Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[malcolmmm] 06/12/2020 11:00

Techinvest says BUY. They also say that they like companies that are well positioned to build out from a strong defendable base and that Open Orphan falls into this category

[extrader] 05/12/2020 14:42

Hi Nickthesaint,

Thanks for this !

Could you clarify ..."The early indications are that of those in vaccine group 5-10% caught Covid versus those in placebo group..."

ie are you saying that the vaccine appears to confer 90-95% immunity?

TIA and ATB

[little minx] 05/12/2020 12:14

hVIVO gets a mention in thishttps://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/covid-19-vaccine-oxford-update-pfizer-moderna-when-uk-coronavirus-priority/amp/

[nickthe saint] 04/12/2020 21:09

Evening all,

not wishing to be too scientific but my wife (who is nationally acclaimed in the in the Pharma/Treatment Products arena) and I were just reviewing the unpublished trial results of a couple of the Covid Vaccines (mainly Pfizer and Moderna ones).

They certainly are far from robust.

Basic approach is take 100,000 (cant remember exact number) patients in March 2020 and inject half with vaccine and half with placebo. (Pfizer's was not stratified incidentally). Take Nasal and pharyngeal swabs at the start of course.

Then do phone reviews at 7 days 29 days 12 weeks 6 months all the way up to 2 years (ie the final results cant be fully known for a further 18 months) to ask if patients have symptoms in a few different Covid Typical categories eg "Have you had a cough, have you a loss of taste" etc etc.

Then apply the patient feedback into the model to attribute indicative results.

All patients were told to carry on with their lives as normal. Of course normal for them was the same normal as for us - i.e. 4 weeks in late March/Early April for UK patients would have meant lockdown. Restrictions on mass gatherings would have applied, face masks, hand washing regimes, bubbles etc to all patients in the trial.

The early indications are that of those in vaccine group 5-10% caught Covid versus those in placebo group.

As far as my initial review of the BMJ is concerned it isn't even clear if further swabs were taken to confirm the patient reported symptoms.

In fairness I have only skim read it but it does not inspire me with confidence at this stage. Trust me, whilst I have some knowledge, I wont be being asked to Peer Review the results. However the results have not yet been published for Peer review and as such it is very early days to draw very firm conclusions.

Not sure if it was done at all, but the Mink with Covid would have been a good place to start with proof of concept prior to any challenge studies but challenge studies are the only full way of proving up that the vaccine prevents disease in controlled settings.

Most drug development processes would go through this animal testing process as part of the 10 year development process. Time does not allow that prior to starting these single blind randomised trials.

Whilst immoral not to report early positive findings from covid vaccine trials, it is very early in the process and is less robust than it will be further down the line.

Plus bear in mind the 95% success rate figures are with people taking all the various precautions that we do day in and day out. If people behaved as they would have done under 2019 normal conditions then the success rate could only be significantly lower.

Don't worry, this is not my normal Friday night activity of choice. I'd rather be in the Pub drinking Guinness.

Enjoy the weekend.

Regards

NTS

[trader_3] 04/12/2020 19:58

hVIVO, UK Gov BEIS Vaccine Task Force & Royal Free - Covid CHIM meeting



Credit to Eskers retweet @ twitter

Seem’s like the Covid CHIM process is starting to move into gear!

GLA LTH's

[listener1] 04/12/2020 19:53

Thankyou for your replies. Re Brexit... 2 possibles imo.. 1. Stock market crash affecting all shares.. obviously not good for Orph. 2. Orph imo an obvious 'safe haven' regardless...

[nickthe saint] 04/12/2020 19:17

Pierre,

thanks for the thumbs up.

I agree that the cost shouldnt be £300Bn but the Govt now has borrowed £300Bn and will need to recoup that money. I agree that the real costs should be less but the Govt can save spending £300Bn next time by spending £10Bn pa for the next 20-30 years and with significantly better health outcomes for the next Pandemic outbreak which will happen in the next 20 years.

When it comes to the speed of testing the vaccine products, I don't have a strong opinion as to whether they have been sufficiently tested or not. I won't be having when, I'm pretty sure about that.

Brexit impact listener1? I havent got a clue mate.

Regards

NTS

[pogue] 04/12/2020 19:12

listener
I dont think Brexit will do anything to ORPH we are looking at moving into a Belgian clinic soon hopefully and no mention of any problems were mentioned there. Probably more paperwork but thats it.

