Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[freddie ferret] 06/1/2018 16:09

Front page headline in todays Times "Sellers slash prices after family home market stalls"
Mainly relates to stuff over £1m.

[blueliner] 06/1/2018 10:59

Morning
+0.67% for the week.

Highest value weekly risers : NAH +9.6%, GVC +4.5%, CSN +3.4%, GSK +2.8%, with good support from the ITrusts.

Worst value weekly fallers : LCG -41%, UPGS -5.3%[xd].

Surprised I'm even positive, after all the earlier correction forecasts. Still carrying some cash reserves after topping up on AV. and buying a few CRST.

[skinny] 06/1/2018 10:29

Good Morning.

My SIPP finished up 0.34% and is +1.14% YTD.

I agree - another 51 weeks like this and I'll be off! :-)



Enjoy your weekend.

[wllmherk] 05/1/2018 23:43

I'm up +1.52% on the week,

gainers IMM +9.87%, NAH +8.97%, TNI +7.79%

Losers GCP -1.62%, CIFU -0.94%, KCOM -0.77%

Another 51 weeks like this one and it could be a great year :)

Back to work on Monday, holidays go too quickly :(

wllm

[mrphil] 05/1/2018 21:05

Well I am more than happy with +0.95% in the first week of the year for the SIPP which was all due to the managed funds. The pot fell by a negligible amount.

Enjoy your weekends, back to normal for me next week!

MrP

[deanforester] 05/1/2018 18:37

I'm up +0.808% on teh day today (FTSE100 +0.368%), up on the week and year to date +0.36% (FTSE100 +0.47% and HIX +0.75%).

Best rises: CLLN +8.56%, WMH +2.78% and MARS +2.54%.

Worst falls: ADM -2.93%, TSCO -0.71% and RIO -0.68%.

An all-time closing high, of course. CLLN had a sudden rise towards the end. Nobody has suggested why ADM had such a big fall. I give in.

Enjoy the weekend and keep warm.

DF

[hyden] 05/1/2018 17:52

Well done on an excellent first week Aleman. I would usually be very pleased with my +1.0% (and I am) but it does look somewhat pale in comparison to your performance. :-)

ISAT is today's best value riser, followed by COST, and VED is today's worst value faller. A good first week, all things considered.

Have a good weekend all. :-)

[aleman] 05/1/2018 17:13

I thought I'd see a reversal today. I actually had more blues but they were smaller to leave me at +0.3%. Remarkably, that already takes my YTD to +4.0%.

A cold day but less overcast/hazy sun and less wind. We had only 3.5C and had pictures sent of settled snow in Edinburgh this afternoon so again it seemed colder than forecasts. I'm not sure I believe tomorrow's forecast of 5-6C as wind picks up from the north and that same front moves down. We're off out in the morning's forecasted rain showers so we'll see.

-10C forecasted in places so wrap up and have a good weekend.

[deanforester] 05/1/2018 16:00

5/7 today. I actually knew 4 of the answers.

Two heavy showers this morning, since when it has been fine. +6°C all day.

DF

[aleman] 05/1/2018 15:35

GDP is gross national product (domestic revenues and purchases) plus the balance of exportsand imports - usually negative for UK but improved by exports rising relative to imports or imports falling versus exports. So, GNP can be flat but GDP still go up or down. If our GDP is weakish at say 1.3%, but exports have been rising due to the weak £, then GNP would be lower than GDP. UK activity might be poor but GDP not so bad, thanks to exports rising.

Having said that, such as car and van sales indicate a very weak domestic market that makes me sceptical that GDP is positive. I think recent numbers will be revised lower.




Wow! Spot gas in NE USA 60 times that for when the cold snap ends because they can't get it through pipes quickly enough. Futures $2.87 versus spot $175!



Wow! No more cigarettes?





More mixed retail sales number for US. Poor showings from Barnes and Noble (shares down 15%) and PriceSmart (-7%) but a couple of good ones, too, like Costco and Ollie's Bargain Outlets.

[shadowside] 05/1/2018 11:05

Aleman, Have never really understood make up of GDP. How does sale of imported goods show up in GDP numbers? Is it just added value in sales activity?

[aleman] 05/1/2018 10:06

There was a big expansion of Flumist vaccinations in UK schools in the last couple of years. It was dropped in the US as being ineffective. It looks like the US could be right. Now, they are questioning the injections, too.

