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[aleman] 09/1/2023 09:46

Some reporting finally catching up with reality:



UK household bills could start to fall from July, if market prices fall below the government’s annual £3,000 ($3,573) cap. The country’s businesses could feel the impact of lower wholesale prices sooner, when the government withdraws its support in April.

“As energy suppliers buy their gas and electricity in advance to fix some of their costs, wholesale price decreases are not immediately passed through to consumers,” Lausberg said.

“If the wholesale price remains low, consumers could profit from cheaper energy bills in a few months,” he added.

[aleman] 09/1/2023 09:19

Good morning. It's only 4C but it's lovely calm, dry morning with a little sun, feeling much warmer than 6C in a stiff breeze yesterday.

bamboo2 - ah... lots of sarcasm/humour/subtle comedy gets missed in print. I miss some in the rear world!


US Q4 reporting season starts with just a few small ones this week until a raft of financials on Friday. Financials usually benefit from higher rates but tend to blow up with provisions from other sectors if yield curves are inverted so they will be interesting to assess.

[bamboo2] 09/1/2023 08:43

Ale, an excellent point. I was being flippant!
Have a great day.

[aleman] 08/1/2023 23:29

About 60% of Thai power generation is from gas, about half of which goes on refrigeration and air conditioning.





Zacks earnings estimates show how rapidly US Q4 estimates have fallen - very similar to previous recessions. Recent rate hikes have not had time to have much effect yet so I'd expect deterioration to continue. (Oddly, there's some optimism from the commentary - Zack's tended to optimism ahead of the Great Financial Crash, if I remember rightly, a bit like estate agents and building society economists always tend to be optimisitic about house prices.)

[bamboo2] 08/1/2023 22:43

Ale, I guess they sidestep the rise in gas prices by making do without the heating?

"Daytime temperatures usually reach 32°C in Bangkok, Thailand in January with high heat and humidity, falling to 21°C at night."

[aleman] 08/1/2023 22:26

Thai inflation in H2/2022 was only 0.25% (0.5% annualised) - down from around 5.5% (11% annualised) in H1. Prices fell in November and December. The central bank raised rates 3 times in H2 (0.5% to 1.25%).

[aleman] 08/1/2023 19:15

Sunday roasts sold out at the pub we went to that does nice ones. We checked bookings for a couple of others nearby but there were no spaces for two hours. We gave up and ate in at a good fish and chip restaurant.


BBC news - UK breweries are closing at one per week due to high energy costs. It's only one side of the story though.

Quaffale - at least 68 breweries closed in 2022.



Quaffale - at least 48 new breweries opened in 2022.



And here's a map of around 2000 brewery locations



(Simplification alert:) There are probably too many breweries these days, most making identikit beers from mass wholesaled European barley and hops, using blended mains water (much not soft enough or artificially softened) without local character, but using weird additives, unusual packaging and marketing hype to try make them less average. Good ales from brewers with the character of locally grown ingredients and their own soft water are getting harder to find amongst the ever changing throng.

This is a nice one I had recently. (ADVFN erased the usual link, hence the space.)

h ttps://yorkshireheart.com/product/blackheart-stout/

[aleman] 08/1/2023 14:10

I like Wrexham because Parky was a great manager for us and their loyal fans have kept turning up in large numbers so they deserve success, but I hope the Magpies beat them to top spot as the money they have spent over and above gate revenues seems a bit unfair.

This morning, I travelled a long way to get frozen daft in the wind, watching No.3's team get beaten in a sloppy display, playing on a 4G pitch that the other team likely trained on when we were frozen off. (It's a grass league.) Worse was they would not let us watch on the edge of the pitch but made us watch outside the fencing and at the cold top of a bank where we could not communicate with them. When I got home at 1pm, hoping for something hot awaiting, I got to make lunch, too! It looks like the high is in at 6.5C.

I'm not making dinner as well so we'll be going out - if we can find somewhere with space. We went out for a birthday meet at the Spring's Puttstars near Leeds, yesterday and it was easily the busiest I've even seen it. Cars were parking illegally all over and blocking traffic since the large car park was full. This is a very odd recession.

[blueliner] 08/1/2023 11:37

Thanks wllm for keeping the stats going into 2023.

Nervy away win at the 'Shots' 0-3, puts Pies 5 points clear but Wrexham have 2 games in hand to overhaul us but have some fixture congestion that could work to our advantage.

