Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[badger60] 30/1/2018 13:17

I wonder what the next Barclay Capital forecast update will be? My guess is 65p.........any other takers?

[jotoha2] 30/1/2018 13:17

Badger if Fortuna is put on hold , then they will not need more cash , they have increased free cash last year and will do so again this year . I would of thought selling the last 20% of Tanzania would give them plenty of cash to develop other less expensive projects.

[badger60] 30/1/2018 13:09

My guess is that Fortuna will be put on hold, like Tanzania is, and Cooper will be coming around with the begging bowl sometime this year and issue more shares. Hopefully someone will have come before then with a half decent bid for the company. Imo the major iis have already forced the bad news about Fortuna out of Cooper and are left with hoping to salvage some shareholder value by selling off the assets or a takeover. If they tried to bale out now they would kill it stone dead long before they could liquidate 10% of their collective holdings.

[nigelpm] 30/1/2018 12:53

nigelpm - Something is definitely up,

What's your basis for that?

[spooky] 30/1/2018 12:51

nigelpm - Something is definitely up, the question is, is it in the price. They have been talking about wrapping up an FID for Fortuna for years and yet it never happens. Add the fun and games with Schlumberger and there is pretty clear evidence that something is wrong. Management future really has to be in question here too, i'm surprised more hasn't happened on that front already. Is it in the price? I'm not a sector specialist but i am fairly adept at reading market signals. I do not have a position.

[badger60] 30/1/2018 12:44

Since mid 2011 to now the company has raised circa $1.5bn in share issuance plus the $1.29bn from the 20% Tanzania sale to Pavilion. ......and currently has a net cash position of $103mio. It's all chronologically bullet point listed in the "history" section on the Ophir web site.

[zcaprd7] 30/1/2018 12:40

Wrong? You said in your own post that some of the capex is for fortuna, if they don't sign a deal for that, how will they spend money on it?

[jotoha2] 30/1/2018 12:39

Not to sure about the amount they paid for Salamander , but they issued mega shares at 250p and 460p , they then pulled in $1.3 billion for 20% of Tanzania . Incredible as some of those early investors are still there holding those initial investments , that Polish guy's estate is the only who have walked following his death.

[zcaprd7] 30/1/2018 12:34

Capital expenditure will only occur if the deal is signed... Doubled my holding here.

[orinocor] 30/1/2018 12:29

badger6029 Jan '18 - 11:05 - 3555 of 3575
0 0 0
Yes.....even for a company where the management have sp#nked away the thick end of $3bn in 6.5 years, the asset value is not reflected in the share price ......but it could still go alot lower.


Have they really blown $3 billion? I can't see this from the previous news.

[jotoha2] 30/1/2018 12:29

With most companies , bad news usually brings a big drop , since the last rns which said Finance discussions still ongoing , the share price has dropped by nearly 30% , major holders are still holding on, why would that be if the insiders know that finance is fuuuckkkked , something is not right here , but what that is we shall soon find out , very poor if it's a stitch up.

[orinocor] 30/1/2018 12:27

It's the level of capital expenditure that is killing this as an investment and that is why the shares are being sold down.

2018 capital expenditure is going to dwarf underlying cash flow from production. The trading update says that --


Underlying cash flow from production (including Sinphuhorm and before working capital adjustments) is forecast to be approximately $90 million at an average Brent oil price of $57 per bbl. On a unit basis this equates to $21 per boe.

· Capital expenditure (before working capital adjustments) is expected to be approximately $150 million. Around 70% of this is expected to be spent on production and development with major areas of expenditure being Bualuang Phase IV ($30 million) and Fortuna ($65 million).

[badger60] 30/1/2018 11:58

No..........the market is telling you that the financing won't get done......

[nigelpm] 30/1/2018 11:51

At this stage the market appears to be telling you that the financing won't get done.

No, the market is telling you that people are selling.

Their reasons for selling could be numerous.

[spooky] 30/1/2018 11:07

At this stage the market appears to be telling you that the financing won't get done.

[badger60] 30/1/2018 11:05

Taken from this months trading update. Apart from spouting meaningless soundbite babble like "asymmetric upside", why isn't Cooper already "generating significant cash flow growth elsewhere within the portfolio", instead of telling us that he has the ability to do it? My pet dung beetle could have done a far better job with the circa $3bn that Cooper has squandered over the past 6.5 years".........has reached financial stability. We ended 2017 in a strong financial position with increased gross liquidity and considerable discretionary capital available for investment. A proportion of this is earmarked for the Fortuna project but we still retain capacity to invest elsewhere in our portfolio to generate significant cash flow growth.""Our core Asia business is delivering solid, profitable growth. Our 1bn boe of discovered resources offer asymmetric upside and our under-levered balance sheet provides the means to deliver."

[badger60] 30/1/2018 10:41

Oh dear...

[nigelpm] 30/1/2018 10:41

These were already in the bottom drawer, nothing has changed.

Agreed - financing will get done - market just throwing a wobbly as it often does.

[romeike] 30/1/2018 10:31

These were already in the bottom drawer, nothing has changed.

[badger60] 30/1/2018 10:10

It looks like oil is on the turn a bit.....which isn't going to help.

[badger60] 30/1/2018 10:08

People are getting cold feet. Regardless of the perceived value of the assets, if the management are incapable of monetising them which this bunch of muppets isn't, then they they ain't worth a carrot unless they can sell them. In the meantime it's going to be net cash burn......or business as usual.......while we await the RNS bombshell that the Fortuna finance ain't gonna happen........

[nigelpm] 30/1/2018 09:50

Just lots of selling - don't think there's any attempt to walk it down etc..

[orinocor] 30/1/2018 09:32

share price getting routed