Northern Foods Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 01/3/2017 10:57

Just investigating the muted response to good results from Gregg's yesterday and it seems the market picked up that like for like sales rose 4.2% last year but only 2% so far this year. The company said things were getting tougher due to the usual rising costs sorts of reasons. I keep wondering how stockmarkets can remain strong with news like this leaking out everywhere.

I picked up this interesting story off the Gregg's thread:

[skinny] 01/3/2017 10:31

Yes - well done Aleman - not something I've ever tried.

[aleman] 01/3/2017 10:23

We had another frost with -0.8C. It has cleared more quickly, though, and feels to be warming nicely, as the sun rouses itself from its winter slumber.

Thanks, Shadowside. Be aware that I have a south facing corner with glass to both sides so others might struggle if they have less sunlight - although it's not been very sunny here in the last few months (lots of murk and fog, hence still waiting for some outdoor flowers to show).It may be an achievement but I'm disappointed at the amount that has survived, with the problem mainly seeming to be buckling under the weight of quite a good fruit crop in Nov. I'm hoping to get what's left back outside soon, close to the house where there will be some protection from the odd late frost. There are a few new sprouts hiding amongst the brown stems, to add to a couple of green stems that are now gaining leaves.


Lots of results again and I haven't spotted any significantly bad news so that's good, although I've only barely skimmed them and it's hard to find outlook statements quite often.

My acquantance who runs an online business selling medical stuff for footcare seemed worried when I spoke to him. His business has grown steadily for 8 years but he says it has been down since Christmas. What makes it worse is that he is paying more for goods and his other input costs are going up so his margins are being squeezed. He commented on a few things but mentioned his Amazon shop particularly. He says Amazon are producing good results by increasing charges as volume growth slows. He says this is causing problems for a number of other online retailers he knows. His specific increases in online charges are adding to more general increases we all have in the pipeline so he has started the year poorly and thinks it will get worse. The consensus amongst his online selling friends seems to be that a squeeze is nailed on in coming months The debate remains over how bad it will be.

[mrphil] 01/3/2017 10:09

The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS
Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) posted
54.6 in February, a three-month low and down
further from December’s two-and-a-half year
high. However, the PMI was firmly above its longrun
average of 51.6 and nonetheless signalled
expansion for the seventh successive month.

[mrphil] 01/3/2017 10:06

You and me both Skinny, the SIPP is looking decidedly red this morning.

Can only claim RSA off that dividend list.

DF, CLLN actually started positive which was a very short lived pleasant surprise!

[deanforester] 01/3/2017 09:58

Late home last night.

I was up +0.281% on the day yesterday (FTSE100 +0.144%).

Best rises: CLLN +2.3%, PSON +2.2% and BA. +1.9%.

Worst falls: BLT -2.1%, RIO -1.3% and BT.A -1.1%.

Good results from TW. yesterday and CLLN's look OK this morning. Needless to say, CLLN had a sharp fall.

DF

[mrphil] 01/3/2017 08:25

No great surprise DX. lost their planning appeal but a good enough excuse to hammer the share price again.

[mrphil] 01/3/2017 07:56

Morning All.

Safe trip back Shadowside, if you're not already here!

Should have had a pancake party last night the amount of batter mix we made! Had two with home grown Raspberries out of the freezer with ice cream, two with chopped bananas and ice cream and just one of the good old lemon & sugar. Diet starts today!

Not sure CLLN results will cause much movement in the share price either way, but we'll have to see. Didn't top up and will probably sit tight for now.

[blueliner] 28/2/2017 20:23

-0.10% today.

Worst value fallers : ASY -6.3%, BLT -2.1%, BRWM -2%.

Highest value risers : BA. +1.9%, GVC +1%, BRSN +1%.

Not sure why ASY fell, it is highly illiquid, a shade overpriced but thrives in extreme weather conditions.

A case for adding to IRV earlier on but already in my top ten of invested stakes.
You would be deluded to expect that dividend level to continue, so I'll never get the 8.1% on my spreadsheet.

[shadowside] 28/2/2017 18:15

Mildew Aleman. Maybe a consequence of watering the leaves. Have been impressed that you have overwintered them at all.May try it with Minibel this year which is a dwarf variety that seems to regenerate well.

Waiting in hotel for bus to airport. Went for a walk after breakfast but at -18 was thoroughly unpleasant so cut it short.

UK is going to feel quite warm tomorrow.

[aleman] 28/2/2017 17:34

-0.2%. Another small fall - but I don't like the way they are adding up.

8.5C high on a variable but dry day. The syb was around at lunchtime and it felt pleasant in the garden. Daffs all yellow now but still none open. Lots of smaller narcissi are catching them up. Grass growing - doubt it will be 4 weeks to second cut. Tomato got some new leaves growing well but a powdery white appearance is being picked up by a number of leaves, which bodes ill.

