Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 08/12/2020 11:13

40m quid gov contracts. That's a number isn't it?

That alone should support a much higher price than the current price.

[discojames] 08/12/2020 11:11

I assume you mean "more than the market cap", Lazarus(?)

[pierre oreilly] 08/12/2020 11:10

Laz - fully agree, the whole situation is pretty unbelievable really. Nowt stranger than the stock market.

[pierre oreilly] 08/12/2020 11:04

9093 ext, final sentence on informing the who

The who did something similar a few years ago. It's important to realise it's an advisory for member states to consider in their decision making process on whether to allow challenge studies in their country. Many don't. The Uk does, and has done for at least 80 years, and is quite adventurous in this area compared to most. S Ireland for example doesn't allow them iirc. The ethics the who considers is the use of a placebo, then an infective agent ... many don't see that as ethical but the uk is fine with it, The who has no say at all in whether the uk conducts more challenge studies - obviously, since our gov has signed 40m quids wortth on contracts with hvivo to do just that. In my opinion - the uk ethics committee is a bit misnamed since i think it will only consider the practicalities of doing covid challenge studies, i.e. checking the procedure and the model, including the infective agent derived from covid, and the dosing, the recovery procedure etc ... basically authorising the use of the model the government is paying hvivo to develop in the challenge studies, and probably specifying at that time the actual vaccines being tested (2 or 3 in each challenge study iirc, to see which gives the best protection).

(If anyone likes useless facts, my wife was one of the pas to the who dg a few decades ago when i met her).

[pogue] 08/12/2020 11:00

Lazarus
its the waiting for news that makes sellers, they have not done research and perhaps bought in for expected spike on news which has not arrived yet and small moves down maybe large for them if they bought recently. I have few companies waiting for news and the prices are moving about a bit, all we can do is sit and wait...

[lazarus2010] 08/12/2020 10:52

THIS IS ACTUALLY QUITE MAD AND FRUSTRATING!!

CH has spelled it out very clearly that there is going to be dividends paid out following deals for Imutex and/or Data. The size of these potential deals has been flagged up as potentially more than the capex of the company.

OPRH are winning contract after contract, literally minimum of one big client per month.

There are no non-payment issues as payments are made up front so it's a cashflow +ve business model.

The company is very lean with few high earning execs.

The top management have big stakes in the company.

They have signed contracts worth £40mln with UK govt who are pushing CHIMs for the future Covids yet to come

They have signed new contracts and repeat contracts with top 10 pharma companies.

They have a dispersed business across Europe and potentially going global if US and China open up. This reduces risk of any single location putting the whole business out of action for whatever reason.

They are talking with the top 10 wearable devices manufacturers about licensing the data.

Global fear over this virus and all the other known viruses such as Zika, Ebola, Malaria etc is now top of the agenda for health risk to the entire global population and serious cash is being thrown at it to find preventative solutions.

Not sure anybody could identify a risk to their business case apart from gradual entry to market by other major players, and that will be very gradual as they need to recruit experts, probably train them, build or lease suitable premsises, convert, adapt and commission before starting any actual study!

and people/insti's keep on selling!!

[m5] 08/12/2020 10:50

You win some you lose some Pogue, nature of the beast.

[pogue] 08/12/2020 10:46

Private Frazer tells it as it is

[m5] 08/12/2020 10:44

Looks like CF's presentation is going to be a very downbeat affair then. Business is poor and contracts drying up. Who would have have guessed it. Oh well.

[extrader] 08/12/2020 09:52

Hi Trader_3,

Thanks to you and Sportstrader.
In extenso , the key HC bit :

.."Thank for this ! The key bit, in extenso :

.."Establishment of the world’s first Human Challenge Model for SARS-CoV-2
Just as the government has invested in flexible manufacturing capability to increase capacity, it has also invested in developing new clinical trial capability to accelerate vaccine development and advance mechanistic understanding of viral controlled infection through the Human Challenge Programme. The VTF has made it a key priority to get human challenge studies up and running for the controlled testing of new vaccines, where young healthy subjects receive the vaccine prior to being infected by the virus.

UK Vaccine Taskforce 2020 Achievements and Future Strategy

In October, the VTF created and recommended funding of the first phase of a Human
Challenge Programme as a partnership between Imperial College London (trial sponsor), the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), hVIVO, a leading clinical company with expertise in viral human challenge models, and the Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust. This complex £33m programme required multiple arrangements to ensure the integration of the required technical expertise under the leadership of the VTF, working with other government departments such as DHSC and organisations such as the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Health Research Agency (HRA), Health and Safety Executive and
MHRA.

In addition to running large placebo-controlled efficacy studies it is important to gain information about the coronavirus as we go forward. We do not yet know enough about the behaviour of the virus and the impact it has in different populations.

