Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 14/6/2023 09:22

That’s the key question. The bse FY accounts show cost of materials of ca £80mn in FY23. Halve that in FY24 and it shows the potential profit boost. Of course, power unit prices will also be affected by lower costs, the extent is difficult to say. The general point that has been made here before is that a highly leveraged/low-profit/ capital-intensive industry needs a sustained period of high margins to incentivise investment in new capacity - vital for a fast-growing economy. OPG is really cheap on a 5-10 year outlook, and holders should be rewarded with a very high dividend yield at the current share price. Short-term traders can trade the share if they like, but it’s really a buy and hold investment where investors should look through short term factors, imho.

[dave4545] 14/6/2023 08:47

Righty I get that Tim.

Do you think the Coal price drops though can offset this to a degree ?

[tim000] 14/6/2023 08:27

Your analysis on LSE doesn’t work for Q1; if we’re correct that the bse figures exclude other income from coal trading, we shouldn’t expect the group to have made profits in Q1 similar to earlier periods, when OPG cut production and sold surplus coal at a profit due to then high prices. Obviously in Q1, production was high and there is unlikely to have been any coal trading.

[tim000] 14/6/2023 08:18

Dave, my understanding is that the bse accounts are in lakhs, roughly equivalent to £000s. The bse accounts for the OPG subsidiary show revenue of ca £44mn in Q1, and PBT of about £800k. Obviously we don’t have access to the consolidated accounts of the whole group, which Florence believes might include coal trading operations. PBT post-Q1 should be much higher due to the sharp fall in coal prices. And cashflow in Q1 was much higher than PBT due to a non-cash charge of nearly £3mn in the P/L accounts for depreciation etc.

[nathandc] 13/6/2023 13:41

Short term uplift will be great to see on resultsThe value is longer term stable revenue and attractive margins The volatility in coal prices and PLF is/has going to significantly improve ...12 months of stable predictable returns will demonstrate the real value ...Day to day trading is negligible ...

[dave4545] 13/6/2023 10:13

What ever you do OPG do not announce profits of at least £14 mil price will tank

Announce losses of £14 million then your shares will rise 142% like Lend has done this morning.

Remember the good old days where people piled into stocks making profits !

[tim000] 13/6/2023 08:27

As I understand it, Tangedco will buy surplus power generation from OPG at a price above cost, and distribute it via the grid to the market. At current coal prices however, OPG should be able to operate normally and sell to its existing customer base. But there is nothing wrong with maximizing output (given the marginal output sold to Tangedco is profitable), as it spreads fixed costs over a larger base. The trouble is, this is guesswork; we need the company to tell us how it’s performing.

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 22:20

Gotta have a trading update sooner rather than later

[tim000] 12/6/2023 21:01

PLF of 75% is about average

[tim000] 12/6/2023 20:57

This is the best report I've seen in terms of detail

hxxps://www.outlookindia.com/business/power-ministry-asks-all-thermal-plants-using-imported-coal-to-operate-with-full-capacity-during-summer-news-264181

[dave4545] 12/6/2023 20:04

I just think it's this market, no matter how good the story people are selling up
and I'm hoping they are making a massive mistake here in OPG.

I wonder if people selling are aware of all the "inside" info they put out on the BSE it would be interesting but impossible to know.

I mean I do not care how bad the markets are if a company I'm invested it could make £20 mil PBT maybe a lot more and is only valued at £35 million.

Patience needed or better still RNS needed

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 19:50

Does anyone know what PLF could be?Must be high 60% atleast

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 19:39

45 quid a ton holy moly

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 19:37

Tarriff will surely be extended too

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 19:36

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bqprime.com/amp/business/government-extends-coal-import-deadline-for-plants-till-sept-30

[tim000] 12/6/2023 18:54

Any info at all on prices?

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 17:04

Everywhere reporting weak coal pricesWish we'd announce something feels like a year Hopefully a record profit year if the tarrif is still accepted at 8

[bubbabubbabubba] 12/6/2023 17:01

Thungela reporting weak coal prices

[dave4545] 12/6/2023 11:08

1300 traded lol what a market, perhaps everybody is out sunbathing, too nice weather to sit and watch paint dry with penny stocks atm.

9.185-9.534p online

3 v 1 on L2

ZZZZ

[tim000] 11/6/2023 11:57

The temporary power generation law runs from mid-March to mid-June apparently.

[tim000] 09/6/2023 19:07

I’m not sure it’s been mentioned, the government passed a law such that from March, private generators importing coal were legally bound to maximize electricity generation to avoid power cuts during peak demand. I haven’t seen anything on how long this lasts, nor on pricing. This helps to explain why revenues grew so strongly in Q1, which should be even stronger in Q2. So good news that Indonesian coal prices have continued to fall sharply.

[tim000] 09/6/2023 18:39

New release, but just confirming that the £20mn NCD has been fully redeemed. The FY 2023 H1 results published in December showed a further £7-8mn of debt is due for repayment by end-September 2023. Outstanding debt will then be only £13mn, of which about £5.5mn is due for repayment by next June. So negligible debt is not far away. With almost no non-discretionary payments due out of operating profits, a dividend can be safely reinstated.

[dave4545] 09/6/2023 16:25

This is new I think

[dave4545] 09/6/2023 09:56

online bid up this morning now 9.315p from 9.18p maybe a delayed buy to show.

10p seems to be the resistance level for me, break that then maybe it can go but of course a update from the company would be the real catalyst

[dave4545] 08/6/2023 18:31

300k delayed buy from yesterday, well it looks that way at 9.5p.