Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 05/1/2023 00:26

Aleman , you mentioned Fresnillo in an earlier post wednesday. I've had FRES on my watchlist for a while and it was tipped in The Telegraph today.

If you haven't seen it, here's a link..

[deanforester] 04/1/2023 21:21

I'm up 0.937% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.412%).

Best ises: BT.A +5.05%, SMDS +4.06% and MKS +3.95%.

Worst falls: BP.-3.62%, SHEL -3.46% and SSE -1.68%.

Not a good day for the oils.

Pub lunch with friends today. If they all come down with my cough I am infectious.

Sleep seems to be a good tactic. That's when I have time, of course.

DF

[aleman] 04/1/2023 21:03

carpingtris - Month to month CPI has been easing. Last month in the UK it was +0.4% and I think it will get close to zero in the next 6 months - possibly even below it. In some countries with stronger currencies, month-to-month CPI has turned negative of late, as I have highlighted in numerous previous posts. Even with a currency nearly as weak as Sterling, Germany just posted its second negative month. Savings accounts there have offered higher than CPI returns for the last two months - even if they paid NO interest.



Cash here could well soon return well above CPI for the first time in 13 years (apart from a short spell only just above CPI around 2015). 1-year fixed rate bonds offer pushing 4%. I'd suggest they are already likely to offer a real return over the next 12 months. (Time will tell.) If UK yield curves remain inverted and the deterrence to bank lending means a recession deepens (why lend short money long at risk for no return when banks can currently get 0.25% under base (3.25%) risk-free overnight at the B of E?), then 4% and even only 0% on individuals' savings could end up a much bigger return than typical recession-hit shares. The saved cash might buy a lot more shares in 12 months, with or without interest. That's where we seem to be in the economic cycle, and that's why I'm trying to sit on my hands. I'm watching prices carefully and see most of them falling in the last few months - houses, used cars, gas, oil, petrol, food commodities, base metals. A fixed level of cash is buying more of these. Where is the inflation? (Plus central banks would typically already be cutting base rate at this stage - as GDP turns negative - yet central bankers are STILL raising rates in a way I've not seen in previous recessions, further skewing the likely flow of savings from shares to cash in months ahead.)

CPI looks 12 months backwards. It includes a spike in prices that greatly abated 6 months ago and a government intervention in energy pricing that caused a mini spike two months ago. The underlying rate since July has still been about 5%, much higher than most other countries but mostly driven by the £ falling sharply. It basically fell from $1.35 in Feb to $1.10 in October. If we'd stayed at $1.35, CPI would have probably started falling month-on-month here, like other countries. The recovery to $1.20 in the last two months will possibly see it happen in the next few months if volatility does not return (which can't be ruled out of course - but that might well also encourage a move into cash from shares). The cash at my brokers is not getting much but might already be yielding a positive real return.

[dr biotech] 04/1/2023 20:57

Up 0.9% which is decent enough. Had 16 men to tennis practice this evening but only two courts were available of the 4 as there was a mixed match on. Ended up doing some much needed volley practice.

[mrphil] 04/1/2023 20:19

Pleased with +1.2% today!

[carpingtris] 04/1/2023 19:04

Is the idle cash beating inflation? That's the real challenge.

[gateside] 04/1/2023 19:03

A few days away from the snowfields of the north. It was 12 degrees when I arrived in coastal Suffolk late last night.

Birds were singing away like springtime this morning.

Reached 14 degrees today, and spent the day in shorts.

[blueliner] 04/1/2023 17:37

+0.91% folio, [FTSE All-Share +0.55%]

UPGS +5.7%, CSN, VANL, UU., STAB, mixed bag of highest risers.
UPGS xd tomorrow.

Worst fallers : BA.,WDS, SDV, CMCX.

Wind speed 18-37mph, 12C Coningsby with little cloud.

[malcolm caton] 04/1/2023 17:26

Up 0.92%

Best risers UPGS.SDI,BDEV,TW,ABF
worst fallers BP,FNX,SDV.ADF

[carpingtris] 04/1/2023 17:04

Local Asda - no Kitchen Roll!

[carpingtris] 04/1/2023 17:03

Up around 0.71% today.

Good to see AV. DLG and HFEL all going in the right direction.

Added a small top-up to HFEL yesterday as planned.
Looking to add to my European Small Cap Fund tomorrow, again only a small top-up for now.