[skinny] 28/2/2017 17:19

By SIPP finished down £2.01p.

A mixed day with rain this afternoon after the very sunny start @9°C.

[mrphil] 28/2/2017 17:04

The short tennis session at lunchtime will have to do wllm, before the rain arrived!

Pleasant surprise to see an upturn towards the close, wiping out earlier losses. The SIPP managed +0.07% with top risers SSE, BP. & CLLN whilst the pot did even better with +0.15% thanks to RR., AMS & MACF

The Replacement starts tonight which looks like it could be quite good.

[skinny] 28/2/2017 15:45

Looks good MrP - we're having a meal traditional for pancake day - Thai green curry :-)

Looks like the market didn't like the REDD update.

USD Chicago PMI 57.4 53.2 50.3

USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 17 10 12

USD CB Consumer Confidence 114.8 111.3 111.6

[wllmherk] 28/2/2017 15:34

you better book a tennis court for tonight MrP if your eating that.....I think there may be a few calories there :)

wllm

[aleman] 28/2/2017 12:09

Target's already weak 2016 earnings deteriorate in Q4.



And some good news in the consumer sector, Priceline results get stronger in Q4 (although a regional breakdown would have been nice).




And the sovereign det crisis rumbles on - IMF wants a write-off deal for unsustainable debt while EU banks don't and want further Greek concessions to get more funding.

[mrphil] 28/2/2017 10:45

After the dreadful strikes around here on Southern Railway I'm surprised they made any money!

[mrphil] 28/2/2017 10:43

Thanks Skinny & Aleman. Been doing this for too many years to take anything for granted, but I am quietly confident of a good year this year. We have made a big effort on rebranding and increased Social Media activity to move with the times, and it does appear that is certainly doing us no harm. Being a small player, we'll just have to take a slightly bigger slice if the overall market declines. One area which will require close scrutiny is credit. We have been lucky enough over the past couple of years to vastly increase the percentage of upfront payment projects, but there is increasing pressure to allow more credit terms which will obviously affect cashflow. Cash is king so I suspect we may turn down the odd project rather than risk a default.

I thought they had pinched my Leaf for a minute there with that "self driving" car!

[aleman] 28/2/2017 10:15

Numis' new numbers for MCLS look quite promising with the shares at 177p.

2017 2018
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)
27/02/17 BUY 24.90 17.30 10.30 31.30 22.00 11.00

[aleman] 28/2/2017 09:47

Frosty after -0.4C but melting quickly in the sun

hxxp://www.aol.co.uk/news/2017/02/28/profit-warning-and-apology-to-customers-from-group-behind-southe/

Go-Ahead said the Brexit vote had also caused economic uncertainty, but said it was "not yet able to identify clear trends" linking this to the slowdown in passenger demand in some of its businesses.

We are going to keep getting this Brexit commentary for any bad news. Thing is, the credit cycle was turning with rising defaults anyway. If anything, the weaker £ has just pushed the economic effect of deteriorating credit back 6-12 months but it then has rising import costs added to it (along with that growing list of government-inspired cost increases starting soon). A slowdown seens to be starting to hit home in subprime markets so working class areas are tending to feel it first. (Oxford bus use was hit by a major shopping development going on.) I think a fall in bus passengers is one of the first places you would expect to see a credit cycle driven slowdown. The fact that Next warned should therefore be no surprise. The spread into other areas of the credit tighting does seem to be slow, though news along those lines seems to be quite regular, even if not getting reported much. I think the reason for the slow spread is anecdotal evidence that banks are taking a soft line on those getting into debt difficulties. How long will this continue?

I can't account for MrP's strong business showing, although it is not one of the first areas you might expect to see getting hit first, and some business sectors are still clearly doing well with the help of a weak £. You must be doing something right, MrP. Well done. But be careful. I can see the media changing tac and starting to run with the bad news and blaming Brexit as we run into summer, possibly helped by controversial politics and stronger £. I still think the underlying problem will be mostly excessive debt starting to weigh on those who have managed their finances badly, which will later be seen to include UK government.

[skinny] 28/2/2017 09:15

Good Morning.

Very sunny here after a nippy start.

A reasonable update from REDD.

Well done on the business front MrP.

[mrphil] 28/2/2017 08:55

Morning All.

Lovely sunny morning after a bit of an icy start. Should be Tuesday lunch on board today but we are alternating between that and tennis so it will be exercise instead which is no bad thing with it being pancake day!

Not counting chickens, but pleased to say the good business start to the year is continuing, with the order book now 50% up on last year YTD with plenty in the pipeline.

Not such a good start for the SIPP this morning, nothing major but a lot of small falls.