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[aleman] 09/3/2017 16:32

I bumped into my other online retailer acquaintance this morning. This is the one that sells UK-sourced ladies' fashions. He seemed a bit disappointed that his fairly normal post-Christmas lull had yet to show any sign of ending yet. He would not yet say business is bad but is getting a little worried about this year's well documented headwinds.

[skinny] 09/3/2017 15:57

A lovely day here, easily hitting the 15°C forecast.

I ordered a new wooden picnic table at the weekend which arrived yesterday. I duly set about assembling it after lunch and found that the (supplied) 8 x 75mm coach bolts needed to fix the legs were actually 2 x 75mm and 6 x 60mm - a bit annoying and I'll be going to Homebase or similar in the morning!

[aleman] 09/3/2017 14:47

Cracking the flags here, with a 14.7C high around lunchtime. Despite the wind, which was chilly this morning, it felt quite warm. Indoors it hit 27C with the back door open from befoe 10am. You can't beat weather like this. Sunny and warm but not too hot to do jobs.


Still lots of bad news coming through in the US. This one is less consumer-orientated and possibly bodes ill for small business. 70 stores to close.






North American airlines had the slowest demand growth, with traffic rising 3.2% in January, compared to a year ago. Capacity climbed 3.1%, and load factor was flat at 80.3%. Traffic on the transpacific market has continued to trend upwards but North Atlantic traffic growth has weakened since the middle of 2016, reflecting softer demand on UK-US routes.

And getting worse?








Hugo Boss numbers showed an American slump.

[mrphil] 09/3/2017 14:16

Beautiful day here, the car was reading 15°C earlier.

I presume it's the oil price hammering BP. & BRCI?

[aleman] 09/3/2017 11:44

Zopa has updated it's credit risk data. 2016 and 2017 tranch loans are now running with projected default rates similar to the last crisis peak. (4.08% and 4.89% versus 2008's 4.24%, respectively, after 2008 overan its projection of 3.58%. The low in this cycle was an actual 0.69% in 2012.). Now imagine if this 7-fold explosion in defaults is repeated right across the banking system. UK consumer spending has been bought since 2013 by increasingly risky lending that is now running into trouble.

[aleman] 09/3/2017 11:22

The last time Santander Consumer's US auto loans showed an improvement in delinquency rates was Q3 2014. Every quarterly tranche of loans issued since then shows a higher delinquency rate accumulating than the previous one. Increased car sales since 2014 have been bought with increasingly reckless lending that is now running into trouble.

[deanforester] 09/3/2017 11:21

Too right about AV. A very nice price rise.

I'm going to London late afternoon, so shall be late reporting.

DF

[mrphil] 09/3/2017 08:10

Market likes results from AV. ;-)

[aleman] 09/3/2017 08:06

Lots of misses in US overnight - possibly most I've seen. PLus a couple of bankruptcies in Westinghouse and Shakeshack.




And the reponse:

[mrphil] 09/3/2017 07:57

Morning All.

Disappointed with Hammond's dividend tax change but probably hard to argue with it, more concerned about the NI increase for self-employed. He says he wants to make it a level playing field as they "use all services the same" but I think he is forgetting they get no SSP when they are sick, they get no maternity pay etc etc and of course they are generally taking more risk than an employee. Very poorly thought out and I think that one is likely to haunt him.

We saw 13.8°C yesterday and it had only dropped to 10.1°C by 6:30 this morning. We are due a nice day, just in time for the start of our new patio and path project, they arrive any minute!

[aleman] 09/3/2017 07:38

Mixed retail news. The drop in footfall in February seems severe.

[blueliner] 08/3/2017 21:11

The Folio gained +£98 today. [FTSE250 +0.24%]

BRSN -2.7% falling away again today, the CEO definitely jumped in too large size too early, he is already down £55892. Norges Bank meanwhile now have a notifiable holding.
CLIG -2.3%

Highest value risers : CSN +2.1%, BA. +1.4%, RTC +7.1%.

Was expecting the £5000 tax free dividend allowance to be held with the current 7.5% tax take to be increased. £2000 ?? always the unexpected.

Another dry day & sunny periods max 11C up to 14C.

[mrphil] 08/3/2017 17:26

Similar story for my lot with that earlier gain for the SIPP dwindling to a slight loss. The pot however did manage +0.33% thanks entirely to AMS & LLOY

Well done Skinny, looks a lovely tree if you can wait that long!

Shadowside, I do agree it should all be simplified, but it does get very frustrating that every change they make means more out of my pocket, and I don't think they do too badly out of me as it is!

Who Do You Think You Are followed by The Real Marigold Hotel tonight, will have to get the shopping done quick!

[deanforester] 08/3/2017 17:24

I am almost unchanged on the day today, up +0.004% (FTSE100 -+0.060%).

Best rises: ADM +1.7% then CLLN and LLOY, both +1.2%.

Worst falls: LGEN -2.1% then RDSB and BLT, both -1.2%.

Contrasting fortunes, LGEN raised their dividend and fell, AFM held theirs and rose, reversing yesterday's fall.

AV. report tomorrow. I wonder how they will fare?

DF

[freddie ferret] 08/3/2017 17:23

LAKE did something similar to DX. a while back. However it seems to be recovering.
DYOR

[shadowside] 08/3/2017 17:12

A dull budget but I think I prefer that to Gideons constant political tinkering. Shame about the dividend allowance but much as I benefited from it I could never see the sense of separate allowances for savings and dividends. If you earn the same you should be taxed the same. The housing bit of IHT is also a bit silly. It should just be a single rate. Treating houses differently makes little sense.

Well done on germinating your tree Skinny. Thats usually department of diffficult sums.

Lovely sunny day in the garden tidying up.Lots of things that normally would be cut down by frost still going strong....penstemons,salvias etc..... but getting straggly so needed cutting back anyway.

[skinny] 08/3/2017 16:53

My SIPP finished down 0.16%.

A wet morning followed by a cloudy afternoon @13°C.

I bought some Gleditsia triacanthos seeds from the internet a couple of months ago and managed to get some to germinate at the second attempt.

[freddie ferret] 08/3/2017 16:50

Poor day.
Mild and drizzly.

[aleman] 08/3/2017 16:49

The budget seems to have nibbled away at me in many recent years. I would not mind if poorer people benefitted but they don't seem to. The 0.1% seem to be the only ones on the up while everybody else gets squeezed.


Normal service resumed - opened nicely up but drifted off to -0.2%.

Cloudy morning followed by a sunny afternoon with a windy spell in between. Warmer at 12.3C but felt cooler in the wind.

[mrphil] 08/3/2017 15:43

How about removing the lifetime limit on pensions? Why should we be penalised if we make good investments?

Talking of which, the SIPP has finally swung into positive territory for the first time today!

[mrphil] 08/3/2017 14:26

Spotted that Aleman, that's another £975 per year down the tubes!

[aleman] 08/3/2017 13:17

Tax-free dividend allowance reduced from £5k to £2k from 2018.