Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[lizardman_] 13/6/2018 20:03

hxxps://www.amegroup.com/Website/CommodityFocusDetail.aspx?faCommId=8

[dave4545] 13/6/2018 16:20

Amazing response as in virtually no trade.

I remember the day when one fund buying would trigger a buying frenzy and now we have 2 of them buying.

Perhaps when the word spreads tomorrow will be better.

[ali47fish] 13/6/2018 16:13

so why are these managers buying apart from some good news recently-will this recover?

[andycapp1] 13/6/2018 15:28

Nope same one. Look I’m not really doom and gloom, more realistic given this thing’s history!!

[dave4545] 13/6/2018 14:27

hello...Prudential plc and River and Mercantile Asset Management LLP have both bought a lot of stock.

Was expecting one buyer and one seller rns there

[john09] 13/6/2018 13:20

I’m in profit, won’t be many holders who can say that lol

[dave4545] 13/6/2018 13:15

18.64p offer looking very good now

Is there two andicapps on here, one posting doom and gloom and the other all positive ??

[andycapp1] 13/6/2018 12:51

Bought a few more this am. I keep convincing myself I'm right but the overhang needs to properly clear - and it hasn't yet - and then they need to get out with a better presentation. The new FD seems to be making a difference. The old one was terrible and actually I think was somewhat responsible for the mess at Gujarat re captive plant status.

[andycapp1] 13/6/2018 12:10

Goldy, an excellent summary. I have nothing to add! I think TN is worth a little more - I'd attribute 6-7x EBITDA - but think the basket case is about right. But completely concur with coal outturn and I think Chinese policy will cause coal to fall.

[john09] 13/6/2018 11:34

Yes W. A known charting formation

[jailbird] 13/6/2018 11:31

W.... lolshow me the chart (period)

[john09] 13/6/2018 11:20

Nice W on the bounce from low.

[dave4545] 13/6/2018 10:42

Well it's certainly going to move very soon judging at those nice buys at 18p

Bit overdue

[the original goldbug] 13/6/2018 10:41

The investment thesis is actually quite simple.

Tamil Nadu has payed off half of the debt. It will allegedly produce £40m of EBITDA, so you can say the equity value is approx 25-30p for that part of the business.

Solar is worth 5-7p maybe?

Gujarat is a basket case, for all sorts of reasons, many of them beyond the control of the management. It’s twchnically in default. Cash flows from TN have historically gone to support the interest payments. They have stopped that as the debt is non-recourse. Something will be worked out with the banks. The whole industry is haemorrhaging cash and bad debts are being piled up in the public sector banks up and down the country. Something will give soon. For the purpose of this discussion I would say the optionality value of Gujarat is 8p.

So I get to 40p on quite conservative numbers.

Coal at 30 and Gujarat comes good immediately.

It’s been a diabolical investment for me. I own too many shares, but my mistakes are my mistakes not Arvind Gupta’s. I’ll own them and sit with this and wait for some value to accrue.

[chalky] 13/6/2018 10:11

i think a strategic review of gujarat, which has a weird way of collecting monies due, could result in its sale.5% of this plant has already been sold,i think they will monitor progress at gujarat and also look at what returns they get from solar power,if its pretty good then i can see an expansion into solar and a gradual wind down of gujarat which will reduce the impact of coal prices.i think there will be more of an energy mix and no more thermal plants built unless a cheap thermal situation occurs in the future through a takeover but at the momment this will not happen due to the need of a debt reduction which could happen through the sale of gujarat.

[andycapp1] 13/6/2018 09:41

Eh! Well what’s your investment thesis on this then? Why do you think it is good value?

[dave4545] 13/6/2018 09:08

andy still does voluntary work for the samaritans !

[opodio] 13/6/2018 08:32

Buys coming in , ready to shoot up

[andycapp1] 13/6/2018 07:57

Look this is not going to take off, to use the phrase, until Gujarat is sorted. Chennai is the jewel and that is fine. Chennai is probably worth north of 50p alone and Gujarat has option value. But they need to deal with that, captured plant status then the banks before this thing is stabilised and can make progress. For now it might go up a bit more but certainly not to 40p!!

[dave4545] 12/6/2018 13:26

Bidding ok now, earlier nothing, not take much more buying to clear 18p

[onjohn] 12/6/2018 09:27

Swiftly to 40p

[john09] 12/6/2018 09:26

17.75p mid. Nice. Here we go

[dave4545] 12/6/2018 09:07

17.9p offer now so overhang cleared, be nice if it can kick on towards 20p again