[listener1] 04/12/2020 17:38

May I say how much I enjoy reading the posts of you guys, especially our regular contributors. I particularly enjoy Orph being challenged and constructive replies. Apologies my earlier point was not clear.. imo we need to maintain vigilance when buying our lottery tickets. I am sure Govts will continue to spend big on vaccines and thus I remain invested. However listening to the Wildfire discussion, I got the distinct impression the scientific community had come up trumps in terms of the preparedness for the pandemic and have accelerated existing potential remedies to gain approval. With better political leadership and adherence to rules like in NZ and Norway we might well have 'coped' so much better and not needed to spend billions now or in the future. Therefore, beware strong governance and leadership! (Fat chance) Staying mildly political, I anticipate Brexit deal/no deal being bad news short term for the UK do you guys think shares will be impacted and to what extent? Would Orph (excuse the pun) be immune to any shock to the system?

[extrader] 04/12/2020 17:24

Hi all,

Well, they're getting prepared... a £ 1.5m AI emergency contract....

506291-2020


.."The MHRA urgently seeks an Artificial Intelligence (AI) software tool to process the expected high volume of Covid-19 vaccine Adverse Drug Reaction (ADRs) and ensure that no details from the ADRs’ reaction text are missed." followed by :

Reason for lack of prior notice of tender :

"For reasons of extreme urgency under Regulation 32(2)(c) related to the release of a Covid-19 vaccine MHRA have accelerated the sourcing and implementation of a vaccine specific AI tool.
Strictly necessary — it is not possible to retrofit the MHRA’s legacy systems to handle the volume of ADRs that will be generated by a Covid-19 vaccine. Therefore, if the MHRA does not implement the AI tool, it will be unable to process these ADRs effectively. This will hinder its ability to rapidly identify any potential safety issues with the Covid-19 vaccine and represents a direct threat to patient life and public health.
Reasons of extreme urgency — the MHRA recognises that its planned procurement process for the SafetyConnect programme, including the AI tool, would not have concluded by vaccine launch. Leading to an inability to effectively monitor adverse reactions to a Covid-19 vaccine.
Events unforeseeable — the Covid-19 crisis is novel and developments in the search of a Covid-19 vaccine have not followed any predictable pattern so far..."

Good luck all - I think we might need it ;-<<br /> ATB

[pierre oreilly] 04/12/2020 14:44

Nick, great post. Yeah, i can imagine a few going into the corner shop and asking why the hell they're selling lottery tickets and not even giving a guarantee that the ones they sell are going to win the #20m.

One point slightly o/t where we disagree is the cost of covid being #300bn. I'd say the cost of covid itself is much less than that, with the majority of the #300bn cost being due to the government responses to the virus. I can't help thinking that had the government just isolated the vulnerable who face serious illness or death and let those who'd likely just get mild or no symptoms just carry on as normal, the cost would have been much less (in overall deaths, which include collateral indirect deaths, as well as the economic cost).

ps, agree about tsla - wouldn't surprise me if the occasional posters telling us there are no guarantees and no profits have been reported yet are up to their necks in Tesla!

No scientific papers to support my view and i'm not any expert in the area, but i still do have an opinion, before yump asks.

[listener1] 04/12/2020 14:10

Listening to the Wildfire interview posted by Trader 3. The lady from Bergen Norway did highlight the lack of political leadership and cited UK & USA. Therefore the 300bn spend by our Govt according to this thread could have been avoided to a large degree if Govts had used the scientific knowledge already available as Norway and New Zealand did. Indeed, listening to that discussion, the impression I got was the lessons learned from Spanish flu could/should have made a vast difference. Still invested as expect Govts to spend more cash "preparing" for next time...

[m5] 04/12/2020 12:52

Trader_34 Dec '20 - 11:44 - 8984 of 8987

Thank for that. As CF has said for 30 years vaccine testing has been the poor relation. Covid has brought the importance of testing to the fore. It will never be the same again as the consequences on various fronts are too severe. IMHO.

[nickthe saint] 04/12/2020 12:52

Morning All,

picking up on Pierre's theme of lottery tickets.

The price of a £20m winning lottery after all the facts are known is £20m, or probably more as more than one person will likely buy.

If there were not any risk in Investing (or indeed in life) there would be no return.

