Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[dave4545] 12/1/2024 09:39

79k delayed buy at open 11.3p no move

28k sale 10.88p mm drops

This has been manipulated down for weeks now, loads of decent buys but price edges lower

[dave4545] 08/1/2024 11:15

2 bid now Wins see if there is a delayed buy.

Funny that on the lowest volume for ages the price is starting to rise.

[dave4545] 05/1/2024 10:48

Stupid uncrossing trade at 11.8p yesterday

Price is now actually up but still red

Cenkos back on 11p bid

[dave4545] 03/1/2024 15:11

Cenkos up on no trade 14.46pm so see if a delayed buy pops up in a hour

[tim000] 02/1/2024 11:18

Unlike many, OPG investors had a good 2023. No reason why 2024 should be any different. India’s economy will comfortably outpace the global economy, and Indian power demand will outpace its GDP growth. High PLFs for OPG are just as important as low coal prices for driving profits.

[rivaldo] 02/1/2024 11:11

Those who bought at 6.5p or thereabouts will be feeling pretty happy. Hopefully those of us buying in at these levels will be equally happy over the next few months!

[jeffian] 02/1/2024 09:53

But something we've all been saying for many years now!

This time tomorrow, Rodney........

[tim000] 02/1/2024 09:50

Good reasoning

[rivaldo] 02/1/2024 09:47

I've bought back in here for the first time in ages recently on the dip, which was a pleasant surprise as I thought the share price would get away from me.

There are many obvious reasons for buying here, including the cash generation, the much reduced price of coal, growing demand for power, the Indian government's push for growth, the low rating etc - and above all the potentially very large share price upside.

[florence141414] 30/12/2023 12:01

Thanks Tim

[tim000] 30/12/2023 09:14

Assuming there is still thermal generation in India in 35 years’ time, which I think is likely, I would guess that the economics will favour capex to extend the life of the plant. If so, the capex would only take place in the final years of the existing plant’s life, so personally I don’t see this as an issue. I have no idea of decommissioning costs, but it’s not a nuclear plant obviously, there will be no environmentally sensitive materials on site so demolition and clearance costs would surely be fairly minimal. There will also be salvage revenues to take into account.

[florence141414] 30/12/2023 08:55

Just caught up with the IMC presentation. The sticking point is that they are not operating in legitimate supply/demand environment as the tariffs imposed on them are tethered to the price of coal. Of course, this was the same dynamic that saved them from disaster when coal prices were through the roof so we can't have it both ways.

It does seem that market forecasts are again too low if the PLF has increased in H2. However, we can't be absolutely sure of this without knowing the tariffs for the period as well.

All in all, with profits protected and limited in equal measure, 35 years of plant life left to run, demand all but guaranteed by 7 years of zero thermal development (save for a miracle green innovation) and assuming the crazy coal price spike of 21/22 was a one off then I think that the future cash flows of the business are almost certain to be multiples of today's market cap.

The only thing that I have no clues about is the cost of decommissioning a plant like this once those 35 years are up. Can anyone shed any light on this, please?

[dave4545] 27/12/2023 15:42

50k sold for 10.77p

Thought the days were over for these lows hey ho this is the market, when they drift people sell and when they spike everybody is buying

[dave4545] 27/12/2023 11:23

Yep, looks like one pi is getting out holding size. 3 delayed sales within a minute

All the delayed retriggers point to somebody selling then quickly reloading
online and selling more every 15 seconds.

[dave4545] 27/12/2023 10:27

mm's are certainly going for it unless there's more delayed sales, plenty of buys little movement but 4 mm's drop on 2 sales just now on L2.

[dave4545] 22/12/2023 17:24

Certainly is, identical sale at 11.03p as well.

Going to be a cracking buying opportunity at this rate.

[chalky] 22/12/2023 16:03

It s called he herd effect once one sheep does something all the rest follow.

[dave4545] 22/12/2023 12:10

People are giving up here 86k sold at 11.53p seems too low ?

[dave4545] 20/12/2023 15:17

159k buy showing as a sale of course

[dave4545] 20/12/2023 09:41

Somebody paid 12.95p at the open.

Yet now online it's 12.26-12.41p so nowhere near 13p offer on monitor

[the original goldbug] 19/12/2023 10:31

My understanding is that they are at full run rate on the PLF. Indian coal mines from the North are at the margin taking share away from The seaborne coal trade.

The set up is looking good.

[dave4545] 19/12/2023 08:14

Agree, keep it sensible bubba

Anyway out of nowhere it's moving on L2 and NT to buy online so perhaps a delayed
buy to show in a hour

[tim000] 19/12/2023 07:01

That’s just a stupid comment. Without knowing the future trends in PLF, prices, coal prices etc, you don’t know future profitability. And you certainly don’t know their future capital allocation policy - they don’t know it themselves. Buybacks may or may not happen at all, either way the important thing is future profitability.

[tim000] 18/12/2023 19:51

The debt has maturity dates. What matters is not the debt (which as you know is enormously reduced in recent years) but the cash generation of the business. If cash generation is good, as I expect, then the buybacks etc will follow. You overlook how much improved the balance sheet is - you ignore a large increase in liquid assets for example.