Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 13/3/2018 12:27

I feel recent sellers made the classic mistake of buy high sell low.

Yup and no doubt Badger and Jotoha are still whining in a parallel universe about why the share is still in the low 50's because the institution haven't bought in!

[romeike] 13/3/2018 12:25

Also important to note that as queried on here earlier - the $55 million cost going into Fortuna is contingent on achieving FID. That's an important point for someone weighing up an investment now. I can see FID sending this to around 100-120p a share but I suspect we will need ongoing positive news flow to get any higher. Quite an attractive return for punters who bought in under 60p. I feel recent sellers made the classic mistake of buy high sell low.

[nigelpm] 13/3/2018 12:06

If a positive RNS follows the current rise it will make OPHR look like a pretty leaky ship...

Not sure I follow. A major institution just bought 700k shares - you'd expect the price to go up on that basis.

Short term share prices get moved around by short term supply/demand.

[nigelpm] 13/3/2018 09:06

Clearly Mark Wilson (Jefferies analyst) is hugely sceptical of Nick Cooper and the board and I would guess at some history between them given Nick's comment afterwards.

[nigelpm] 13/3/2018 09:05

This bit amused me when I watched it :


At the end of the day you’ve got to staple them all together, and they’ve all got to work together. And don’t forget there’s a big question of liabilities in that, which generates a lot of those conversations. People generally think about financing as cash. Actually, when you do the big project like this, the challenge is liabilities and making sure that who’s going to pick up the bills when things start to go wrong, and that’s getting ahead around that.

Mark Wilson


That’s one new word, so Okay

Nick Cooper

I’m not trying to be cute, and referring back to Mark’s comment at the end. We’re not trying to hide anything here, but it’s not in our shareholder’s best to give anything, firstly, that’s not public domain commercially sensitive or to give specific timelines when we’re not in control of those timelines.

[nigelpm] 12/3/2018 17:26

Got my final top up done last week at 54p (after watching the investor presentation & Q&A) - now it's just sit back and hope the company can deliver on what they are hoping to achieve.

If they can get Fortuna financing and half of the other stuff we'll be well north of £1 IMHO.

[nigelpm] 12/3/2018 16:30

Yup - so it was :



Bought another c.700k

[zcaprd7] 09/3/2018 14:51

Strong today, makes a change... Bit of a delayed reaction, or some other news coming?

[speedsgh] 09/3/2018 14:07

Link to results webcast available on Ophir website...

[nigelpm] 09/3/2018 13:27

Solid move off the low 50's which has been a base for a while.

Not surprised - anyone watching the investor call and reading between the lines will have worked out that there's still a very good chance of Fortuna financing coming in which will directly uplift the valuation.

[jotoha2] 08/3/2018 12:51

Come on Mr Nice Cooper , get this company up for sale , should fetch £1.30 , am sure major holders will take it , or else resign and get in somebody who has the contacts to get this deal done.

[nigelpm] 08/3/2018 12:26

Excellent summary - only slight inaccuracy :


It says only that it hopes for a final investment decision this year.

In the Q&A Nick Cooper gave a bit more guidance :

My Rough translation:


Could it be December this year? "Technically - yes"

Do we think it will be December? - "Absolutely not"

"We've learnt from last year about making promises to the market so are being much more cautious now"

All this leads me to believe by the end of Q3 is their internal expectation but clearly hoping earlier - perhaps end of Q2 - certainly not imminent though.

I got the impression their shareholders (quite rightly) have been giving them a severe kicking for :

1) Over-promising they'd close out the financing last year
2) Share price performance

[speedsgh] 08/3/2018 11:32

From today's Tempus column in The Times...



Ophir Energy
The world needs more liquefied natural gas. That’s the message from Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron, oil majors that have warned of a supply shortfall in the early 2020s as demand booms.

There is plenty of gas out there; the problem is money. Developing a project to produce gas and then to supercool it to -160C for shipping by tanker costs billions of dollars that banks are proving reluctant to lend.

Ophir Energy is a case in point. It wants to develop a floating LNG plant at Fortuna off the coast of Equatorial Guinea, west Africa; it had been targeting a go-ahead in mid-2016 and producing its first gas in mid-2019. It has partners on board, Schlumberger and Golar, and a provisional agreement to sell the gas to Gunvor. Yet the companies just can’t get financing over the line for the $2 billion cost of producing that initial gas.

Ophir admitted its frustration yesterday after failing to secure a deal with Chinese banks last year. Talks on other options are continuing, but Ophir doesn’t seem to be suggesting that anything is imminent. It says only that it hopes for a final investment decision this year. The first phase would now not be up and running until 2022. When that final investment decision is made, Ophir’s reserves should more than treble and when the field starts up, production could double. Yet investors are tired of waiting. Shares in Ophir, which floated at 250p in 2011 and were double that a year later, are at a low of 53p.

If Fortuna does get the go-ahead, those shares are likely to surge. Al Stanton, at RBC Capital Markets, has pointed out, however, that gas would still be years away and “investors’ concerns would probably switch from financing risk to delivery risk”. Long-suffering shareholders might be tempted to get out at the final investment decision stage; Ophir, he suggests, could do worse than consider a strategic review, perhaps putting itself up for sale at that point.

Fortuna may ultimately favour the brave, but patience is needed and nothing is guaranteed. Still, with Ophir’s operations well-funded from its producing assets in Asia and its shares surely approaching rock-bottom, this is not the time to sell.

ADVICE Hold
WHY Fortuna go-ahead still far away, but no obvious catalysts to fall further

[jotoha2] 08/3/2018 10:41

That is it , all in PMO , dead money here at best , lack of funding then it's 30p for starters .

[jotoha2] 08/3/2018 10:25

Share buy back , crazy , with their track record in that area , what was it again £25/£40 million @£1.40 ea , that is now down 60% on their investment, if they follow the same pattern the share price is likely to hit 12p , time to get out sharply.

[nigelpm] 07/3/2018 22:40

Also mention of the share buyback - won't be before Fortuna FID - but certainly on the radar.

[nigelpm] 07/3/2018 22:32

Also a really good point about why the Fortuna funding is taking so long - it's not a bilateral negotiation - excellent Q&A - highly recommend watching. Will educate.

[nigelpm] 07/3/2018 22:23

On the website :

[loglorry1] 07/3/2018 22:13

Nigel do you have a link to the Q&A pls?

[nigelpm] 07/3/2018 22:09

Lots of good stuff worth listening to in the Q&A - interesting debate on the NAV.

[nigelpm] 07/3/2018 21:08

That's somewhat odd - how many other E&P's have net cash?