Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[ramellous] 04/6/2019 09:52

Firesale, nice top up this am, averaging down nicely for an 11% yield.

[cc2014] 04/6/2019 09:04

Sorry for all holders today. I remain watching from the sidelines on the assumption that WEIF gateway is going to remain in place for longer than 28 days and it's over now for the fund. I see some form of planned run-down in an attempt to crystallise value for it.

I don't know but see a possibility of another gap down for NRR. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't, but somehow Woodford has to sell some of his holdings and he'll have to let them go for less than market value. Where that is who knows.

[chucko1] 04/6/2019 08:46

I suppose we must just enjoy the yield as the carnage for Woodford unfolds. But has no effect on this share in the medium term.

[eeza] 04/6/2019 08:19

Just as well there was good news with the RNS'd sale of property this morning, or it could have fell hard.

[spectoacc] 04/6/2019 08:13

Can't see Woodford not being a forced seller now - and Ivesco are reaching the 29.9% ceiling. At best, an in specie transfer to WEIF redeemers.

[chucko1] 03/6/2019 23:29

It’s already at a 20% discount to NAV so any liquidation by Woodford likely represents the best entry point you may ever see on this. Depends on how messy it gets, I suppose.

[the bug] 03/6/2019 23:13

Will Woodford be selling off big time now? The suspension of his Equity fund will spook investors holding the Income Focus fund.

[nickname27] 03/6/2019 17:53

Woodford is killing this with kindness I think.

[hugepants] 03/6/2019 09:40

Anyone know what the convenant headroom is? All I can find is they are "well within". But Intu and HMSO also say that and they are trading at 60% NAV discounts!
Peel Hunt have forecast NAV of 244p for next year.


Investors Chronicle (HOLD)
By Emma Powell

NewRiver Reit (NRR) chief executive Allan Lockhart hopes that focusing on discount and convenience retailers will insulate it from the broader gloom impacting the sector. However, an £89m devaluation in its investment properties meant the Reit swung to a loss last year.
...
...
Broker Peel Hunt has downgraded its underlying March 2020 NAV forecast from 254p to 244p (against 261p at the end of 2019).

[topvest] 27/5/2019 19:14

Looks like Woodford is selling a few and Invesco buying. Invesco must be enjoying themselves!

[essentialinvestor] 26/5/2019 12:20

Without wishing to bring politics in to this,
worth keeping in mind the two leading contenders to
be the country's next PM, have unequivocally stated the UK will leave without
a deal, if necessary, come 31 October - a few days over 5 months away.

At the very least. that means a short term economic shock.
Notice LAND has given up multi month gains within a couple of weeks.

[hugepants] 26/5/2019 12:10

From the final results of NRR and INTU


NRR: "...Like-for-like footfall across shopping centres declined -2.4%;" (y/e Mar19)

INTU: "...footfall decreased by 1.6 per cent " (y/e Dec18)


I hold some NRR because of the the yield and NAV discount however I'm not convinced by the upbeat management speak. They seem to think because they have "community" shopping centres they are more or less immmune but that looks more than a tad over optimistic. 57% of the portfolio by value is shopping centres.

I dont hold INTU currently but maybe worth noting they own most of their shopping centres as freeholds so they can look at alternative use if things get really bad.

[spectoacc] 25/5/2019 20:33

Agreed re INTU, CAL, HMSO etc. INTU is really interesting, with Whitaker's large loaned-against stake. Going to be fireworks there IMO.

However, may take a while - if the debt-holders take over the likes of INTU, they won't have any incentive to cut rents etc until renewals, which could be years away.

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2019 13:01

Hp, would tend to agree with that view.
Notice HLCL exited retail, as per usual very nicely timed.
Interestingly they have now also exited the warehouse sector.

