Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 05/6/2019 12:59

Surely someone can superimpose the two graphs on each other to see how much they are correlated?

[hpcg] 05/6/2019 12:28

I can see how he could distribute to Kent CC pension fund in specie, but not the retail holders. That seems to be the only way to keep the drip feed of sells from the market. I wonder whether he would get more auctioning these of selling into the market place? 170p at auction maybe, 150p? 190p isn't a compelling discount, hardly a discount at all given the optics for the next couple of years.

SpectoAcc - worthy thoughts on Mark Barnett's mirror funds. The holdings aren't as public as Woodfords, so somewhat difficult to tell if he is in the same dross across the board, but performance of the High Income fund in the last couple of years has not been good. It's heading towards parity with 5 years ago. If word gets out that he is a mini-me then redemptions should pick up. Irrespective investors should be running for the doors just on performance sight unseen on the components.

[chucko1] 05/6/2019 12:11

Not sure 50 grand is small for a Baronness. Staff and hairdressing can add up.

[eeza] 05/6/2019 12:06

Small buy from Baroness Ford

[chucko1] 05/6/2019 11:39

I’m as good as my word! Bought my first (post NW debacle) clip yesterday. I’m looking through the fog (though it’s bloody thick).

[fenners66] 05/6/2019 11:08

I did not mean that ALL the companies are basket cases - but that now his funds are tanking it means that the share price babies are getting thrown out with the bath water - ie his presence is now toxic

[fenners66] 05/6/2019 11:07

Wasn't he heavily into Carillion and Interserve , and a high yielding Stobart - until they decided to cut the dividend - I saw those coming and said so....

So why does a guy who can almost buy a seat on the board each time not see the obvious too ?

[spectoacc] 05/6/2019 09:43

@hpcg - and don't forget his mate Mark B is in most of the same stuff (including, it has to be said, NRR).

What happens when Woodford's forced selling knocks Barnett's funds even lower? Hmmm........ ;)

[hpcg] 05/6/2019 09:37

fenners - Woodford pumped up the price of many shares completely beyond realistic levels. It was something akin to VC funded up-rounds where holders invest new money at a higher nominal share price to plump up the value of their existing holding. RM2, PURP, ALM, CIR and on and on, including companies as large as IMB. That doesn't make every company he ever bought a basket case, though he is and was in plenty of over-geared value traps, but it did make for a false market in almost everything he invested in.

[spectoacc] 05/6/2019 09:37

@fenners66 - yes and no. There's some good businesses (I'd rate NRR as one - but I would say that) and yes, obvs the share price gets hammered when he has to sell out again. But the co is fine and the only thing it does for us long-term income seekers is to give us a good avg price.

But there's plenty of utter fiascos he invested in too - Northwest Bio, EVE, RM2, PFG, AA., KIE - he heinously averaged down KIE several times, only for it to fall off a cliff again on another p/w.

ALM, PURP, others in the 90% club, plenty of unlisted dross too.

[fenners66] 05/6/2019 09:27

So Woodford owned stocks really are turning into a disaster just because he invested heavily in them....

[nickname27] 04/6/2019 18:25

Thanks for the memories neil, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[eeza] 04/6/2019 17:26

And next XD on 20th.

[chucko1] 04/6/2019 16:58

So, just 12 more trading days to go and Woody is out of it!

So at 7p price retreat per day, that’s another 84p to go. I’ll average in with 113p as my low purchase. That would only be a 20% yield. Then back to 230p and we’re all laughing.

Simple, no?

[spectoacc] 04/6/2019 16:09

Woodford sold another 1.7% of NRR yesterday. To be fair, he's doing well getting it away! Over 20% still to go :(

[lord gnome] 04/6/2019 14:17

Finger was hovering over the Buy button this morning - but pulled it. FWIW I think the divi is reasonably safe - safe enough for it not to be a factor in a decision to purchase. I do however suspect that we haven't reached bottom just yet. I'm in no hurry.
Brexit
Retail aversion
Woodford factor
Reduced NAV
Broker downgrades
Five negatives is enough to make me think that we have further to travel

[spectoacc] 04/6/2019 13:37

Agreed re note, tho they'd have spoken to the co first so should have had a nudge.

WEIF is finished IMO, Woodford's holdings in everythig will get either liquidated (impossible in some cases) or more likely distributed in specie. So we've either got a short overhang on NRR, or a very long one.

But - we still get the yield! :)

[scrwal] 04/6/2019 13:34

Woodford may not necessarily be an issue as it is likely he will attempt to liquidate the unquoted and low yield equities he built up in WEIF before touching the "normal" holdings - hence the embargo to give him time to do this.

The Berenford view is confusing as it came out today after ( I think) the notification of the Asda sale which supports NRR moving from low yield items to hopefully higher yields - could be a case of unfortunate timing and may well be reversed sooner than later by Berenford.

[spectoacc] 04/6/2019 13:22

Yes, they're questioning whether divi can be covered as soon as the co is targeting.

I doubt we've actually seen any Woodford selling today, it could even take a few months IMO. Part of the reason for the "gating" is to allow it to be done in an orderly fashion, not at the whim of redemptions.

Mind you - anyone still in a Woodford fund deserves what they get. He publishes the full list of holdings and they're simply dreadful in many cases. He'd even averaged down KIE.

[scrwal] 04/6/2019 13:17

Price drop also partly due to Berenberg downgrade to hold.

[nickname27] 04/6/2019 12:42

I think unfortunately you have to buy this for the yield only. Most investors just see it says Commercial RE on the tin and and don't bother to look inside. The overwhelming narrative surrounding commercial RE is that bricks and mortar retail is dying (despite the rather obvious reality of many retailers doing fine) and foreign investors have long since fled brexit island shedding everything they owned.

This seems like a good well run company existing in a sustainable niche and I'd rather own this somewhat liquid asset than actual bricks and mortar as part of a diversified portfolio. However I don't have strong expectations for any imminent narrowing of the discount or significant pick up in the price. The dividend looks fairly safe to me in the short term though.

At some point I feel foreigners will come back into UK stocks and will notice something with such a hefty yield (though it's obviously well into red flag territory now) and at some point the retail apocalypse narrative will run its course, but I don't think either will be any time soon. Obviously the Woodford thing will have to unwind itself too and who knows how that will happen there. Perhaps some PE firm will look at 25% discount and rub their hands. Anything's possible I guess.

[chucko1] 04/6/2019 11:50

More blocks to follow?!?!

Hpcg, totally respect your view on this. However, I believe the dividend is largely sustainable, if not entirely so. And in the long term. They continue to make good returns on the development side.

If they can improve the yield on a property by 4% and assume that has a 10x multiplier, then that increases the value of a given property by 40% from purchase to sale. Assuming NRR achieve this to 5% of its portfolio per annum, that’s effectively a 2% increase in the portfolio yield. More than makes up for the temporary slightly uncovered dividend (from FFO). Today’s news (lost in the mist!!) further demonstrates this.

But in the short term, of course this can go lower. I am looking to buy on this weakness, but I have little idea where the bottom is! So I will do this slooooooooooooowly.

[cc2014] 04/6/2019 10:57

Price has stabilised at 95 but it seems to me enough volume has gone through to assume a block of shares has been placed at below this price.

[hpcg] 04/6/2019 10:08

chucko1 - not enough margin of safety yet anyway IMO. Yes, I do intend to buy back into Woodford induced weakness, but for me the dividend is not sustainable at this rate and the NAV will continue to shrink for at least a couple more years. It wouldn't surprise me if Woodford and or Invesco had been encouraging the high payout ratio anyway. I'll keep an eye on price action of course, at some point another institution steps in.