished 12-18 months ago I think
---

A real chance imo that even if money raised that AIM will not re-admit since real doubt that it is a going concern.
---
The longer 'it' goes on, imo just more and more % of the co. will move to the hands of the 2 dirs.....inferring less for the shareholders. So, personally I would like some resolution ASAP.

[markt] 08/12/2012 20:27

Hi
I hope it doesnt relist !....and then we get some prof. administrator in...and a distribution of the assets held in the held and in the land company (by the dirs. and staff wages etc are in fact debts that could be placed wholly or partly on those assets.....
and land assets best held mothballed waiting for next building cycle


(note that my averaged price is around 3-3.5p or less......66% of mine were bt at 2p or below....so even if I could sell at say 2p I would get most of my money back
someone that paid an average of 10p or 40p !, may have different preferences to me)

option A
sell all and run !

option B
sell half and get something back and let rest run in case they manage to sidestep the banks repeatedly during 2013 !

option C
hold all and hope !

option D
option B or C combined with taking advantage of any share price spike on news release
and then some idiot loses some money (but its not investing)
(like previous one to 15p...I got that wrong and held !)
----

I may be tempted to keep some shares....hoping for administration...and a share out of the assets from ring fenced assets.
15-17ME if we believe the accounts, just in the hotel and land companies.
0.2% of that for me would be quite nice ! I think I calc'd before at 36kE.

but longer it goes on, then assets will move to the exec. dirs. imo. (unless the vote is NO, in which case some action would be quite quick...)

[knigel] 08/12/2012 19:21

Will you be selling on relisting? (presuming it relists?)

[markt] 08/12/2012 19:18

Cash raised = 50M....from shareholders, tiny % of it from directors.
In most share offers they did not subscribe for new shares. (except some at 139p...and I think that was to encourage other people to subscribe)


Payments to directors (if include 2013) and 12 months notice...and almost 2ME for 2009 bonus
approx. 5-6M

(1000 Euros/working day for each of the 2 exec. dirs. since approx. 2005, probably tax free since paid to Bellport in Cayman Islands)

Payments to OCH workers. approx. 5-6M as a quick guess



Payments to shareholders = .....0 !

Looks like directors 1 : shareholders 0 so far !

[markt] 07/12/2012 15:58

1) Marsans
Angel de Cabo
Diaz Ferran

a) Diaz Ferran

[markt] 07/12/2012 15:49

BTW
If the dirs. had wanted to make a decent or normal cash raising share issue...

noting that the dirs. are reqd. by law to direct the co. for "the general benefit of ALL shareholders" and not run the co. for their own benefit

then

they would have done a pro rata share offer ...and offered to take up any shares that were not taken up, so that min. amount would be raised

and once the cash was received from the shares...then they would have taken their pay...

---

over future weeks and months I am 100% sure that more people will agree with more of the content of my posts...

[markt] 07/12/2012 13:10

BTW R & T
imo it is illegal for the dirs. to use their 30% of votes to vote in resolution 2....since it has direct impact on them.....normally people are not allowed to vote on such things...imo...

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In any case.....if any rules or regs. have been broken ....the SFO, FSA can always act after the EGM.....often takes them time....

(the recommendation from the chairman for example is illegal imo
and the offer doc. is a misrepresentation imo and hence also illegal
allegations have been submitted)

[markt] 07/12/2012 13:07

timtim
" surely the largest II have the biggest STICK to yield here? Do they want to be involved/associated invested in a failure surely not."

agree, imho a lot is in the hands of the IIs

(OCH is already a failure.....failed to make numerous payments, has court orders against it for seizing apartments to pay debts to constructor.....
suspended at around 2M pnds after raising 50M cash !
and can not even pay the dirs. salaries, which is what this share offer is for imo (but taking shares instead, in order to get control of OCH))



I am hoping that the IIs are furious and will remove the bod

....but some IIs can behave strangely, such as when a share becomes 0.00001% of the fund it is in.....then they just want to get rid of it.....'cause it is irrelevant for the fund performance...and they dont want the hassle of monitoring it...

I'm hoping that Value Investments will be active to act for their own interests....and hence for those of PIs at the same time. (VI looks to be owned by 1 person, and large % of VI is in OCH.....so, imho they wont want to put in more money...and they will want to see a return from their orig. investment and orig. buying price. They are based in the City ...so , if any strings need pulling, or co-ordinating IIs, hopeful they would/are doing it).
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Personally I expect the IIs to vote no.......since they wont want imo the 2 exec. dirs. to obtain control of the co. This is the last chance for the IIs/PIs to keep control. And after raising 50M the IIs will not agree imo that the 2 friends of R & T (!) get most of the co. just in return for their salaries and the unpaid part of their 2009 bonus.
Another week almost over. Another 5000 euros for each director, tax free I assume, since Bellport is Cayman Is. registered.
(imo the dirs. will want to stay fixed to the breast of OCH, and keep drinking.....till there's nothing left to drink)

[markt] 07/12/2012 12:40

R & T

which is your opinion about the directors

- wanting to take over control of OCH (if get 40% then they have practical control)

- obtaining up to 73% (if no one else subscribes) of OCH mostly in return for their salaries and the remaining part of 2009 bonus not paid

noting that OCH took 50M pnds from shareholders by share issues
do you think it is morally "disgraceful" like I do ?

