Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[the original goldbug] 02/10/2023 09:23

I don’t think it will be suspended for more than two to three weeks.

[dave4545] 02/10/2023 08:33

Guess you are not keeping up with current events ali

Read trading update

[ali47fish] 02/10/2023 08:32

suspended listing with no reason given-shame on them

[tim000] 29/9/2023 13:48

OPG sale must end 4:30pm Friday. Bringing out the buyers.

[the original goldbug] 28/9/2023 09:41

Over the next two years Indian domestic coal production will increase by 200m tonnes taking the same amount of demand away from the global seaborne coal market of 1.4bn tonnes. That should have quite a chilling effect on seaborne prices and serve OPG well.

I don’t see any reason why we can’t have 4-5 years of EBIT in the £40m + region.

Personally I hope they do buybacks rather than dividends given the very low share price valuation. Cash is returned to shareholders while the equity shrinks hence juicing future returns.

I wonder what the endgame is and how they will use cash. I suspect they will be tempted to grow is they can buy an asset out of receivership at the right price. Longer term they should try and list in India. AIM is moribund graveyard of a market.

[tim000] 28/9/2023 08:58

Yes, we can expect the share price to rerate as net cash continues to accumulate. But there should be no end-point to this rerating, good cashflow should be fairly permanent. India is probably the fastest growing economy in the world, resulting in rapid demand growth for power. New power supply capacity is not keeping up, hence government edicts to coal power gencos to maximise output. Basic economics suggests persistent excess demand will sustain high margins for gencos, necessary to increase capex in new capacity.

[nathandc] 28/9/2023 08:06

Some great insight as usual - thanks Tim000Next 12 months a head hopefully finally recognises the value of OPG.

[tim000] 27/9/2023 17:59

Worth noting that the sterling/rupee exchange rate is falling again. That’s good because a weak rupee devalues the (sterling) book value of the group.

[tim000] 27/9/2023 17:56

Goldbug says the Indian power sector is not consolidating, because profits aren’t currently secure enough to incentivise acquisitions. There is no end game on the horizon for OPG at the moment. Their goal is to return to consistent profitability, pay consistent dividends and hence get the share price back to historical levels. That will suffice for investors. Personally I don’t want them speculating in acquisitions themselves, they don’t have a good record. It’s why the share price has been so low.

[nathandc] 27/9/2023 17:40

Speculating Accounts are published Share price re- rates Predictable revenue and profits are demonstrable Do they get acquiredWhat is the end game for OPG ?

[dave4545] 25/9/2023 09:56

10.94-11.24p

Think the mm's will be happy to see all this 2 way trade all week long.

Still extremely well bid atm

[dave4545] 25/9/2023 08:18

£5000 buys are quite relentless, was loads on Friday and they have already started this morning.

People are clearly not put off by the suspension coming and think it's worth the risk to get such a low price knowing if/when it returns it will be double this level at least imo

[dave4545] 24/9/2023 14:47

Thanks Tim

[tim000] 24/9/2023 10:17

The finance team has been kept busy in recent months by the repayment of the £20mn NCD, arrangement of new bank facilities and repayment of all project debt, the latest NCD issue, and the new short-term contract with a discom, in addition to day-to-day managing all the subsidiaries within the group. It’s not altogether surprising they are behind with closing the consolidated accounts of the whole group.

[tim000] 24/9/2023 10:08

I’ve mentioned before that the company issued another NCD, I think in late August and in fact for ca £3mn, not the £5mn I had thought. This should have been included in the company’s reported gross cash and debt figures for 31 August announced Friday, and which explains why gross debt was higher than my estimated £20mn following the maturity of the £20mn NCD in May. The reason for the latest small NCD remains uncertain, but the gross and net cash figures are now outstanding, given the steady monetisation of its receivables book at end-March. Note of course that high PLFs in recent months will have resulted in new receivables, and hence the half-year results are likely to show continued above-average receivables at end-September, with thus further scope for high cash generation in the rest of the FY.

[tim000] 24/9/2023 09:58

Dave, the only market expectations that exist are the forecasts of its broker, Cavendish, ex-Cenkos (whose forecasts for FY2024 are discredited but whose estimates for FY2023 will have been informed by discussions with OPG’s management). They have adjusted EBITDA of £14mn and pre-tax profits of £5.5mn.

[dave4545] 24/9/2023 09:42

tim

"The Company's FY23 financial results are expected to be in line with market expectations"

Do you know what market expectations are ?

[tim000] 22/9/2023 15:41

AWE, an interesting semi-conductor business, announced a similar delay in publishing their accounts, which temporarily hit the share price and resulted in the resignation of the FD. That was due to delays at the auditor’s end, less to do with the company itself. The share price soon recovered and then some. AWE has a £billion mkt cap.

[dave4545] 22/9/2023 15:33

I've seen stock with no turnover not get their accounts out since covid times so any decent sized business perhaps excusable.

[tim000] 22/9/2023 15:30

The forecast PLF of 58% this year looks cautious and could easily be beaten. The government keeps extending the mandate for coal-importing gencos to maximise output, and now that the monsoon season is coming to an end, and with the Indian economy performing well, it’s not much of a stretch to see OPG signing new contracts with discoms etc to get PLFs closer to optimum efficiency.

[the original goldbug] 22/9/2023 14:49

It's great that we have a major volume day, it gets rid of stale longs....

[the original goldbug] 22/9/2023 14:48

The suspension sounds like a technicality based on AIM rules. The fact that they have given colour on the situation as of end August is their attempt to soothe investors.

It's very good news really but I would like more information on why the audit has been delayed.

[beangrinder] 22/9/2023 14:31

Note out from Cavendish with 19p target price.