Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 24/5/2019 16:23

You beat me to it Spec, interesting question as to whether Invesco can keep up with Woodford.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 16:21

Looks like Invesco took the 1% (again), RNS just out. Much cheaper than last time no doubt. Is a limit to what Mark Barnett can take.

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 13:49

Spectoacc, don’t say I’m not doing my bit!

Edit: if every family in the U.K. buys 2 shares, that would do it also.

[dragonsteeth] 24/5/2019 12:58

I had a look at Woodford’s holdings the other day . The IFF had 7.4% ofa £552 mill fund, £41mill and I used the “old” figure of £82mill in EIF . This gives £123mill worth . The RNS today’s says he has reduced to 22.3% of NRR which is roughly £147 mill. I don’t understand the difference, but it appears that he has 18% to 22% of NRR a significant holding.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 12:40

I'm sure we could club together.

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 11:49

Thanks for the updated numbers. So not 38mm - maybe only 31mm (1.8%, say, on £3.8bn). Easy peasy. What’s the fuss about?

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 11:28

Thanks @Mikey - mix of redemptions & performance I guess.

[mikeyfernandez] 24/5/2019 11:25

On Morningstar. It appears as tho the fund size has dropped to 3.8billion and that has happened in the last week or so!

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 11:23

@chucko1 - no longer 1.91%, nor £4.3bn, nor 38m shares, as per above ;)

IFF is mainly housebuilders (on premium to book, at top of help-to-buy, with a Corbyn govnt possible) & sub-prime lenders (x4). But at least it's "positioned".

Good point about eg NRR being sold out of WEIF, hitting the largest holding in IFF!

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 11:15

1.91% x £4.3bn = £82mm. Only 38mm shares to go!

I don’t mind IFF either (certainly relatively), but it’s still pretty property-intense and rather more U.K. intense than was originally signalled. Performance has not been good, partly, perhaps, suffering from some of its own holdings been hit by WEIF selling. It’s down 15% total return since inception. Not catastrophic. Terrible, yes.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 11:12

Thanks @Mikey - been looking for the redemption info on WEIF, where did you find it? £160m left in March, I thought less might leave in April due to new ISA season.

The "Woodfood brand" collapse may cause IFF to shrink too, but I don't see him dumping all that 22% total.

[mikeyfernandez] 24/5/2019 11:09

Woodfords equity income fund size dropped from 4.3 to 3.8 billion in the last couple of weeks and the fund price 109 to 101... 1.9% of 3.8 billion is about 72 million or about 11% of nrr. Surely more to be sold imminently!

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 10:44

Hpcg, I’m not saying you’re wrong on your call. I have quite a bunch of this that I am happy to own no matter what (absent of obvious mess, which simply is not present), but intend buying significantly more and so, I suppose, I’m being patient as well. The NW headwind worries me rather more than the perception of retail weakness (misunderstood on this stock, to a significant extent).

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 10:38

This is just a disaster, of course, for NW. (a bigger one even than that of T May?!?).

So, if it is the case that he’s selling into the market, we have a clear idea for the fall beyond what were average results. I’m glad that is the case although this pressure could exist for a long while, especially if my theory about a market placement is not correct.

[hpcg] 24/5/2019 10:32

Still 22% to go for Mr W.

Chucko1 - trading low vol instruments is very difficult; one needs a will of iron not to come back in too soon, or worse higher. It is for that reason I have set my buy back bar low, because even if I stray it will still have been a worthwhile delta.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 10:27

Woodford has sold another 1%, just RNS'd.

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 10:19

I cannot rely on timing exit and entry, though might trade a small amount for fun if fear or greed is clearly present (in others!).

From many of the credible posts on boards like this, I don’t see much success in doing so for others, either! Especially after costs which likely average about 1% (including stamp duty).

That said, NRR might prove to be an exception if the share price takes a Woodford induced clobbering at some stage. I don’t think he could realistically sell into the market - a series of offers or placements in some form might be required. But that’s event risk, not really a comment on the business. On that score, I have held off buying more.

[dragonsteeth] 24/5/2019 09:59

Some interesting comments about overtrading, something I’ve noticed in similar REITs like RGL, AEWU. It intrigues me as it’s not something (trade frequently) that i do well , but understand the philosophy so I only use it on ITs I think I know well like SLI.
Chucko1, re your comments about foregoing the divi when you’re out, I tend to think the opposite . If you time it right , share price movements being equal etc, you may buy in and hold for 10 months while receiving a full 12 months dividend, so increasing your yield in those 10 months
P.S. not in NRR, but it’s high on my Watchlist.

[hpcg] 24/5/2019 09:13

Chucko1 - yes, but NRR is not my only opportunity. Indeed, as you know, it is far from the only opportunity in UK REITs. Look through the external returns, the share price and the dividends, to the internal returns, the rent roll and the net book value. Why do I want to own assets that are depreciating, income declining and debt increasing? Half the valid answers ultimately boil down to those trends stopping and then reversing. The other half is that irrespective of those trends the discount is so large that the terminal value is well into the black. Neither of these are yet the case.

Or another look, FFO / EV is 5% (EV / EBITDA is 6.5%, ROCE 2.8%, ROE 2.17%). This is not a high quality business, but I can live with it if it is a stable business but right now it isn't.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 08:39

A good read @chucko1, and largely agree but for the divi comment - as long as careful of the XD dates, can trade around them (indeed, take advantage of them occasionally).

But yes - most of us, certainly including me, chronically over-trade.

Buy value, and don't be Woodford.

[hpcg] 23/5/2019 18:26

SpectoAcc - Yes, I'm not predicting 190 will happen, more where I'd like to be buying back, at least to the position it was at before, which was 10% of my portfolio. I think it will ease down because of the NAV drop, so in some ways I have freedom to buy at any lower price.

[steve3sandal] 23/5/2019 17:52

Dipped a toe in Jan 19, with intention to learn more and top up to usual size but I was quite surprised at the Woodford selling and now I didn’t like this morning’s words or figures. Managing assets third party/JV and halving capital commitments OK, but the devaluation was quite significant despite being at the value end, household name tenants, management view on their defensiveness etc. Hpcg comment insightful to me and summarises my New New River plan. Sold. Good luck all, But NRR on my watchlist now and I’ll try to find high yield somewhere else.

[spectoacc] 23/5/2019 14:08

I think the move into JVs and management of the estates of others is going to provide a third earnings stream, after the development gains (eg the co-ops) and rentals (which have become more pub-orientated). The shopping centres are going to struggle less than the legacy estates of others, but I agree write-downs there will likely continue. But they're far from all the business is about.

The divi was raised this year, and they plan to hold it next year while they build up the cover, so can't see why they'd cut. Lower earnings more about an absence of development gains falling in the financial year. But yes - a 6.4% fall in NAV is disappointing.

Suspect you'd have to see a Woodford forced sale to get to 190p again, bearing in mind he flogged some in the 240's recently. Or quite a few more -100 FTSE days.