The £1 lottery ticket before the winning numbers are drawn is because there is a 1 in 14 million chance of the numbers coming up (based on original numbers 1 to 49 in a 6 ball draw).

No Posters on here ought to be saying anything is guaranteed (I don't recall anyone having done so from memory), because it is not, but the £1 lottery ticket becomes worth more than the nominal £1 spent, if you have done your research and found out that some balls are not going in the draw this week so long as you dont have them on your ticket.

This is what Investors should and do do. Research the background the contracts etc, make sensible assumptions and place a value. With luck, your assumptions and research will prove to be dependable and the lottery ticket is in higher demand.

It is without question that insufficnet work has been done for Pandemic Flu - that is simply from a logistics point of view - ie PPE supply failures, information and expertise gaps or ignorance. All this despite there being several significant Flu Epidemic outbreaks. I worked on Swine Flu 11 years ago but because it failed to have a large enough Global/National impact the research never ramped up.

Without question is also the fact that this Global Pandemic has cost UK alone at least £300Bn, just for the Government. Without a change in our preparedness, the next one will also cost circa at least £300Bn.

I expect this Government to commit probably £10Bn per annum to preventative research etc, whioh is only around 1-2% of NHS spend, but has a huge payback over the next 30 years then.

What is certain is the Open Orphan and its group of subsidiaries is ideally placed to take huge commercial advantage of this. It is in the right place at the right time dealing with real world, life changing problems.

Give me that over Space X any day of the week for my investments.

Regards to all,

NTS

[trader_3] 04/12/2020 11:44

Prof Robin Shattock - accelerating new vaccine technology



Cathal has previously described the future of ORPH linked to “entering a decade of exponential vaccine development".

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/update-upon-entering-a-decade-of-exponential-vaccine-development

More future vaccines for ‘HIV,TB,Malaria etc’ = more future vaccine testing for ORPH

[pierre oreilly] 04/12/2020 11:38

The core business is a stonking buy in my view (as i tried to illustrate earlier).

It comes with 2 or 3 free lottery tickets.

When or if those lottery tickets come good it'll be too late to buy and get the benefit from them, but you'll still get the benefit of the cheap core business.

If you find yourself looking for rnss everyday at 07:00 hoping the lottery tickets come good isn't probably a comfortable situation to be in.

Of course, every shareholder hopes that imutex is sold/rto tomorrow, and we'd all gain a lot if it were, but the timing of that is really impossible to predict. Same for wearables (except that's much better than a lottery ticket imv, and will be just as price changing is/when it happens.

But, i might as well add, nothing is certain and nothing is predictable accurately, it's all just opinion.

[m5] 04/12/2020 11:35

warranty4 Dec '20 - 10:52 - 8972 of 8976

I will always listen to the other side of the story, so to speak, but to be interested I want it backed up with considered research. I want someone to have taken the time to know what we are about, have some history of the business, and what it has achieved to date. Is that too much to ask? We all know there are no guarantees and I for one am at some pains to tell people to DTOR and manage their risk when I post.

If everything was guaranteed would we be at 23p? There lies the opportunity and why we are here. So you pays your money and takes your choice. There is enough information out there for anyone to DTOR and makes their own minds up without even referring to this BB.


Judijudi4 Dec '20 - 11:09 - 8976 of 8976

He has told us the timescales we are working to. You cant do these type of deals overnight, its still early December so we are still well within the timescales he mentioned. I would like to see the share price higher, I think we should be higher, and I think we will be aswell before the Christmas break. Just my opinion, no advice intended, manage your risk, etc.

[pogue] 04/12/2020 11:29

CF has said deals are imminent putting a date on when an agreement can be reached is fatal. I personally believe we will get something nice before Xmas judging on what has been said but who knows, what I do know is you will not be buying at this price when it does. Sit and wait is the only way to play this share in my view the prospective news flow is transformational speculating on when only raises worry levels.
DYOR, all in my opinion, not a recommendation to buy or sell

[extrader] 04/12/2020 11:29

Hi Judijudi,

With the timing of a lot of the possibilities outside his gift/control, it seems quite reasonable to me for CF to want to maintain an interview schedule that'll allow him an opportunity to elaborate fairly soon after any 'event'.

'asfitary' (TM) ;->

IMO
ATB

[malcolmmm] 04/12/2020 11:25

These big wearable companies have the clout and will try to negotiate a good deal for themselves so I expect it usually takes longer to come to a mutual agreement.