Orchid Developments Share Discussion Threads

[knigel] 11/12/2012 22:11

Loverat, yes as a retirement home away from the cold winter months... hand on, doesn't it snow there too? lol

[loverat] 11/12/2012 22:04

That does not sound overly cheap considering. This is in a city on the Black Sea coast - not the centre of Paris. Mind you, if I had the funds I might be interested as a nice part of Europe.

[knigel] 11/12/2012 21:19

No 11 am on the 14th December which is a shame because I am in London Friday but not until the afternoon. (btw cannot believe you did not know/recall the date after the hundreds of posts you have made in the last month)

[markt] 11/12/2012 21:14

Isnt the AGM on the 17th ?

(I'm not too fussed......my vote is no and no...and hoping that the decision will be not ...and that the exec. dirs. will be replaced.....and that then we may get action and/or real data about OCH.....and/or a pay-out such as a de-merger of the ring fenced assets with no debt (hotel and land companies)...to at least give me back most of my money.....imho the GM is worthless since imo it is worth less than the debt, based on a yield of 7-8% PBT I value it at around 70-80ME while debt is around 109ME I think...better to caste if off asap imo unless someone does want to actually pay the book value of 137ME (no way imo) )

[knigel] 11/12/2012 21:11

If it is that cheap, I'll be putting in an offer for one

[markt] 11/12/2012 21:09

51k euros for apartment in Orchid Gdns.
Approx. 40k pnds.

1 bed apartment I assume

Doesnt fit well imo with the idea of a mega luxury scheme or that there is a queue of buyers.

40k pnds looks pretty cheap to me. (but probably not one of the better ones, no mega terrace/balcony)

[markt] 11/12/2012 21:06

Linslader
your post on main thread says that I have made up stories of legal cases where OCH has had apartments taken by the courts to pay contractors that had not been paid.

markt
10 Dec'12 - 15:52 - 8945 of 8948

I beg to differ.
My data comes from the offer document and company accounts/notices.
If you want I can cut and paste. But not point I think, since I think that everyones know that it is true.
---

Everyone may have a different opinion on risk/reward and how to view the directors....but imho the data given in official documents can not be argued, it is there in black and white. (imho some people might not want to 'see' it)

[timtim5449] 11/12/2012 11:00

Isnt today the day of decisions?? where will we be?? for better or for worse this is the question. from darkness there was light, from ashes there was THE NEW OCH:))) hear we go at last hooray

[linslader] 11/12/2012 07:06

markt , I think you really need help , your obsession isn't normal and your imagination is running wild. Enough's enough for me good luck with your situation, filter island .

[markt] 10/12/2012 15:52

I think the taken apartments were 12 at Varna Hills (or if not then at Sofia Hills).....99.9% sure that not at Orchid Gdns (note that previously the Orchid Gdns had no occupation license...so the court probably wouldnt want to accept them as an asset)


there are other contractors/suppliers that have not been paid (and the OCH offer doc. says that the 'going concern' status is BASED on NOT paying them !..even if the new shares are issued to raise some money....)

so.....perhaps there may be more legal cases to seize apartments or assets by unpaid contractors/suppliers...

(not the type of situation that makes me want to put any new money into OCH, unless there is a change in the situation/news)

[daytraders] 10/12/2012 15:15

what were the aprartments we had taken from us to pay debt or something ?

[markt] 10/12/2012 15:00

-3 in Varna today. according to that estate agents website

Brrrr.

(personally I doubt there are many international or Russian buyers looking at property...jungle drums tell me that quite a few are buying in Spain.....and Canaries is around 23 these last few days apparently....people on the beach)

[markt] 10/12/2012 14:59

one of problems for OCH to sell apartments at Orchid Gdns are the HIGH costs to live there.

Mentions a swimming pool, spa, cafe.....

and says 1.2E/m2 management cost

100 m2 would be 120 euros/m2

add to that water, gas, electr., insurance etc...and the running costs for an apartment become high

average salary is I think around 500 euros.

For most Bulgarian people that puts the cost into the big earners bracket.....
and in Varna the number of people in that bracket is limited...and the number wanting to move from where they live now to Orchid Gdns, even smaller

Some people may have the cash, eg. if sell another apartment, or 'black' money from a business.....but may not have the regular monthly income that they could afford to live there....
----

If OCH runs the pool while the bld only has 10 apartments paying the management fee then that is bad news for OCH.

[markt] 10/12/2012 14:52

Orchid Gardens



"Maintenance:
For the offices - 1.50 euro/sq.m. for a month
For the apartments - 1,20 euro/sq.m. for a mouth;"

and imo the dirs. co. operates the cafes in the GM ..and maybe other services...has interest free loan of 300-400kE from OCH

perhaps that company already does the management of the existing apartments of OCH, at Varna Hills, Sofia, maybe the hotel.

