Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 18/12/2017 09:31

Good morning, everyone and welcome to a new week. I hope you're right about the Santa rally, MrP.

It was another wheel spinning walk to school this morning, with frost on main roads since they still have not gritted. We keep getting lower than forecasted temperatures to a greater or lesser degree (which won't help the council decide what to do). I think last night's -1.1C is our 11th consecutive overnight frost which must be quite unusual. We are now forecasted a mild week until Christmas but we also had Tomasz Shaferaker say the cold snap would finish last Wednesday!

Forecasted gas demand is still above normal for today and I don't think that has been under since Dec 7th either, as can be seen on their chart.



Although the electric grid has been straining, I gather gas is good to 419 before they can take special measures, so doesn't look too worrisome day to day. However, we could do with a pause in the cold weather since stored gas reserves have fallen quite a bit in the last week.



December looks set to be the 6th colder than average month for the UK this year, according to Weatherbell, so it should not be too far from an average year, perhaps just edging to very slightly warm. No doubt the Met Office will find it warm and the NOAA will have the warmest year ever again.

[mrphil] 18/12/2017 08:49

Morning All.

Surprisingly chilly this morning after a mild 9.7°C late evening yesterday. No frost though.

Hyden, nice blue start here too, here's hoping Santa is on his way!

[hyden] 18/12/2017 08:15

Morning all. A very encouraging start to the week with my screen mostly Blue at the minute. The weekend was rather wet but the snow and ice still persists in places. Hopefully this week will see the last of it.

[aleman] 17/12/2017 13:19

-3.6C overnight so a hard frost. As it passed through 0C this morning, with no thawing yet, it rained. Black ice is usually only a problem about once a year but we've had it 3 times in a week.



It's interesting - and scary - how quickly the crypto space is developing. There will be big winners but much money going into this unregulated space will be lost.





I think the reason some companies are being shorted is changes in accounting in 2018 amd 2019. IFRS 15 and IFRS 9 attack aggressive early recognition of contract revenues and aggressive late recognition of credit losses. Both are being met with a certain amount of criticism. It has affected shares like Capita, Utilitywise, Rolls Royce and others. I wonder if it is affecting ISAT. It's really hard to tell. Some companies that work by contracts have said they would be unaffected. It depends how they recognised revenues previously. I think most of us should be aware of what is happening. I think it might be worth doing some research on the matter for everyone. Some companies say some of the changes produce a worse accounting regime rather than an improvement. Some companies get hit hard in the changeover period even though the business has not changed. Some seem to have profits reduced more permanently. I don't profess to understand. When these two changes are done, there are changes to how assets are recognised on balance sheets to come (which I think is more for financials).

[freddie ferret] 16/12/2017 16:35

If the window has bars, the door is locked and you get porridge for breakfast it might just be Theresa Mays Brexit and not jail.



Things are getting rather serious.

[aleman] 16/12/2017 11:14

-2.8C last night. We've got lots of small flowers coming out around rocks and paths and a few daffs sprouting in the lawn. Besides winter roses, we also have a few pansies and some plants like aubrieta and marigolds which grow like weeds. Even a few shrubs and ivy are coming to life, including the Pieris which has some clusters budding. It's amazing what a bit of sun does even, when it's sub-zero. It has not been as depressing this winter so far. Dry, cold and fairly sunny works for me! I hope the coming milder spell doesn't spoil it.

We are losing the forecasts for cold in the UK all the way to January and most are opting for mild now. For Christmas, the cold and snow is set for USA (right down to Mexico again), Eastern Europe and Middle East.

[wllmherk] 15/12/2017 22:22

A couple of good weeks for my lot with IMM threatening to pull me into positive territory for the year-

Worst weekly performers- SAGA -7.86%, KCOM -6.53%, RECI -3.45%

Best weekly performers- IMM +21.29%, MXF +5.42%, CAL +4.01%


Have a nice weekend all

wllm

[deanforester] 15/12/2017 17:56

1/8 for me, and that was a blind guess.

I'm up +0.463% on teh day today (FTSE100 +0.570%), up +0.79% on teh week (FTSE100 +1.31%) and up +6.20% YTD (FTSE100 +4.87% and HIX +2.18%).

Best rises: BLT +2.57%, TATE +2.05% and UU. +2.00%.

Worst falls: MKS -1.78%, PSON -1.76% and SMDS -1.67%.

I'm susprised at the reaction to the results from SMDS, which seems to be related to raw material costs, since they are leading recyclers of paper and board. They continue to drift down. Meanwhile the miners had a good day.

+2°C this morning with light rain. The sun came out about 12:30. It didn't feel any warmer.

Enjoy the weekend. I think that I have done all my shopping.

