Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[cousinit] 09/11/2023 12:10

btw hope you're feeling better by the time of the call Dave!

[cousinit] 09/11/2023 12:09

Hope they will just present after the interims. Saves talking all around such outdated financials with no indication of current trading - presume market sensitivity would have precluded anything meaningful on that today.

[tim000] 09/11/2023 11:11

Illness of a presenter is given as the reason.

[gb904150] 09/11/2023 11:05

Lined up an IMC meeting for Wednesday 11am.

Postponed it to today 11am.

Now postponed only 20 mins before the meeting starts to 'a date in the near future'.

I can only assume they are struggling with the tech to get the webinar set up but it's not a great look!

[dave4545] 09/11/2023 09:00

Presentation at 11am this morning

mm's shaking down atm on a few sales

[dave4545] 08/11/2023 16:25

Once again huge buys with a string of small pi sales and mm's still not budging.

12-13.5p

Online is quite strong as you would expect with big buys nearer the 13.5p mark

12.675-13.3p best

[dave4545] 08/11/2023 09:36

Interim results they were

[dave4545] 08/11/2023 09:36

Tim

See the reaction to mrit results this morning price has spiked on 500k profits net debt over 2 million v 17 million market cap...just shows how good value opg is

[tim000] 08/11/2023 09:21

The Board of the subsidiary OPG Power Generation Private (the operator of the coal power plants) is meeting next Tuesday 14th to approve the subsidiary’s half-yearly accounts. These accounts are usually published on the OPG website, and might be published on BSE as well.

[dave4545] 07/11/2023 18:25

Nice buyer in the stock and clever too, kept buying 2 lots of £10k around 12.7p, backed off and let the smaller pi's sell again at 12-12.2p then picked up another 2 x £10k, kept doing this and then when cat out of the bag bought 3 lots of £5k at 13.5p offer, 120k and 125k buys too when others sold.

How do the sellers not notice this so obvious ?

[dave4545] 07/11/2023 13:04

Oof 10k max 12.95p looks like the mm's have ran out of mugs to sell so low and the buyer is hitting them hard

[dave4545] 07/11/2023 12:45

Just to point out that Cenkos has switched to the bid recently

Now 3 v 1

Wonder if they are buying up all the sales for clients, somebody else is buying £10k clips in 2 lots now and again not to effect the price much...stakebuilding

[tim000] 07/11/2023 09:18

I take your point Dave, but Cavendish is the only broker covering OPG, so they alone define market expectations, and I doubt anyone pays any attention to what they say. I guess very few people access their forecasts anyway.

[dave4545] 07/11/2023 08:37

Like I said Tim.

Stock A worth £40 mil

Stock B worth £40 mil

Both stocks identical fundamentals

Stock A forecast to make £8 mil profit

Stock B forecast to make £3 mil profits

Both stocks announce profits of £5 mil, stock A plunges and stock B soars even though
both have exactly the same numbers. Perhaps smashing a lowly forecast will finally give OPG the rating it deserves ?

[tim000] 07/11/2023 08:34

OPG reports net cash holdings as follows:
-6.9 (31/3/22); -9.3 (31/3/23); 18.6 (31/8/23)

Cavendish reports net cash holdings as follows:
-6.9 (22); -16.1 (23); -12 (24).

So Cavendish hasn’t got the FY23 outturn nearly correct in their latest note published yesterday, despite OPG publishing the outturn on 22/9/23. And the Cavendish forecast for FY24 is completely implausible given an outturn of £18.6mn at end-August.

[tim000] 06/11/2023 21:32

Ah, thanks

[florence141414] 06/11/2023 21:29

Hi Tim, fortunately the impairment was actually much more straightforward than that. It was from the solar asset. It made a profit this year so they added some of the carrying value back (from an impairment in either 21 or 22) to reflect the increased prospects.

[dave4545] 06/11/2023 20:41

They should use some of the surplus cash to buyback stock if pi's are selling this low.

This market is the most backward I have seen in 30 years, stocks with no money massive losses and on the brink of going under are being chased and bought up like they are good things, seeing huge % rises. Meanwhile as always good value is being ignore although saying that the mm's have played a blinder today, there's been some delayed decent buys and the mm's have sold it, waited and sure enough other traders lose patience and sell back stock they bought this morning.

But anyway a share buyback would work wonders here

[tim000] 06/11/2023 20:37

I haven’t had a chance to study the results yet, but Florence/Matt has made an interesting observation about the reversal of impairments. My understanding is that most state utilities (but especially Tangedco) have weak balance sheets due to electricity price freezes. As a result, they have been slow to pay gencos. It’s possible this is why OPG has impaired revenues in the past that were long overdue settlement. The government has allowed discoms to repay overdue debts over a four year period, while price increases have been allowed so as to improve discoms’ finances. My point is that if impairment reversals are accrued over this four year period, they might not be a one-off at all.

[rivaldo] 06/11/2023 15:50

Mnay thanks Florence (and Tim), that's extremely useful.

[dave4545] 06/11/2023 13:48

Better to smash a low forecast than come in below a sky high forecast then the shares soar.

So when opg tell the markets they are going to smash cenkos lowly target the price should recover spectacularly I hope

[the original goldbug] 06/11/2023 13:23

The full year numbers looks way behind the curve. Back of the envelope I think we are looking at £17- 20m net on the underlying business, no funny stuff included. That included a so so first half when the forecast was made.

Don’t forget the early Chennai units are coming to the enes of their depreciation at least as far as the accounts are involved.

[florence141414] 06/11/2023 12:44

Hi Rivaldo, I think I may be able to shed some light. All the profits for FY23 were a combination of 2.2m forward selling coal, a 3m insurance settlement and 3.7m positive reversal of a previous impairment. The core operation of turning coal into electricity and selling it on was actually loss making in FY23 thanks to extremely unfavourable market conditions. These conditions have now improved greatly.

The broker note for FY24 assumes none of these non core profits will repeat. As such the core operations of the business are forecast to go from a small loss to a 5.6m profit before tax. A vast improvement. One that I suspect they will outperform but that’s just my opinion.

[tim000] 06/11/2023 12:43

We’ve discussed their poor forecasts. Personally I think they’re worthless. I don’t think Cavendish make any money from OPG, eg there are almost no institutional shareholders to pay for research, so the analyst (who I’ve emailed) puts little/no effort imho into forecasting their financials. For example, I don’t believe the forecasts take into account the latest trading update on net cash holdings, nor government announcements that mandate OPG to maximise PLF for the whole of FY24 and Q1 FY25.