Human challenge studies in flu revealed critical information and data about the infectivity of subjects prior to their showing symptoms and this was only discovered through the tightly controlled human challenge studies. Such studies could help define the immunopathogenesis of COVID-19, duration of vaccine-induced immunity and correlates of protection in healthy populations.

Once the SARS-CoV-2 Human Challenge model has been established [NB ] in early 2021, the VTF has secured the first three slots to run clinical trials on the most promising new vaccines ahead of everyone else. Critically this provides optionality for the UK. The model can be used as a ‘fast to fail’ approach to select the most promising vaccines faster and optimising investment.

"Regardless of whether the first wave of vaccines are successfully licensed, follow on vaccines are likely to be needed (whether for heterologous boosting or to address supply challenges, cost of goods, mutations, sub populations, duration, reinfection etc.) If disease transmission rates are low, the only way that next the wave of vaccines could be ‘immuno-bridged’ to first generation licensed vaccines quickly will be through human challenge studies. The option for large-scale field efficacy studies simply may not exist. Building this world leading, ambitious
capability now will enable the UK to optimise and prioritise future pandemic vaccines, generating long term value and pandemic preparedness for the UK for SARS-CoV-2 and beyond - a valuable legacy for the UK. ..."

Some kind person should forward this bit to the WHO, which it seems is still'debating/making the case for' Human Challenge Studies.
hxxps://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/who-officials-to-hold-a-meeting-to-discuss-feasibility-of-human-challenge-trials.html

HTH and ATB

[trader_3] 08/12/2020 09:24

UK Gov Vaccine Testing Strategy & CHIMs

Credit to Sportstrader @LSE for finding this doc.

The document states that:

‘Building this world leading, ambitious capability now will enable the UK to optimise and prioritise future pandemic vaccines, generating long term value and pandemic preparedness for the UK for SARS-CoV-2 and beyond - a valuable legacy for the UK.’



This again confirms CHIM’s as a central part of the UK Gov’s strategy, for testing vaccines both now and into the future.

Growing from a very small CRO from only a few months ago, it’s an amazing achievement by ORPH to be in this position. They are working with some of the top UK scientists and are clearly a key element, in a national vaccine testing strategy going forward.

[molatovkid] 08/12/2020 09:16

If anything, they are struggling to keep it up. Seems to be a decent supply of sells and Level 2 is 1 vs 3.


I have total faith that this company is heading places....that much I am sure of. When the share price starts reflecting it, is anyone's guess.

Orphan is not a trading share....buy. hold and wait.

[judijudi] 08/12/2020 08:30

Doesn’t to me
Not yet anyway

[skasher094] 08/12/2020 08:15

Feels like they are struggling to keep this down

[lhoskins] 07/12/2020 21:22

I'm sure CF will have something up his sleeve for the presentation Wednesday. I'm convinced he cancelled the LSE presentation last week so he could work on and finalise something big ready for this weeks presentation. I'm hoping for a big RNS this week for wearables or 3rd facility. They can't be far away. The suspense is killing me.

[lako42] 07/12/2020 21:15

Just to be clear I wasn't moaning and am holding long.

However, intraday moaning is one thing but complete lack of reaction to news is another. As I say, I am it it for the long haul but I am disappointed at the level of the share price today based on where we have been.

I'm expecting much more significant upside.

[lhoskins] 07/12/2020 20:09

100%. For long term holders intraday movements are neither here nor there. The big money will come by sitting on your hands. Its not a matter of if the share price multibags but when. Big 6 months ahead. Although I can't help reading the boards and checking the charts almost hourly for ORPH lol

[orphan1] 07/12/2020 19:45

Our day is nearly here, big news on its way

[m5] 07/12/2020 17:12

Well said.

[troutisout] 07/12/2020 17:02

Not sure whether moaning is compulsory here, but the share price has closed blue.
So please excuse me not joining in, we should all welcome decent RNSs like today.
The day to day trading and especially on RNS days has followed a pattern, we know the pattern, so why not take advantage of it?
I managed a rollover in the market that didn't cost a penny and banked a profit from the initial trade, also added a couple more times this afternoon as the price was dropped before the rise into close.
A good day and leaves me awaiting the big RNSs news

[hotteruk6] 07/12/2020 16:43

I added more today.....

[lhoskins] 07/12/2020 16:09

CF said it will not be too long before wearables deal is announced. It has been 8 weeks now and he said it is a multi multi million pound deal. 10 of the top wearable companies x £10 million = £100million revenue. Anyone selling now will be kicking themselves when this deal is announced.

[lako42] 07/12/2020 16:09

Another ridiculous day in the life of Orph.