Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[konkel] 12/6/2019 17:49

While the current weakness may be technical (Woodford a forced seller) it can't hide the fact that retail is dying a painful death and therefore retail landlords are also up against it. Deep rental cuts are coming and that's if you're lucky enough to have a tenant at all. Another massive and obvious trend that NW has failed to spot regretably.

[cc2014] 12/6/2019 17:08

I was afraid of this. Woodford out selling today after not selling much Monday and Tuesday. You can see it across the rest of his stocks.

Looking at the trades though I can't see that he sold more than 500k today.

Not a good day generally for this sector.

[eeza] 12/6/2019 16:50

It has yet to go XD.

[cwa1] 12/6/2019 16:31

OK guys, somebody ring a bell when we hit bottom please...

[spectoacc] 12/6/2019 15:50

Millions and millions.

[cc2014] 12/6/2019 12:55

WIF has assets of around £500m and is still open, WEIF has assets of around £3.5b is suspended and WPCT is of little relevant to NRR as it's a completely different animal and you can sell your shares instantly on the market.

WIF's largest holding as at the last factsheet was NRR, which was 7% of the fund. I suggest the redemptions in WIF can't be that large as a)the fund has stayed open and b)we aren't seeing forced selling on NRR

In WEIF, NRR is the 20th biggest holding at 1.9% of the fund, the sort of level he could hold on to and a stock which fulfills his new mandate if he could sell the smaller less liquid and unquoted stuff. Of course he can't sell much of that at any speed so some NRR will have to go.

Millions of NRR for Woodford to shift yet...

[chucko1] 12/6/2019 12:37

Well, he HAD to say that. He has to speak of his intentions and to remain consistent across all media platforms. In the meantime, he can work out what to say when it turns out to be impossible.

[eeza] 12/6/2019 12:10

Well his 'strategy', reiterated again today, is to sell of the illiquid holdings and increase the liquid holdings.
But that flies in the face of reality, which is that he is selling his most liquid holdings to cover the redemptions in the other 2 funds.

[cc2014] 12/6/2019 10:49

Yeah -pretty clear from this morning trades that the seller wants 195. As far as I can see from the Woodford RNS's the last couple of days which have reduced to very few he's not in a hurry now to sell anything including NRR.

[chucko1] 11/6/2019 16:54

CC2014, I suspect a lot will trade around this price. Both buyer and seller appear content here, but let’s see what kind of volumes are reported.

[cc2014] 11/6/2019 16:41

Looks to me like there's a seller at 195 (probably Woodford) and there's some level of buying support below that around 193 (probably everybody trying to get in slightly below the big sellers exit price)

[shawzie] 11/6/2019 16:27

Substantial shareholdings
As at 7 June 2019, the Company has been advised under DTR5 by shareholders with holdings of more than 3% of the total voting rights of the Company as follows:
SHAREHOLDER NUMBER OF SHARES % HOLDING
Invesco 79,470,823. 26.0
Woodford Investment Management 45,492,833 14.9
St. James's Place 15,236,757 5.0
BlackRock 13,789,050. 4.5

[spectoacc] 11/6/2019 14:45

Personally I think the only solution is to scale in.

Mind you, I would say that, having started the "scale" much higher :)

[mridyard] 11/6/2019 14:33

I'm looking to take a position in New River REIT I like their business model. The problem is the stock is being shorted currently 7.6% and Woodford who has around 15% holding left may continue selling slowly to max out his receipts. So difficult to predict the bottom. Brokers are also predicting continued reduction in NAV by about 4% in next financial year. I also agree with other posters that a 15p dividend looks more sustainable long term which is still pretty good.

[spectoacc] 11/6/2019 14:28

That's true. Anyone looked at EPIC? What a weird one - decided to move into shopping centres etc as everyone else is moving out (figuratively and literally!). Yield not amazing but NAV discount starting to get more interesting.

[rcturner2] 11/6/2019 12:32

The trouble is there are plenty of other distressed REITs out there to have a look at.

RDI for one.

[eeza] 11/6/2019 10:27

Broker's price targets are worth less than a dead rat's todger.

[chucko1] 11/6/2019 10:11

They can’t have my shares there. Well, maybe a few if I’m feeling generous. This is all assuming it takes 3 to 5 years to get there and the retail headwinds have calmed significantly.

280p in, say, 4 years would represent about 87.5% total return, more with reinvestment (which would be significant).

[cc2014] 11/6/2019 09:48

Looking at the trades this morning it looks like someone continues to sell around 195 although they don't appear to be in any hurry.

Peel re-itterates buy this morning with price target of 280p. (which the market can have my shares at!)

[wskill] 11/6/2019 06:28

We have to return to 2012 when the share price was at this level dividend were 15p now 21.6p which is reasonably secure with the latest deal showing how it can be covered this year selling lower yielding investments and replacing them with ones with higher growth potential.

But are we at the bottom that is the most important question for me will buy more next month as am around 50% of my target holdings in nrr now.

[lord gnome] 10/6/2019 19:09

Well put Pyufak. That is a good summary of the bear 🐻 case.

[pyufak] 10/6/2019 18:31

Hi all, I've been watching this one for a while - I took it off my watchlist today. I hope it works for holders but post because I think counter arguments can be useful.

1. I feel the trend against the high street is here to stay and if anything accelerating from anecdotal evidence of my personal experience.

2. Woodford masks an underlying trend I dislike. Yes, his exit is weighing on the share price but it feels like it is accelerating weakness rather than been the root cause. There are many professional investment firms who will have taken deep dives into NRR and are choosing not to buy. The bid certainly seems very thin to the stock.

3. Personal finance is a passion and I have a network of friends and some family who are all active. They all own NRR as income plays - so I worry it has huge retail sponsorship and is a dividend trap.

4. Lastly, 10%+ I feel is justified for the risk you take here. UK recession / Brexit / further high street decline / leveraged fund - means I would be buying this hoping to get the dividend and not anticipating capital appreciation with time.

So I stay away and wish anyone holding this the best of luck

[essentialinvestor] 10/6/2019 17:36

My part of Surrey has been relatively insulated from retail closures until recently,
however it's far more noticeable over the last year or so.
In West Byfleet, a few miles from me, there is a small secondary retail development
where one unit after another appears empty. Now to be fair Woking, which is far larger town, is 3 miles from there.

[hpcg] 10/6/2019 17:27

I bought back half on Thursday and Friday. There is good support, at least on the book, in the mid 90s. We are all in the same boat here, want to pick up what we can at the best price possible. That means competition and FOMO. I'm more relaxed now in that I won't be missing out, so I probably want 185-187 now.

[chucko1] 10/6/2019 17:07

When is ex-div date?