Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[dave4545] 14/8/2023 15:58

Just stuck in a constant battle. 9.5p offer buyers, 9p bid people sell.

Been like this for ages.

[tim000] 14/8/2023 14:35

A dividend announced with the annual results next month would almost certainly shift the share price. If Q2 results are published and are good, I’ll buy some more. Unfortunately, the quarterly results will only include a P/L account and not a cashflow account. The latter would be very useful in showing the extent trade receivables have been monetised.

[the original goldbug] 14/8/2023 14:23

I feel this thing is just about to pop and run until at least 12 in the short term.

[the original goldbug] 14/8/2023 14:22

The fact that there are worse offenders does not make it right! (Or conducive to potential investors)

[dave4545] 14/8/2023 14:03

9.22-9.64p online not the worst spread out there for penny stocks

[the original goldbug] 14/8/2023 13:54

The problem for people is the outrageous spread.

[dave4545] 14/8/2023 12:15

True, I do not get the buy orders each order when they can get filled for 0.2p more

I wonder if they will upp their prices in the next auction now it's 9.64p offer online.

[tim000] 14/8/2023 12:14

There’s a good chance the Q2 OPG thermal power plants subsidiary results will be published on bse in the next couple of weeks. A year ago they were published by now.

[tim000] 14/8/2023 12:12

If you think a share is chronically undervalued, you probably are not the only one. Delaying buying for a fraction of a penny doesn’t make sense to me, someone will outbid you and force the price higher. That’s what’s happened today, seemingly just with a 50k buy (unless there is a delayed trade).

[dave4545] 14/8/2023 10:51

Plenty of buy orders at 9-9.1p each auction trying to get a lower fill

[tim000] 14/8/2023 10:09

ICI4 $51.09/t, a new low for the past few years.

[dave4545] 11/8/2023 15:07

Still here Tim, endless battle around the 9-9.5p mark, people sell at 9p bid and others are happy to buy 9.25-9.5p

Well bid atm almost mid price to sell

[tim000] 08/8/2023 13:34

Coal India announced their FY24 Q1 results today. Results were better than expected but not enough detail was released to make any inferences for OPG in the same quarter. CIL e auction prices for all GCVs averaged R3740/t in the quarter, probably ending the period around R3250/t. No comparative data for earlier periods were given.

[tim000] 07/8/2023 16:22

ICI4 price $51.53, pretty much flat since the recent low of $51.32 on 3/7/23.

[tim000] 06/8/2023 18:36

India currently exports no more than 2mn tonnes of coal per annum to neighboring countries. So unlike other coal producing countries, there are not currently the logistics in place to export excess supplies.

[tim000] 06/8/2023 17:13

The premium paid in the auction market over the Fuel Supply Agreement notified price has fallen dramatically over the past 15 months, from 425% in May 2022 to a reported 55% in mid-June. In theory, the miner should be willing to offer an FSA discount to the average future market (auction) price to guarantee longer term sales. However, in the short term, excess supply could easily result in auction prices falling below FSA notified prices - storage costs, finance costs and the fact that coal deteriorates over time mean that miners would be willing to sell at auction at prices even below the unit cost of production. (Just as oil prices have briefly gone negative in the past.) So whereas OPG had to stop generating in the past year due to record coal prices, it’s possible that auction prices might fall to very low levels in the next few years - almost irrespective of the global coal market.

[tim000] 06/8/2023 11:16

Total Indian production of non-coking coal increased by about 100mn tonnes in FY 2023 to ca 830mn tonnes. It is targeted to increase by another 100mn tonnes in the current FY, with a focus on supplying the power sector. Imports increased by about 30mn tonnes last FY to 180mn tonnes. So domestic production of cheap coal dwarfs imports. By contrast, the government has a temporary ban on new coal power generation plants, so thermal coal demand should be relatively stable. That strongly suggests continued falls in e auction prices over the next year or so. When OPG state they expect profits to return to historical levels once coal prices normalize, that doesn’t take into account the fact that the domestic thermal coal market is about to be extremely abnormal, there never having been so much cheap domestic production for sale via e auction. And with further production increases targeted by the government over the medium term, prices are unlikely to increase. That looks in line with Goldbug’s hypothesis of supernormal profitability needed to expand capacity - probably mothballed plant (rather than greenfield thermal projects) or renewables.

[tim000] 04/8/2023 15:49

Note the recent slowdown in thermal coal demand is mostly down to the onset of the monsoon season; heavy rainfall reduces temperatures and hence household demand for air conditioning. The medium term outlook remains one of rapidly growing electricity demand and hence high industry PLFs.

[tim000] 04/8/2023 14:07

Thanks. Could be. All the public information has been pointing to a rapid decline in Indian thermal coal prices due to sluggish demand growth and a very large increase in CIL production. We just need some confirmation this has benefitted OPG too.

[dave4545] 04/8/2023 14:04

100k and 75k buys delayed and printed as sales as usual

Last week they were directors...same again ?

[tim000] 04/8/2023 14:01

Strange hike in the share price and spread on tiny buy volumes. Or were the 75k and 100k transactions both buys?
With luck there will be a quarterly bse release for Q2 later this month, followed by the annual results in September with some kind of trading update. Cashflow for the current half-year should be excellent as the large trade receivables balance in March unwinds. That’s despite the company paying off its £20mn NCD.

[iamthemagnificent] 01/8/2023 08:34

dave - agreed - let me know your thoughts per pm

[dave4545] 31/7/2023 19:52

iam

Never even noticed it. It used to stick out clearly in RED but now just blends in with the rest of the page.

[tim000] 31/7/2023 16:53

The National Coal Index for June was published today, go to the Nominated Authority section of the Coal Ministry website for the full release. June saw a further decline in prices. For example, medium grade non-coking coal (weighted average price of all market sales of domestic and imported coal) declined 10% between April and June.

[iamthemagnificent] 31/7/2023 11:20

dave-have sent you a pm re: other stock could you have a look ?