DF

[hyden] 15/12/2017 17:48

A pleasing end to the week, +0.42% today. VED is again the best value riser, followed by CTO. Fallers are quite modest in value but the crown of thorns goes to RPC. YTD stands at +14.90% and December is now back in positive territory.

Today worked out exactly as planned, a very enjoyable catch up with an old work colleague followed by a lovely afternoon ride in the sunshine. The cold northerly wind was a bit brisk for my liking but I was content just to be out. :-)

Have a good weekend all.

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 17:29

This doesn't bode well....there would be fewer store openings and more closures in the future.

[aleman] 15/12/2017 17:23

H&M Sept-Nov sales were down 4% against a +2% forecast. That's a sharp slowdown. H&M is a global company where 30% of sales are in the US and Germany which are supposed to be booming. HHHhhhmmm .....



Maybe not just a UK slowdown?

[aleman] 15/12/2017 17:08

+0.1%. YTD +3.0%

Some sunny spells and some big grey clouds that looked "snowy" but kept moving in a 15mph northerly. Damp but no fresh rain or snow. 4.1C high was enough to melt all the black ice and frost but felt cold and it's now 2C with showers knocking about so I'd expect a dusting of snow and/or more ice and frost. It's forecasted milder next week. Hope it's not all damp and grey.

Keep warm and dry and have a good weekend, all.

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 17:03

Not a bad week all around, although the pot did manage to slide by -0.26% on the week. SIPP +0.70% (mainly thanks to the managed funds) and the Virgin ISA +1.09% so that takes the YTD figures to SIPP +2.79%, pot +9.14% and the Virgin ISA +7.73%

Might go for a brief but chilly cruise around The Solent tomorrow morning if we get the promised wall to wall sunshine. Hopefully there will be enough salt in the water to stop it freezing!

Enjoy your weekends

MrP

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 15:11

I wonder how much of JLR's drop in UK sales is due to the change in the tax laws, with virtually every model falling foul of the £40K rule? I think it is enough for me to forget about buying a new car. You could buy a gas guzzling pre 2006 Range Rover V8 and you would pay less road tax than a decent new electric car!

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 14:41

Shadowside, I agree it's obscene, but I guess it's up to Persimmon to put their affairs in order. If we stopped buying their products they wouldn't be able to get away with it. Bit like some of the antics of Amazon yet people (not me I hasten to add) flock to them in their droves. At least Persimmon are putting some money back in the UK coffers!

[aleman] 15/12/2017 13:10

POP!

Canadian house prices fall for third month.

[shadowside] 15/12/2017 12:58

The worst thing about Help to Buy and Persimmon is that effectively young people are taking on additional long term debt to fund obscene bonusses for executives. Where is the sanity in that?

[shadowside] 15/12/2017 11:44

The whole executive pay system has been out of control for years. When I was MD of a reasonably sized company 20 years ago I made about 5X the average salary and felt even that was more than generous. Effectively there is no control of boardroom pay at all. The fund management industry have their snouts in the same trough and now the disease has spread into government funded bodies like universities.

I think I would tackle it through the tax system. Any pay over 10X average salary is taxed at 100%. Then if their egos demanded an enormous salary it wouldn't matter. Or give the employees a vote. And there is the world of difference between the reward for entrepreneurship and the reward for climbing the corporate ladder when there is no penalty for failure.

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 11:01

Looks like the scheme was already very generous but then has been boosted considerably by the Help To Buy scheme - he must have thought all his Christmas's have arrived in go go! I agree it's totally obscene and your suggested figure of 10 times average employee wage is more than reasonable. Even after 20+ years of putting my house on the line and risking everything, I haven't broken through that figure yet! ;-)

[aleman] 15/12/2017 10:44

I tend towards the view that directors should not get more than 10 times the average of their employees.

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 10:43

I see the court hearing for sanction of the ALD takeover hasn't yet been set and is likely to be during Q1 2018 so I don't suppose I'll see the cash for a few months yet, but I guess that will stop me putting it at risk!

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 10:36

Just been looking at the LCG website and quite disappointed to see the latest accounts they show are 2015 and when you click on "current performance" you just get a blank screen!

[mrphil] 15/12/2017 10:26

Hyden, CTO best value riser for me too this morning, by quite some margin. That stock really does confuse me sometimes!

Aleman, I think you're trying to send your cold weather back down here again, only 3.3°C first thing this morning and I think we're in for a chilly one tomorrow.

[aleman] 15/12/2017 09:31

Another dangerous walk to school with black ice on paths and roads - still no salting done locally. I drove through some sleety snow last night after I'd cleared the frozen rain from the screen. -1.1C. We've had enough winteriness that I'd now quite like a warm Christmas - but forecasts are all over the place.


FTSE100 200-day average has stopped rising. Which way will it go when it stops dithering?