Newriver Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 17/12/2018 09:18

d) Debt repayment, after recent all-time lows in the savings ratio

Just remember - NRR is turning into a pubco ;)

[cc2014] 17/12/2018 08:59

yeah, but where is all the money going? For the first time in years we have wage rises at nearly 1% higher than inflation (and employment is still growing)

Either
a) it's being saved (possible, given uncertainty around Brexit but we know British consumers love to spend)
b) it's being spent on leisure (Possible, but the number of restaurants closing doesn't suggest this)
c) We've all worked out it Black Friday wasn't really a sale and it will be cheaper after Christmas (possible but wouldn't account for it all)

[fenners66] 17/12/2018 08:47

Bloomberg has just referred to a "retail apocalypse"

[mikeyfernandez] 13/12/2018 12:47

Ha cheers andy, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and again..... Well done on getting in at near the bottom there. Always nice when that happens. For me I don't know what this may do at the start of the new year with potentially more political uncertainty on the way. I'm thinking the only way out of this stalemate may well end up being a referendum, but who knows. Long term I think these will be fine, so I'm just going to try and buy the dips, get my average down and hold. I like what they are doing to diversify into the pub game and offloading units. They are not afraid to make some moves and seem to be one or two steps ahead of the others, which bodes well for the next couple of years of possibly rough waters. So long as they stay patient and don't try and push it too aggressively, they should be ok.

[tim1478] 13/12/2018 11:41

This share is now really interesting. I only have a tiny holding now as I have sold some. If their strategy comes off, it is amazing value. If the financial deterioration noted in the last report accelerates,they will have to reduce the payout and the share price will be toast. I had wanted to short at 258 but IG would not take any now short positions. The next two report will be crucial.

[andyj] 12/12/2018 23:15

You were absolutely right. Having watched these for two years and finally deciding to buy at 2.09, I hope it is more than a minor bounce.

[mikeyfernandez] 11/12/2018 10:37

Think this may bounce a little now into the end of the year, as uncertainty can't get much higher barring a change of leadership/general election and as potential for new referendum climbs, plus dividend in few weeks

[spectoacc] 10/12/2018 16:43

@hpcg - more bankruptcies seem a racing certainty. Warm weather has done for the winter collections, Brexit uber-uncertainty at exactly the wrong moment, and as we've been saying for a while - the loss of a few causes the rest to lose footfall, not gain trade. I bet most get through Xmas but can't meet the March rent bill.

On the plus side - NRR seems to be becoming a pubco ;)

[spectoacc] 10/12/2018 15:28

It's a fair point, though some will be in closed periods. Also seems to take them a while, and no doubt some will be in our situation - not a lot of spare money. And no doubt delighted if their next set of options gets set around current levels.

Not saying NRR is a dead cert of course - just that these falls aren't stock- or even sector-specific. Do fancy the winners to do well over time tho - just got to avoid the eg Interserves, Thomas Cooks etc. In fairness, perhaps safer with a BLND or LAND.

Plenty out there are still over-priced too.

[essentialinvestor] 10/12/2018 15:12

Spec, I notice very few sector director buys atm.
Appreciate it's easy to read too much in to this,
but they're conspicuous by their absence atm.
Land, Blnd, Hmso ..etc

[spectoacc] 10/12/2018 15:09

Getting near that £2... As usual in these situations, suddenly inundated with seeming bargains, whilst already mostly invested :)

[mikeyfernandez] 08/12/2018 23:24

Cheers for that specto.... must have missed that point! This vote on tuesday will be a no, so will be interesting how markets react to that, but a lot must be priced in already.

[spectoacc] 08/12/2018 15:42

@Mikey - he had to sell AJBell due to a limitation on unlisted holdings. ie the more the listed stuff has tanked, the higher % the unlisted ones have become.

