Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[judijudi] 10/12/2020 12:26

m5,
Keeping the lid on the share price is what also surprises me
Especially when he replied last night in answer to a question about the current disappointing share price what a great run we have had (or words to that effect) from the low single figures to 23p ish in well under a year

[c0lin1] 10/12/2020 12:19

has anyone got a link to the presentation last night?

[pogue] 10/12/2020 12:16

Pierre
I took the numbers from what CF said last night I did not look for profits as I am looking at revenue as that is the factor used in the sector for rating. As I said another company in the US, Quotient, is rated higher than us with no profits.

Stated last night
study takes 2 to 4 months
8 beds per study
cost of study £4 million plus
so 3 months average per study, so 12 per annum in 24 bed facility at at least £4 million a pop. 12 x 4= 48.
He has said previously the clinic maxes out at £50 to 60 million p/a but not last night so I took the conservative approach as I want to be sure what the lowest revenue is.

The number of CV19 studies appears to be 12 at £8 to 10 million but I really need to hear him again on that as apparently we have 6 this year and 6 next, if that is contract wins how does he know how many we will win next year, if actual studies he is going to have to move some to do them in December. either way that's another £100 million or so mind you I have no idea where they will be done.

Edit 1gw
didnt remember that quote well recorded, so £48 million is ball park there have been price increases recently though

Another Edit
presentation from last night stated
'There is a possibility we could sign 6 Covid studies this year and a further 6 next year'
So could be some interesting RNSs coming our way soon......

[1gw] 10/12/2020 12:10

Pierre - according to my notes of the 29th Oct Proactive session, CF said that the QM maxed out at about £45m and he could add another £30m-£40m for the 2nd facility, which he rounded (down) to potential capacity of £70-80m for the 2 facilities.

[m5] 10/12/2020 11:59

pogue10 Dec '20 - 11:56 - 9247 of 9248

I think that would probably be a reasonable solution.

[pierre oreilly] 10/12/2020 11:58

Plas, istr orph pays a 25% bonus to a couple of directors - no big deal on 140k euros. One director (not c) gets pension contributions paid.

[pierre oreilly] 10/12/2020 11:56

P re your analysis. There are somethings which are difficult to know - for example, how may vaccines are tested in 1 challenge study, how long is a 'slot' (the gov have 3 booked, but what does that mean?) etrc etc.

A good starting point for analysis i think id the definite uncontradicted statement from c that the qm facility maxes out at 50/60m. From that, we can see there are 10ish non-covid challenge studies (at 5/6m each) at qm. I'd guess at 25% net on those contracts, giving a pa profit of 600k per study or 14/15m pa at qm.

Allowing for less beds but higher margin and less costs i'd think the same order of magnitude profit at rf - another 14/15m making 28mpa overall for challenge studies.

I think it's safe to add on a very conservative #10mpa profit for each new 20/25 bed clinic c gets his hands on ...very roughly, but gives an idea.

So very conservative #28m profit with 2 clinics, #38m with 3 and #48m with 4.

p/e 20 would be conservative imv, giving mc of a half bill as we are atm, rising to one bill with 4 clinics.

All rougf and ready, but i think you have to value on profits rather than t/o now we are making profits.

That;s just the core business, ignoring all the other stuff.

[pogue] 10/12/2020 11:56

m5
maybe but then he has stated he wants it to rise slowly as a meteoric rise usually proceeds a fall and he is trying to court institutions who will be looking for a stable long term growth company in this sector. To please everyone he should stop mentioning the share price completely and just fend off of questions on where its going.

[m5] 10/12/2020 11:51

I agree Pogue, and that's fair enough, and I think you are probably correct, but this constant reference to the share price not getting ahead of itself, it's every presentation, is now, I believe, having a negative effect. I agree with Talkman2.

[pogue] 10/12/2020 11:30

CF was criticized for being too positive, may have had a quiet word given to him he is being more reserved since. Cant please everyone. If you listen to earlier presentations he was so excited and positive it was unbelievable, I believe he still feels the same but has perfected the calmer more sober delivery.

[talkman2] 10/12/2020 10:41

I don’t think it helps when CF says he’s trying to put a lid on the share price This is not positive and he needs to stop saying this . Let the share price find its own level,and if people sell,so be it . He should be be saying we are currently significantly undervalued . He’s a great CEO but this is a real negative in his presentations.

[m5] 10/12/2020 09:38

troutisout10 Dec '20 - 08:53 - 9236 of 9239

Have to say you have a somewhat condescending manner which is unfortunate. I was showing some frustration this morning, sorry about that. You don't need to tell me about making a judgement based on the first 45 minutes, if you read any of my posts you will see its all about the EOD price and price action for me. It actually was not just about this morning, as I say I was venting off. I have been a shareholder for a while so there we go. We are up 0.5p, I will wait for 4.30 before getting the bunting out.