- making the resolutions non-pro rata ( a basic feature of UK Company Law, and OCH articles of assoc.)

- and are you part of the inner circle of OCH, or employed at Shore Capital (made loads from issuing 50M worth of shares, at 10% = 5M pnds) ?

[roughandtumbleone] 07/12/2012 04:54

Lazarus,Just reading your post regarding Orchid Gardens..."you talk about a little parking around the back", when in fact I think you meant "Orchid Gardens has 13,720 Sqm of underground parking". So parking is hardly "limited".You also state it's a small area. Carrefour have taken up 18% of the net lease space of OGs. Please can you post reference to the amount being paid PSM...http://www.investegate.co.uk/orchid-developments-(och)/rns/carrefour-supermarket-to-open-as-anchor-tenant/201208231106586559K/I suspect we should also hear shortly news on Orchid's Business Centre Varna that was stated to being sold.

[timtim5449] 06/12/2012 20:49

So what happens now?? if no what will happen if yes where will the co go?? anybody had any personal contact with Guy and got any info n how the company is actually going to succeed for us all? When ever I spoke to the Fin director on the phone he kept saying the share the share holders the share holders as though they really cared for us. Contact frm Guy was a similar line in an email. Looks like everybody had the same feeling from Guy. So, to be honest does it really matter how many shares they have as long as we are stuffed and slaughtered here. surely the largest II have the biggest STICK to yield here? Do they want to be involved/associated invested in a failure surely not. Maybe they dont care.

PS. כאן; הוא; כול;נו, אנו; יכו;לי–1; להת;פל–0; כי אנו; מקב;לי–1; דרך; זו. מזל; טוב; לכל;. של טים;.

[b3thany] 06/12/2012 20:25

Does anyone know what the grey market for Och stocks currently and post suspension (if fund raising is successful)? This may give an indication of sentiment and what could be expected.

[lazarus2010] 06/12/2012 20:04

not sure about the Carrefour lease deal, but if I can remember correctly there is quite limited parking - only around the back, none at the front or sides, I would therefore think this will be a Carrefour Express, no more than 1000m2 and no more than 8-10 Euro/m2...still that's about 100k rental income plus the t/o rent. There's a bit of competition around with many of the local old apartment blocks having retail units on ground floor, and there's a Bila just up the road, but Carrefour are a good operator and know their business so I would think they'll do ok. Will help to pay some of the debts, and they could even sell off the unit to an investor as Carrefour will sign a reasonably lengthy lease deal, and this could provide a decent capital injection. aimvho

from the web

Carrefour Express essentially utilizes the Carrefour name and values, taking them from the hypermarket to the scale of the supermarket.

Main aim:

To be close to consumers and offer all those things Carrefour is committed to:
•
Variety of products from the entire food range

•
100% quality Carrefour products

•
Fresh products guaranteed by Carrefour

•
Low prices on a daily basis

•
Offers on a daily basis


Carrefour Express specifications:

A Carrefour Express outlet is between 1200sqm-2000sqm with the sales section taking up 75% of the total area. It offers a live atmosphere for shopping since it is convenient, comfortable and designed for easy shopping.

What it means for Carrefour Express customers

Means ease, service, speed and proximity to Carrefour quality. It is ideal for today's individuals who lead fast-paced lives and demand quality, service and ease close to their home.

[knigel] 06/12/2012 19:55

Well I hope everyone will vote at the EGM to register their opinion on this open offer.

[bumpkinroll] 06/12/2012 19:51

timtim, hmmm, rabbit out of the bag. I very much hope so, but, it's very doubtful. Had they been capable of that, it would have happened this year IMO. My gut on this is, we're being taken for a ride. I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

Looks like the group voice/action attempt has failed here so will sit it out & see what unfolds.

GLA

[timtim5449] 06/12/2012 18:21

Thks KNIGel, could reduce my average by very little as made the ultimate mistake of all eggs in one basket etc, so all I personally can hope for that at some point my shares will get somewhere near what I paid for them, given up hopping for a profit, but HAY how knows how things can work out maybe things will become good for us. Well Fingers Xd and GL to all here. May be Guy will pull a rabbit out of the bag and turn out not to be as what some thought :).........

[knigel] 06/12/2012 17:58

Yes dont get overexposed here. I just wonder if the directors can hover up free float from pi selling once relisted. Im def reducing exposure asap

[timtim5449] 06/12/2012 17:41

Well took up a very small amount of shs, little spare funds for it, after spending so much in the first place on this company. Anyone got any ideas other than Market as to what is really going on here?? completley confused. Thks.