[mikeyfernandez] 08/12/2018 10:06

hxxps://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/invesco-set-for-127m-aj-bell-payday-as-woodford-misses-out/a1181232?sectorID=2705

Was forced to sell some AJ Bell earlier in year at probably half the price now which shows some of issues faces! As of the end of October he still holds approx quarter of the company, with 3% in 5 bill equity income fund and just under 5% in income focus.

[spectoacc] 08/12/2018 07:58

I don't think Woodford's selling down, not least because of the lack of RNS's. May be wrong, but assuming I'm not, that means the large potential source of selling pressure hasn't even started yet (if it starts at all).

[hpcg] 08/12/2018 00:10

Had a look back at what I had posted before:

hpcg15 Aug '18 - 09:38 - 548 of 814 Edit
0 0 0
I wouldn't rule out Woodford selling as the source of the downward pressure. Both income focus and equity income funds have holdings. This was apparently the case with PSDL recently. I'm more positive on the estate and their strategy having looked more closely. Whilst I have bought some I do anticipate that the price to go down, and especially so if there is a seller. The most compelling reason to sell IMO is the Sterling exposure, and the NAV and income is relatively well underpinned. 225-230p my next buy point.

So, wrong I'm not buying / didn't buy at 225. Also, not sure how many times I can wheel out Woodford as a seller. I sold soon after actually, because my incoherent nonsense about buying even though anticipating downside was worthless commentary. That was only a few months ago too. 2011 has 177 on the chart; all I can say is I will buy at the lowest price point I can.

[mikeyfernandez] 07/12/2018 23:35

76 pubs for £12 million seems like good business to me.... Just checked on a freehold pubs for sale website and a price of £157k would put you 46th out of 690 of the cheapest freeholds for sale on that site. Considering that is the average price I would consider this another shrewd bit of business, especially when considering they just sold 22 pubs for 14.8 million. I'm no publican, but that sounds like a good head..... mmmmm

[salchow] 07/12/2018 22:37

With regard to the chart it is showing an accelerating downward move which can be a trend ending characteristic. Of course, one would want to see the price steady and some buying come in. I think we would also need to see the main markets start to find support. The selling to me seems overdone but you would need to be a gambler to jump in right now.

[mikeyfernandez] 07/12/2018 20:41

Hpcg,

How low do you think this could go in response to a market crash and woodford wiped out? At whatever level that is low £1 something, it would represent value and would not stay there for long. In the mean time the yield is high. Short term choppy waters, long term good entry points - pick the bottom if you can, but so long as the management don't go too gung ho and keep recycling these units then I wouldn't be too worried. My average is above £3 for what it is worth!

[mikeyfernandez] 07/12/2018 20:33

Thank you for your response fenners66

How many units being let out rent free can there really be? There are costs to moving a shop down the road as well. Ultimately if shops aren't used they will be changed into another use - either residential or another up and coming industry like experiences/gyms etc. If less people use pubs, you sell the pub for residential or another business. Surely much of this fear within retail is built into the price already. The nav is down 25% as it is. Yes there may be an economic downturn around the corner, but these things comes around. Don't worry resistance coming at £2 and then Brexit nonsense will be sorted out soon. Life's too short to worry about bookies not making money ;)

[hpcg] 07/12/2018 20:24

Mikeyfernandez7 Dec '18 - 15:30 - 804 of 809
0 2 0
Fenners66, I’m very much for reasoned debate, but every single post you write about nrr has a negative slant. Just an observation.

Mine too, because I can read a chart. The idea is to make money; there are no prizes for positivity.

I would think Woodford is selling down; there is overwhelming selling pressure. As the company is not going bankrupt at some point this will go too far, but when that is I don't know. Holders and buyers would already say it has gone to far, but for me I can see much deeper value / margin of safety to be had yet. With US markets doing what they are I can just see the kind of selling momentum from open ended and etfs, latter prob not pertinent to NRR, to cause exactly that. Possibly the bigger issue will be whether NRR is even the best value.

Conceptually - Woodford gets wiped out, he becomes a busted flush, even HL have to stop promoting him, what price do his small and mid-size portfolio companies go down to?

