Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[skinny] 15/12/2017 05:29

Good Morning.

Aleman - I must have been on holiday :-)

Although the thread is a month old, the icon has only appeared this week.

My SIPP finished down 0.11%.



3/8.

[hyden] 14/12/2017 20:21

Thank you DeanForester, I hadn't noticed that MARS went XD today. :-)

I hope you got home safely MrPhil. :-)

[aleman] 14/12/2017 20:10

We've had dozens of surveys saying the US is picking up through the summer while corporate earnings were missed and guidance reduced. I'll believe the US is improving when companies start beating forecasts and raising guidance.

Things are booming so much that yield curves flattened a bit more today. Investors sold shares and bought medium and long bonds. UK slope fell to 1.23% from 1.29% yesterday. US 0-30 dropped from 1.24% to 1.21%. (US 2-10 fell few points to 0.53%.) Bond markets do not like what central bankers are dishing out. Junk bond spreads are not blowing out yet much, though. One to watch.

[freddie ferret] 14/12/2017 19:22

Things seem to be booming over on the other side of the pond.

[freddie ferret] 14/12/2017 19:21

Aleman.

Anyone can start up their own crypto currency and for a while its price may rise.
However in the long term crypto will be a store of value and a means of exchange and only one will do. It must have finite availability and be the first.

That is why Bitcoin will remain the king. Bankers will try to debase the market by creating others but in the long run no one would invest in something they can create themselves at little cost to themselves.

The mining aspect of Bitcoin is crutial it costs money and energy.

[hyden] 14/12/2017 18:06

I enjoyed a lovely afternoon out on the bike today, some off-road but mainly road cycling. One Bridleway was a quagmire, never to be repeated but the remainder of the ride was quite pleasant and all the better for the warming sunshine. There remains a lot of snow on the curb-side, pathways and side streets. One street in particular was like an ice rink and I was unable to keep the bike upright. Thankfully I was able to jump off in time and remain on my feet, a lucky escape. :-)

I have somehow managed to trump the FTSE today and I am up +0.10%. Risers are plentiful but small in value and the crown goes to VED. MARS is by far and away the worst value faller, followed by CPI, which is only a tiddler in my portfolio.

[deanforester] 14/12/2017 18:04

I'm down -o.421% on the day today (FTSE100 -0.646%).

Worst falls: MARS -3.8% XD, BATS -2.08% and GSK -1.79%.

Best rises: CLLN +3.13%, BT.A +2.18% and INDV +1.80%.

MARS actually fell less than the dividend (4.8p, v. 4.5p fall). CLLN continues to yo-yo. I added about 15% to my holding of BT.A this morning. Pity about the rise in price, but who knows what the future may bring. Adds a bit to what I shall get from the next dividend.

Probus lunch today with entertainment from a keyboard player and a singer, with some audience participation. A nice meal. Not many golfers about, as it was a bit wet underfoot and definitely chilly. +2°C first thing with some wind. About +5°C seemed to be the best according to the car thermometer.

DF

[mrphil] 14/12/2017 17:55

Thanks Aleman, the year will now be OK rather than excellent!

Great, I have a migraine developing! Just been through the lack of vision which is now starting to come back so I need to get ready to drive home before the real headache and sickness take hold? Really don't like this stress in the run of to Christmas and our year end!

[aleman] 14/12/2017 17:12

I hope a quiet Christmas doesn't do any harm to your good year, MrP.

Lots of red. -0.4% for me.

Grey, cold and damp. 4.5C. After this mornings black ice, more ice is forecasted for the next two nights - not what somebody told us yesterday!

Tomasz Schafernaker
✔
@Schafernaker

....well, i’ll stick my neck out for #Christmas🎅. And it’s no surprise- most likely to be wet & windy & mild. And even if snow falls (around xmas) surprise surprise it’ll be across far northern hills... 🌂💨💦☁ᥧ9; The cold snap is o-v-e-r, until the next one.
18:23 - 13 Dec 2017

15 15 Replies
16 16 Retweets
134

Different sources are forecasting different things for Christmas - somebody will be right! White Christmas betting odds are still short - 4/1 for London, which is about 3 times more likely than a typical year..

[mrphil] 14/12/2017 17:07

This all sounds like a lot of hard work!

Not a great day for my lot, SIPP -0.35% with GSK, LLOY & NG. leading a long list of fallers, and a whopping -1.43% for the pot due to AMS, LLOY & RR.. The SIPP would have been a whole lot worse were it not for SCLP, CTO & DC.

Might put the Christmas tree up this evening for a bit of cheer, certainly not much on the markets and business died a death a few weeks ago!

Love, Lies & Records this evening.

[aleman] 14/12/2017 16:59

Just opened my wallet and it turns out I got 100 coins. There must have been another 50 in there that had not confirmed by the time I closed it. It takes about 4 days to mine 100 coins now on a PC without a fancy graphics card. That's exchangeable for something over £7. Miners can do it alot quicker - they are basically an array of specialised graphics cards in a stripped down PC. It's interesting that the coins have gone from nothing to £7 in one month. There is a future for this stuff. Will Plus1 Coin have any value? I've no idea! It's a Bitcoin fork so I presume it's slow and expensive, too, and might be overtaken by a cheaper faster alternative - but it mightmake itself a profitable niche first. It's a very interesting space, chock full of opportunities, opportunists and fraudsters.