[aleman] 05/1/2018 10:02

Crawshaw's LfL -6.1%. Next bricks and mortar sales were -6.1%. Debenhams' UK LfL was -2.6%. Isolated or general trend?

[aleman] 05/1/2018 09:39

UK car sales fall bad. US car sales fall good. The US sales fall would have been about the same as UK except for hurricanes. The underlying trend for both is accelerating declines.



UK car sales down 14.4% in December. Van sales down 11.1%. (UK HGV down 5.7% in Q3) These are part of a continuing downward acceleration that indicate UK consumers, small business and haulage firms are in recession. It's baffling how UK GDP figures are still positive.

[shadowside] 05/1/2018 09:32

I love the way the drop in car sales is being portrayed as "bad news" or "worrying" in
BBC parlance. Given we have a huge trade deficit and 90% of cars are imported I would have thought it thoroughly good news. Thats before you take inot account levels of household debt. If we are ever to "rebalance" the economy then bringing realism to both the new car and housing markets would be a pretty good start.

XF behaved perfectly over the holiday period so may get a reprieve. Another blow for new car sales.

[aleman] 04/1/2018 20:01

Bantams v Oxford Utd. on Dec 30th saw 46 shots - highest in English League this season. With only 5 goals, clearly shooting practice is needed!

[aleman] 04/1/2018 19:38

Here's a new one for me: Sudden increase in probability of global companies defaulting (from very low base).






Also, Lending Club default trends continue to deteriorate - 2016 A+B grades look to be delivering slightly higher default rates than 2014+15 but look like delivering satisfactory returns. C+D grade defaults for 2016 issues look much worse than 2014+15 and look like delivering very unsatisfactory returns close to zero. E and F/G grades isued in 2016 look like being a disaster, looking set to have negative returns despite charging interest rates between 25 and 30%.

(Play with chart "NET ANNUALISED RETURNS BY VINTAGE")



If you take them all together, the average return looks set to end up around only 2% for 2016 issues (and 4.5% for 2015 and 7% for 2014), where 8-10% has been more typical in the past. Interest rates for new loans still seem to be rising even though already very high for subprime, which look like they will have to charge 35-40% to make a reasonable return. Excessive defaulting is spreading into C+D grades. (A+B make up a little over 40%, C+D about 50%.) These increasingly high default rates should be ringing alarm bells!

[mrphil] 04/1/2018 18:18

Today cancelled out Tuesday loss so I'm about evens YTD which means I'm already lagging behind! Will probably join you with LCG Aleman and just accept the loss which is slightly more than CLLN last year! Just hope the managed funds continue to support my poor decisions elsewhere!

Visited the beach earlier, the lunchtime high tide coupled with strong wind caused the road to get flooded!

[deanforester] 04/1/2018 18:02

I'm down -0.010% on the day today (FTSE100 +0.322%).

Worst falls: MKS -3.65%, BLND -3.0% XD and BT.A -1.23%.

Best rises: CLLN +2.35%, IMI +1.41% and MARS +1.24%.

IMI is heading upwards towards my trimming point. Another 3% would do it. BLND fell more than the dividend, and is almost 2% down without it.

I'm busy returning things to Amazon - a Kindle bought for Mrs DF, which will not work with the Library's software, and a duff printer cartridge. I got a box from the local sub-post office for the Kindle and stuff, and I was trying to assemble it when the counter clerk took over, saying "We like to let people have a couple of minutes to try first", with a smile.

Very damp underfoot after the rain overnight. At one spot I had the option of a paddle or a trudge over very muddy grass. I tried the grass, but it was horrible, so the puddle won coming back. Fortunately my shoes are Clarks with Goretex inside. Very mild, 9-10°C today.

DF

[aleman] 04/1/2018 17:31

Thanks, all. It's only a few days and markets are unpredictable but it's a better start than last year!

ff - 115bn?

[freddie ferret] 04/1/2018 17:25

Yes so far this is a better year.

[hyden] 04/1/2018 17:24

A much better day today, +0.45%. VED is today's best value riser and DEB is today's worst value faller.

It looks like we have shared the same weather as you Aleman as I have done little else but moan about the dark skies, rain and wind this afternoon. My hands were literally freezing as I attempted to fine tune the gears on my mountain bike but at least it is done now ready for the weekend. :-) And well done on your returns, I hope it continues. :-)

Have a good evening all.