[fenners66] 07/12/2018 19:02

gorilla - thanks for the clarification

We have debated on here their style of portfolio and the possibility that it is insulated from vacancies by being at the lower end.

However; I put this point forward months ago;there is no immunity to sentiment that has a lot to do with driving share price movements and perhaps more importantly when all around properties are falling empty then there will be pressure on the market for all retail property.

It is simple supply and demand - if there are empty shops elsewhere - possibly rent free with just business rates paid sooner or later businesses will demand a rent cut or move.

The counter argument is that the good locations will not move - but surely we have had that debunked already with the move of major retailers from High Streets to out of town.

Sooner or later money talks - I believe it will be the "market rent" which will fall - just the same as the market price for houses - we all understand house prices - they move in tandem and it does not matter if you have the best house in the street it is still likely to decline in price when the rest do.

Mickeyfernandez "but every single post you write about nrr has a negative slant"
I agree they have - for about a year I would guess.
Negative about the prospects for retail property but that's the market.

I have mostly been motivated to post the contrary view to a lot of posts on here as above - but this is just the way I have seen the retail market moving.

If I am wrong - that is as much about sentiment as specific NRR - then why are the shares heavily down since I threw my 6p in ?

As I said a long time ago I put these on my watch list for yield and they continue to pay a dividend so the yield climbs higher - but the share price decline has far outweighed it.

I think we have to see where these are when we finally reach a retail property bottom.... but will we even know when that is ?


To explain the line about bookies and FOBT.

There are an awful lot of small retail high street bookies - whose profit is based upon FOBT - the takeover of Ladbrooks by GVC gained many of these but after the stake change the idea is that they can exit a lot of the leases in the next few years.

If you remove a lot of bookmakers from the High street and after all the stake limits do not apply online - then who is going to fill the estates of empty shops ?

[gorilla36] 07/12/2018 17:59

fenners66 - Just clarify my point re sector, I meant the "budget end" or "convenience" end of the retail sector. I agree that retail per se is in trouble, but there will always be a requirement for some bricks and mortar, it can't or rather won't all be done on amazon. The management here have a terrific track record, that cuts the mustard with me big time. I have had years and years of good divis from NRR. I'm out from about £2.60 but am looking to get back in. I believe it will turn in due course.

[speedsgh] 07/12/2018 17:53

The Gym opens at the Broadway Shopping Centre, Bexleyheath (5/12/18) -

NewRiver is pleased to announce the opening of The Gym at the Broadway Shopping Centre, Bexleyheath. The Gym will operate from a new 12,900 sq ft unit created by converting a previously vacant storage area on the second floor of the shopping centre, and will be accessible 24 hours a day.

The Gym was founded in 2007 and is now one of the largest low-cost gym brands in the UK, operating over 150 gyms across the country, and this opening marks its first gym in the NewRiver portfolio. Low-cost gyms represent one of the fastest growing sub-sectors of the UK retail and leisure market, with three operators – The Gym, Snap Fitness and PureGym – amongst the top 25 fastest expanding brands by net outlet openings over the past year, according to data from the Local Data Company. NewRiver has gyms across eight other sites in its portfolio and, with conveniently-located assets in the heart of communities throughout the UK, is well-positioned to benefit further from the continued growth of the low-cost gyms sub-sector.

Stuart Mitchell, Director, NewRiver, said: “We are delighted to be welcoming The Gym to Bexleyheath, providing greater choice and convenience for the local community. Our active approach to asset management has seen us convert a previously vacant area used for storage back into rentable space, and deliver a 12,900 sq ft unit to a best-in class operator in line with its specifications, on time and below budget.”

Oliver Tester, Acquisitions Director, The Gym Group, said: “We are very pleased to be opening our latest gym at the Broadway Shopping Centre, bringing our flexible, affordable brand of fitness to the people of Bexleyheath. We believe the quality and fit-out of our new sites are a stand out feature in the marketplace, and NewRiver has been a valued partner in helping us deliver on our vision for this space.”