[hpcg] 25/5/2019 11:31

For what its worth I think that the move to tertiary locations is still too soon and that also triggered me to sell. No way has there been a blow out bottom yet. My signal would be liquidation of INTU and a reset of debt and equity values, the latter being worth zero, but debt also takes a haircut. Rents can then be rebased, like cut in half, and high street becomes better than cost competitive with delivery, which is the rational way round. Internet suppliers will always have better data on sales and stock control and can comfortably run more SKUs. A new INTU would be very attractive IMO, assuming debt takes the appropriate haircut.

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 22:10

Well, if alternative use is viable at current NAV minus 10%, but the share price is at a lower value than even this level, you’ve got good management, alternative income streams being developed and development profits yet to flow though, it seems the only thing to be cautious of is a lunatic seller on the loose.

And Woodford.

[grahamburn] 24/5/2019 20:16

Interesting take on the current state of the property market in The Times Business Commentary today - with specific mention of the new joint venture.
__________________________

The shop floor

Retail landlords are capable of optimistic doublethink. Take the sniffy reaction to Sir Philip Green’s offer of equity in his tottering Arcadia group if they agree to rent reductions. They don’t fancy shares in one of the nation’s biggest clothing retailers. But at the same time they still think there is huge value in their freeholds, value that depends on the likes of Arcadia surviving and prospering once more. Something doesn’t quite add up.

Still, it’s not all gloom, especially in the world of no-frills shopping centres. Values have fallen so far that some brave investors think there is now value in these assets. Pimco is taking a punt that shoppers from Inverness to the Isle of Wight have not entirely defected to online shopping and will still set foot in a traditional shopping centre. The idea is to scale up a new joint venture with New River, the real estate investment trust, from an initial £60 million to £500 million.

Property values at New River have fallen so far that they are now only 10 per cent above alternative use levels — the point at which it makes commercial sense to bulldoze them to make way for homes, leisure premises, hotels or doctor’s surgeries. That starts to be a supportive floor for valuations.

International investors are scenting potential value. Twelve Sainsbury stores were bought by Realty Income Corp of the US this month. Private equity groups Blackstone and Fortress are rumoured to be taking a look at UK retail property. Net investment in all commercial property by overseas buyers was sharply up in April.

It would be a brave soul to call the bottom for retail property, but there are glimmers.

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 19:26

Eeza, I suspect that the sales of IMB have been rapid - I had not noticed how large recent redemptions had been.

If the redemptions keep up at this pace, or anything like it, he will be forced to sell the builders which will not be as liquid as IMB. That could start getting messy.

[eeza] 24/5/2019 16:47

Woodford also been selling IMB.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 16:46

Might be out of date, but looks like 4.8% on WHR (so yes), with Barnett already at 29.5%.

Can't see that he does on RGL but then I think that's in the much smaller IFF, not WEIF.

As usual, he's forced to sell the things he should be keeping. No one wants most of his junk, & the unlisteds in particular.

(Which reminds me - he had to force a float out of AJBell I believe, and sold out. It's done very well since).

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 16:43

Maybe he sold 0.07%, saw the share price collapse (it did earlier in the week), and begged Barnett to help. Hoping he will not have to sell again.

We’ve also seen sharpish falls in WHR and RGL - two more NW holdings. Does he have notifiable levels on each of those?

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 16:38

I'm not sure it's a direct trade this time, not least because Woodford sold 1.05%, and Barnett bought 0.98%.

[chucko1] 24/5/2019 16:36

So that is not good news. We still likely do not know what effect direct market selling will have. Unless Woodford intends finding other funds with an interest once Barnett is maxed out.

Good to see Barnett still believes, apparently.

[spectoacc] 24/5/2019 16:31

Can't see him going over the 29.99%, so less than 4% to go. Wonder what else Woodford is having to sell, and just how bad the redemptions are. One thing we do know - the performance of WEIF continues to be dire.

[hpcg] 24/5/2019 16:23

You beat me to it Spec, interesting question as to whether Invesco can keep up with Woodford.