I remain extremely confident about my investment here, share price frustration apart. I will also be adding, but will wait for the confirmation I need to do so.

Do I know you from the Hur board as I seems to recognise the style? Anyway we move on.

[judijudi] 10/12/2020 09:31

Miss the boat 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️
Do some research 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️
I’m balls deep!!

[troutisout] 10/12/2020 09:30

judijudi,
If you want to wait until profits are confirmed, you will miss the boat. For a risk averse investor that might be fine, but if you want to make money by getting in before the confirmation, then you have to do some research and look at the clues.

[judijudi] 10/12/2020 09:22

As I was saying a few days ago revenue is great
Contract wins are fantastic
But profit is what really matters
Still extremely happy with my investment

[pogue] 10/12/2020 09:18

m5
to me we are ludicrously undervalued and considering a competitor in the US is losing money and is valued 3 times, IIRC, higher than us I can only assume the UK market is waiting on a sign from somewhere, maybe God, that this is a viable company.
I had a look at SGS, the Swiss bunch with the Belgian clinic we are going to rent. They are very diversified across many industries not just pharma however they are rated at 3.6 revenue but with revenues of over $6 billion and MC of $22 billion we clearly have a large space to grow into lol. Mind you if they wanted to buy us out they could do it from petty cash.

[pogue] 10/12/2020 09:02

1gw
I have been of the opinion for a while that we were going to the NASDAQ with FLu V and last night CF seemed to prefer that option however he did talk of getting the best price for it and not taking the first offer, again I need to listen to it again, but he seemed to contradict things and I was not 100% certain we were off to America.

The wearables seem now confirmed upfront license payment then payments for access, yearly or monthly who knows that bit was not mentioned but is irrelevant cash is coming and a regular income as well.

[troutisout] 10/12/2020 08:53

m5,
Three things,
1, The whole market didn't watch the presentation last night, mainly viewed by current shareholders.
2, The market won't look at the presentation until they see a move in the price which gets them interested to look at the Company.
3, MMs will try and control this as much as possible and with commentary like your own above, it seems they are winning.

To take the first 45 minutes of trading and try and make a judgement isn't sensible, we didn't have an RNS released, there was a presentation watched by only a few people, many of which are already full up (and judging by remarks by some, just waiting for a spike to sell into). I bought two more lot this morning both delayed reporting and I sense there will be plenty more, but don't expect the market to notice until the price moves, that gives us the opportunity to get more first....

[m5] 10/12/2020 08:38

pogue, I think their is enough tangible information out there with contract wins etc to justify a much higher share price than we have. The market as we know is always looking forward. Take a look at SENS, medical data business, market cap same as ours a little more. Turned over 2 million last FY, operating loss 22m and have just raised £28m at 90p.

Here we are profitable and chucking £1m a month into the Bank, looking at getting a third and forth facility, very busy going forward and stuck in neutral.

I see we have a bit more interest now. It certainly deserves it.

[1gw] 10/12/2020 08:38

Personally I thought he came across as a bit more subdued yesterday - maybe even feeling a bit battered by shareholder (bulletin board?) criticism. Some of the questions put to him were quite negative in tone.

I think we got quite a bit of clarity on Imutex (likely to be a reverse, not a cash disposal) and wearables (multiple licenses rather than an exclusive deal), which I took to mean that scoping work / negotiations on both had progressed to the extent that the landing zone was becoming clearer. He was a lot less clear on use of and revenue from the clinics (QM, RF, #3), but given what he has said in the past it seemed to me that he hadn't really changed the story - QM full until the end of next year; RF available to him for other work after the government studies (but those studies might fill it for quite some time); #3 to be available with limited up-front commitment (12 month break clause) and to be signed up pretty much simultaneously with contracts with pharma companies to use it.

So all looked very good to me. Overriding impression is perhaps that just like many of us, he is really looking forward to a Christmas break this year!

[pogue] 10/12/2020 08:25

m5
I think they want to see numbers, there are no accounts with the company in profit and everything we know is what he tells us, which is difficult to follow most of the time as we only get half the story. The start of the contract wins on the wearables will get people counting their fingers and toes and should move us on, I hope.

[m5] 10/12/2020 08:19

Probably as well CF is winding down the presentations. Not much interest this morning. I cant quite understand the market reaction. He has delivered on everything, ok we have delays with the Imutex sale, but I can live with that because it will deliver more value. Last might once again very positive. Its now as though the market does not believe what is going on. Totally perplexed.

[adorling] 10/12/2020 08:18

I liked Cathal’s update that they will issue multiple licences to potential wearable partners and receive ongoing royalties dependent on access use from the health database. That will bring in significant revenue streams and provide regular news flow. Also the mention of a 3rd and even 4th Vaccine Challenge Centers tells everyone how much this great Company is growing.

[judijudi] 10/12/2020 08:13

Well if it drops much more I will be rooting around the sofa for some top up loot
Hope I don’t get that opportunity though