(maybe that is why the hotel has a large turnover and a value of 7ME ...but operates close to break even ! novel !......imo all they need to do is operate reception and receive the money...and provide a few cleaners.....how that uses up all the rental payments I dont know !)

the dirs. may be setting up to do the maintenance of Orchid Gdns (and other apartments ?) via a company owned by them....


-----

imo I believe that the dirs. are setting up the OCH services...and them as dirs. at 300KE each per year....to tax haven....

as a lifetime job....

and if the vote is YES at the EGM....then they will have control of OCH...and imo it will be impossible to remove them....

[markt] 10/12/2012 14:45

...but 'if' the apartment sales are previous sales then we already knew that 10 apartments were sold in the past....and already in the old accounts...

(1 of the execs. bt. 1 I think)

----

BTW
they sold 1.8ME of apartments in period to end June 2012

and imo reported a loss of 0.6ME on those sales. A big % loss ref. book value.

not good news and not a good property market imo.

[genises] 10/12/2012 13:23

no just follow the link.
It will show you the cost of each apartment/office and what has been sold and what has been booked.Due to being an estate agent I would assume it is updated regularly.
2 MILLION EUROS TO DATE ON SALES /BOOKED IF PRICE HAS BEEN ACHIEVED

[markt] 10/12/2012 12:32

Best case ?!

Eh,....the dirs. return the 50M pnds of cash raised to shareholders !! ;-)

----

2) Best case.
New dirs. arrive who have some interest in shareholders interests !

And sell the supermarket part of Orchid Gdns to Carrefour.
And the money is used to pay some of installments on Orch. Gdns loans.
By a suddent stroke of good fortune they announce that a buyer has fallen from the sky and bought all the apartments at Orchid Gdns; despite having had the opportunity during at least 18 months and not having said a word. And at a high price, making OCH a profit.
And then other big buyers arrive for the rest of the m2.

3) A drunk pension fund arrives and pays the book price for the GM. 137ME
(giving a low yield)....despite no one having been interested in buying it before now.

etc

since no big sales happened in 2012.....the % probability would appear to be small imo.

[knigel] 10/12/2012 12:30

But it will not get to 73% as there will be some open offer take up

[markt] 10/12/2012 12:25

Reminder of the calc. for dirs. interests

Now got 30%.
Can go to 73% if the EGM votes yes and yes.

approx. NAV = 56M pnds if believe the accounts.
30% = 17M pnds

After the share issue, if happens then NAV = 56 + 3M approx. = 59M
73% of 59M = 43M pnds

Delta = 43-15 = 28M pnds of NAV
Cost = 2.6M for 28M pnds of NAV

------

Cost = 2.6M for 28M pnds of NAV !

So I can see why the dirs. will vote yes !
And dirs. will get control of the company, and hence can influence/decide how any assets are handed out or exchanged for loans from the dirs, and dirs. can imo g'tee to keep taking 600kE/year.

(but noting that the mkt does not believe the accounts, the true obtainable NAV is not known to PIs)

------

(2.6 = 4 x 0.6M + 0.2 existing loan)

0.6M 2012 salary
0.6M 2013 salary
0.6M remaining part of 2009 bonus
0.6M 1 year notice
0.2M existing loan from dirs. to OCH

[knigel] 10/12/2012 06:46

Do u have the dates of sales please?

[genises] 09/12/2012 23:29

HERE is an update.
suprise no mention of the offices booked or sold in the rns????

Orchid Gardens" - Varna
office section

АP.level UNITS

13-3 Office booked rough price 100,000euros
18-5 Office sold rough price 300,000euros
16-6 Office sold rough price 200,000euros
19-6 Office booked rough price 270,000euros

lets look at the apartments.
19-7 booked euros122,144
20-7 sold euros122,144
21-7 sold euros122,241
18-8 sold euros 75,000
10-9 sold euros145,000
11-9 sold euros145,000
10-11 booked euros189,000
6-13 sold euros200,000
7-13 sold euros200,000

The above are rough prices as on the sold ones no price is advertised on the booked one they are.
Not a shareholder but know a few shareholders in here thought you would like to know

If you want the price list go here

[b3thany] 09/12/2012 21:33

markt,

Thb I do not know the ins and outs of the Och stocks or company structure. However, from experience I instinctively smelt a rat when the two senior managers (grossly overpaid with no value generated for shareholders) were unable to cash call when share price was higher, unable to offload revenue churning asset/s when "valuations" were multiples of debts, not attracting any serious asset stripper interests or value seekers, etc. Also, there was no correlation between "perceived" value by management and market. When looked in details the conditions attached to the 20p "red herring" stock option engineered by the two senior managers imo solely to consolidate their "hold" over company and other shareholders alarms bells began ringing loudly. The rest is history. Wishing you a satisfactory outcome in Och.

[knigel] 09/12/2012 15:29

Maybe we can have some "best case" comments instead of "worse case"??