[philanderer] 08/1/2023 11:36

It’s not just the NHS: health services are imploding all over Europe

Waiting times are surging, staff are leaving and patients are dying across the continent

[philanderer] 08/1/2023 11:32

Morning everyone.

Another filthy day here. Rain through the night and pouring down again now. No walk today.

I've watched four FA Cup ties live so far and another two coming up today :-)

Mystery Road BBC4 last night was very good. Caught it on BBC iplayer.

Roast beef and yorkshire pudding planned for this evening.

[dr biotech] 08/1/2023 10:17

Half the Watford team I’d never heard of. Nice to see some of the bigger clubs taking it more seriously though.

[kiwi2007] 08/1/2023 09:13

The "Terriers' also knocked out as usual in the 3rd round. I have to say though that there were some terrific games played..Wednsday..Wrexham...etc..very enjoyable.

[skinny] 08/1/2023 08:45

Good Morning.

Its finally stopped raining here, my grandson's first match of the year has just been cancelled - hardly surprising!

[dr biotech] 07/1/2023 18:43

I've never been out of the bottom two. Only been a year and a week. Small companies got off to an awful start last year, hopefully not so bad this time.

[carpingtris] 07/1/2023 17:00

Thanks for the update wllm 😀

Freddie - I've a FTSE 250 ETF tracker 'MIDD' so hoping it does play catch-up.

[freddie ferret] 07/1/2023 14:26

Comparing long term (back to '97) charts of the 250 and the 100 is interesting. The 100 is getting close to an all time record, the 250 has some catching up to do. As an investment over decades the 250 has outperformed, recently it has been a bit weak. I think the 100 taken overall probably pays a higher dividend yield than the 250?????

Gateside.

Growing frail with age is part of life, it is better to grow frail than die early.

[skinny] 07/1/2023 13:30

You may be able to read it by clicking on the first link here :-

[mrphil] 07/1/2023 12:54

Skinny, thanks for the link but I’m not subscribed so unfortunately can’t read it. I suspect it is the usual glass half full, anti-EV type of article which seem so common these days? I tend to just let them get on with it these days, and consider it their loss. I don’t intend changing mine any time soon, it does everything I need very effectively and happens to cost a pittance to run. It’s mostly charged at work and we’re currently paying 16p per kWh so that equates to around 5p per mile for a large high performance SUV.

Thanks for updating the chart wllm, glad to see we are all starting off in positive territory!

[aleman] 07/1/2023 11:27

Thanks, wllm.

Hope you get some quality time with your mum, Gateside.

I can't read that Times article but see it says something about a breakdown. That has reminded me of something. I've been seeing lots of broken down cars lately. Every journey I make of late, I see one. When I went to the quiz on Thursday, traffic was dead - easily the quietest journey I've had for a few years - and yet I passed 5 broken down cars in the dark around 9pm. This is well after the cold weather has passed and it was actually very warm. Our small car struggled to start last week after sitting a few days during a drizzly spell and it's been fine since, but it was also dry here Thursday evening. Are others seeing an oddly large number of breakdowns in their area? I'm wondering what it might be. Does this sticky new salt they put on roads clog dirty air filters or something daft like that?

Another thing I've noticed lately is cars limping along at about 35-40mph on dual carriageways and motorways. I don't think it's just cars economising on petrol. Loads of cars do 60mph now that used to 70mph. That seems normal. I tend to drive slightly under the speed limit now and it's ghard to do it in busy traffic. These odd very slow ones only seem to have appeared in the last several weeks. A few of them have been electric but some have been petrol. Is electric cars doing 40mph or less becasue batteries are getting low going to become a common sight? Is there something else going in if petrol cars are doing it too? Any thoughts?

[skinny] 07/1/2023 11:06

Thanks wllm - that's the my highest table position since last April - what could possibly go wrong!

[wllmherk] 07/1/2023 11:00

Standings 6/1/2023

Pos:Chg:Name:::::::::::Performance

1st = DeanForrester::::+3.21%
2nd = Philanderer::::::+3.12%
3rd = Malcolm Caton::::+3.05%
4th = Carpingtris::::::+2.83%
5th = Skinny:::::::::::+2.33%
6th = Blueliner::::::::+2.18%
7th = Gateside:::::::::+2.00%
8th = MrP::::::::::::::+1.78%
9th = wllmherk:::::::::+1.72%
10t = Dr Biotech:::::::+1.70%
11t = Aleman:::::::::::+1.10%

wllm :)