Received a couple of Divi's yesterday which was nice :)

Good week so far!

[aleman] 04/1/2023 15:07

I actually don't believe food prices overall have risen any more since about October. In the last couple of months, I've still seen odd price rises which have been very conspicuous but I've also seen numerous special offers bringing prices down again. It's all a bit crazy. Some prices are reasonable and back to a year ago with offers and some rises are making odd products so expensive that I just don't buy them. Overall, I'm paying the same as 3 months ago, after a jump around August/September. I've been waiting for my twice weekly shops to break 2 x £100 for a couple of years - as I have commented several times. It still has not happened. Maybe I'm just lucky and it's hitting the budget end harder, but food inflation seems to have ceased for me recently.

However, out of stocks are getting ridiculous at SBRY. I've shopped today and could not buy 7 or 8 items I was looking for. It was dead but so were roads generally. I've not seen them so quiet on a work day for a long time.

[freddie ferret] 04/1/2023 13:36

UK rate of food price inflation still rising it seems, now over 13%.
Offset a bit by falling house prices.

[skinny] 04/1/2023 11:14

I hope you feel better soon DF.

The gas read across hitting CNA share price today and yesterday.

[aleman] 04/1/2023 10:12

UK gas price -5% so far today as it plumbs new 13-month lows. It averaged around 70p/therm in 2013. It's now 160p+ so not much more than double the price of 10 years ago - and down over 80% from the high of 875p. We should be talking about possible reductions in domestic bills. Instead we have reports of further government interventions to protect business from high prices. Why? The problem has gone away. It's starting to look like the windfall tax and other interventions were all exaggerated and unnecessary. EU reserves are so far above normal and consumption down 15%+ that even an exceptionally cold winter is now manageable (with 11 weeks left of a drawdown season of about 17/18 weeks)

[philanderer] 04/1/2023 10:05

Morning everyone.

That was a warm night, it was forecast but no rain arrived though. But it's raining now and supposed to be dry :-)

DF, get well soon. Lots of nasty bugs about at the moment.

[mrphil] 04/1/2023 09:06

Morning All.

Reasonable start for my lot but BP. & BERI getting clobbered a bit.

Off this week so meeting a friend for breakfast shortly!

EDIT: BERI looks like advfn mucking about as the portfolio screen shows a loss but the trading screen no movement!

[aleman] 04/1/2023 08:28

Good morning. French CPI 5.9% versus 6.4% expected.

[malcolm caton] 04/1/2023 08:20

Morning,

A mainly blue start,biggest fallers BP.and WDS,
UPGS goes x divi tomorrow so suppose that will fall also.

[deanforester] 03/1/2023 23:06

Here are my winners and losers in terms of share price for 2022


2022Epic ChangeBA. 55.69%PSON 53.16%BP. 43.69%SHEL 43.37%AZN 29.27%IMB 28.12%BATS 20.05%RIO 18.52%WDS@ 17.40%BHP 16.84%CPG 16.14%AV. 7.89%TATE 7.53%HLN@ 6.16%ULVR 5.99%S32 4.38%SSE 3.82%IGG -3.81%LLOY -5.00%NG. -5.89%UU. -8.96%RKT -9.27%DGE -9.56%GSK -10.52%LGEN -16.13%SMDS -16.23%TSCO -22.66%VOD -24.96%BLND -25.59%IMI -25.81%PHP -26.82%KGF -30.21%ADM -32.31%BT.A -33.91%TW. -42.08%MARS* -42.83%MKS -46.72%SGRO -46.84%


I was up +1.000% on the day today (FTSE100+1.374%).

Best rises: LLOY +3.79%, BLND ++3.32% and TW. +2.95%.

Worst falls: SSE -2.93%, WDS -1.71%v and HLN -1.33%.

Not feeling too good at the moment, with a lot of mucus on my chest. I have upped the asthma medication, but to little avail. I am gradually catching up with end of year jobs, But no incentive to do anything outside.

Roll on the weekend.

DF

[mrphil] 03/1/2023 22:30

Just had a quick look and pleased to see a healthy gain today, looks to be around 0.8% with CUSN making a healthy contribution!

That was Thor on Scarborough beach, he was down here a couple of weeks ago!

[skinny] 03/1/2023 18:12

I finished up exactly 1%.

Wet all day today and currently 12C.