[aleman] 14/12/2017 16:29

I posted that a month ago, Skinny. I mined 50 coins in about 20 minutes. That now takes about 2 days and would have a value of about £4 which can now be realised in Bitcoin on an exchange, and that switched to fiat on another. I quickly got bored but some poster are feverishly excited about using coins to reward posters and push threads up to the top of the fbb. Apparently ADVFN take a 30% cut of rewards and the poster or thread originator keeps 70%.

[skinny] 14/12/2017 14:57

I've just come across - which explains?? the new 'tickable' icon that we have

[mrphil] 14/12/2017 11:22

Market not too keen on SPD results. I did have my remaining shares earmarked to move on but haven't got around to it. Bought at 276p and sold half at 404p so can't complain.

[aleman] 14/12/2017 10:29

Capita down 14% today and 70% from 2015.

[aleman] 14/12/2017 10:15

It's nice to see one of my posts recognised as making sense, Hyden. Maybe you are as mad as me. :-)


November retail sales a bit mixed - but that is better than October. The trouble is that cold weather and a growing Black Friday influence probably dragged some sales forward. Also, fuel sales were a bit stronger, which could be related to the first two, maybe. The better November is not strong enough to alter the weak medium term trend and I suspect markets should brace for December numbers that could be on the weak side. I've done most of my Christmas shopping and anecdotally this is quite common. Early snow and early promotions have probably encouraged early seasonal shopping. Still, it is better for retailers to sell more early at near full price than more in the last week before Christmasdisappointfor , or after, at 50% off to clear stock they could shift earlier. December may sales but it might not be so bad for retailer margins, IF they have anticipated well and carefully managed the level of genuine discounting over the Black Friday weekend.

[hyden] 14/12/2017 10:11

Morning all, a mildly Red start for me today. So much for the Santa Rally. ;-)

Thank you Aleman, that is as good an explanation of why we get a Christmas Rally as any I have ever read and my own experience is perfectly in line with your suggestion - I have monthly performance data for the past 7 years and I see that my portfolio was down -2.34% in December 2011 but rose on all other years. So, I have made money in December 85.71% of the time. :-)

Looking back at my daily performance data across 2013 - 2016, the final 10 trading days each year gives me an average daily return of +0.34%. On 5 days I have managed to return in excess of 1%. There have been no days where I have lost in excess of 1%. The largest loss was 31st Dec '15 at -0.54%.

Looking at the earlier part of December, my average daily return over the past 5 years is down -0.13%. There have been 7 days where I have lost in excess of 1% and only 2 days where I have managed to return in excess of 1%. The largest loss was Fri 12th Dec '14 at -2.56%.

My average for December as a whole (across the last 7 years) is +1.58%. So far this month I am down -0.29% so an average year would see me return around +1.87% for the remaining part of the year. :-)

That is certainly good enough for me. Happy Christmas everyone. :-)

[mrphil] 14/12/2017 09:44

We've been spared for now, a high of 9.7°C yesterday which only dropped to 4.6°C last night. Quite bright with lots of sunshine at the moment, but doesn't feel warm!

Parliaments antics of last night have obviously upset the markets.

[aleman] 14/12/2017 09:26

We had -1.3C overnight and rising to around 1C for the school run. It as lethal with black ice. Despite ice warnings, the council had not salted. Pedestrians couldn't walk on pavements so walked on the road, where they were still slipping. I saw no cars go sideways but there were several instances of wheelspin, with too many drivers oblivious to how dangerous it was and so going far too quickly. I would imagine there must have been loads of accidents. Why do English councils always seem incapable of dealing with wintry weather properly, even when it is expected?

[shadowside] 14/12/2017 08:44

Morning all,

Decent set of results from TON. Rev,Prof,divi all up by around 20% and at least the share price has gone up a little rather than fallen which it often does in such circumstances.

Again dropped to freezing ovenight but only just. Feeling cold in the wind.

[mrphil] 14/12/2017 08:40

Morning All.

Other than SCLP which is having a good start, the SIPP looks decidedly red this morning.

[skinny] 14/12/2017 08:37

French Flash Manufacturing PMI 59.3 57.2 57.7

German Flash Manufacturing PMI 63.3 62.1 62.5

[aleman] 14/12/2017 08:19

Pier 1 produces weak guidance even though it's internet penetration is quite high at 26%.

[aleman] 14/12/2017 07:37

New accounting standard to hit Capita's 2018 results.

We expect a number of bid decisions in the coming months. If successful, these bids are unlikely to be accretive to profits in 2018, due to the phasing of revenue and costs under IFRS 15, but are expected to create value for shareholders over their lifetime.

I expect this to repeated amongst a number of contracting companies. Capita shares seem to have fallen quite a lot on relatively modest bad news. I think shorters are likely to be running positions into the accounting change. I've read that the accounting change is not an improvement and will produce some unrealistic results at times. Shorters attacking companies that operate on contracts could explain unusual weakness in some other shares , such as ISAT.