Neuropharm Share Discussion Threads

[ihavenoclue] 19/1/2010 09:13

PJ have now reduced their second short slightly ... perhaps they feel the bottom has been reached ?

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 15:28

The problem is that currently they only have about £5m in the bank and from this they need to over admin costs of circa £270k per month. Hence the need to raise cash or find a suitor.

[lqs] 18/1/2010 15:24

The phase 3 trial is to only cost only £5M. If its a success NPH have a billion dollar drug on their hands. The company is worth multiple of this price. Great opportunity.

[boobly] 18/1/2010 14:32

Arc :......Thanks again . Respect your views .

[arc2006] 18/1/2010 14:19

Hi Boobly. I have not knowledge outside of what is in the public domain and some comments by a friend who works in the industry. He bascially hears a few things here and there about who turns up where and what they may be doing. Nothing particularly significant.

To address your points

1. I don't thing the position is revised. The stated discussions with an "expanded" number of parties. So that could include partners and straight funders.

2. Personally, because they have belief in the techncial possiblities which is probably supported by the number of bigger pharmas who have shown an interest. This may not be enough to secure the money, but the alternatives to the company are to be swallowed up and it is likely then, everyone will be out of a job.

3. Nothing is certain with regard to a final phase 3, but I haven't seen any evidence which suggests the main compound couldn't be brought to market. It's all about who will take it there and who will get the glory and ultimately the profit.

Having said all this, I totally agree the BoD are completely inept when it comes to us shareholders. The PJ conflict of interest is quite ridiculous for starters. However, I think for those they came on board after the failure of of the inital Phase 3 trial, then there really is nothing that has changed. Yes a manipulated TO price would be a kick in the teeth, but i see so many other scenarios here where we will eventually reap the benefits. It's just a pain having to wait so long to know what's really going on.

[boobly] 18/1/2010 13:52

Arc :.....I`ve been asking THAT question for several weeks !
Q : How much HAVE they spent ?
A : We just don`t know !
Sometimes , these assets just get frittered away as the `Offer Period` drags on .
That is a major concern to me .

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 13:49

Net off creditors/debtors, I would say circa £4.6m at month end.

[arc2006] 18/1/2010 13:47

What are we thinking the cash is then? I thought we had around 18p per share based on 7million as of June 2009 and all operations ceased. Since then. Only thing being spent is salaries and travel i guess? So 5.5m remaining seems reasonable.

[boobly] 18/1/2010 13:39

Arc :.....Thank you for those comments , and a perfectly reasonable interpretation of what might be going on . In fact your summary is so believable I could be convinced that it has come straight from the `Horse`s Mouth` . IF that is the case three points :
1. The board are being less than honest by not sharing this revised position with all shareholders .
2. After all this time , what makes the Board think they CAN get further funding , let alone the magnitude of funding required to successfully drive the projects .
3. Even IF they get the appropriate funds secured (At a sensible rate), have they , THIS time , got the expertise to realise the scientific breakthrough to persue the original business objectives .
From your comments it looks as if they would not be able to persuade the Major shaeholders to continue . That brings me back to my earlier point regarding the possibility of `Someone` wishing to take control of the assets and the cash at an artificially discounted price .
We deserve further clarity from this BoD . imho .

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 13:28

Well 15p would be a decent premium to the cash and current market value of the company, so whilst not a high price I would not imagine that they would get more than 20p, as their bargaining power is limited. At this stage they cannot afford to fund the required phase III trial and so the lead project has been mothballed pending a take over or a placing.

[ihavenoclue] 18/1/2010 13:20

15p ? I would hope for more than that otherwise the RNS mentioning gaining the most shareholder value, when this was close to 40p, is nothing short of criminal

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 12:54

That makes sense to me, as IMO they would need to raise circa £5m as that is the cost of the new phase III trial, leaving them with adequate working capital from the cash on hand. A placing though would most likely get away around the 5-6p mark. Hence existing shareholders would no doubt prefer a cash offer at say 15p than be left with a heavily diluted holding at a lower price and the uncertainty that the new phase III trial may still not be positive.

[arc2006] 18/1/2010 12:38

Hi everyone. By way of update, this is my understanding of the current situation. Notwithstanding the current shareprice..... The company is still actively seeking funding themselves, to take things forward independently. This perhaps is contrary to what some of the major shareholders want (ie to sell the company) and this could be the reason for the lock down in communications. Should an independent route not be possible, then I believe that there are a number of suitors lining up who would be interested in a full TO but as yet NPH have not given them the green light. The recent RNS diclosing their desire to sell the company was to get the ball rolling and in some way appease the major shareholders. As I said, this is my own personal understanding of the current situation. Please DYOR.

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 12:30

A pure guess would be an offer at 15p, whereas you might more reasonably expect it to approach 20p. However, cash is king and the NPH board are between a rock and a hard place.

[boobly] 18/1/2010 12:21

Yet again today I regard the trades , and the prices at which they were executed , as `Strange` in the context of their effect on the price of the stock , and , in the context of PIP`s short position .
If I didn`t know better , (and I don`t!) I would believe that this stock has been (dishonestly ? fraudulently ?) manipulated to facilitate a cheap takeover , at a price that grossly undervalues the true worth of the Company`s cash and assets . The steady decline of the share price , during a `Sale period` looks highly suspicious .
In these circumstances I would expect the Board of Directors to provide much more clarity about their efforts to realise value for ALL shareholders . If I were one of the Major %age shareholders in this Company , I would be creating a LOT of noise about the current valuation ....
WHY are they not doing that ?
We will eventually see an outcome that will either dispel totally these concerns , OR , a situation that will require serious investigation .

[joeblogg2] 18/1/2010 11:45

ihave. I have just telephoned NPH voicing my concerns and as usual they are in a meeeting!!!

[ihavenoclue] 18/1/2010 11:18

Just sent a message to NPH telling them I would be informing the FSA of the situation so they can look into it.

[ihavenoclue] 18/1/2010 11:15

Piper Jaffrey have increased their short by 20k shares

[ihavenoclue] 18/1/2010 11:14

Can buy at 10.2p with mid at 10p .. not sure where you get a wide spread from when this has had a spread of 3 - 4p in the past

[joeblogg2] 18/1/2010 10:49

Well this is sickening !! Looks like ICX/Piper Jafrey is coming to haunt me here as well :((

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 10:49

Can buy at 10.4p but even so the spread is way too wide at present.

[the_beagle] 18/1/2010 10:38

£1000 of net sells has knocked £300k or 10% off the market cap. F...ing wonderful!

[mike111d] 18/1/2010 10:37

By my calculations they will have circa £4.6m net cash at the end of this month, working back from the £7m held 30/6/09 and assuming constant admin costs and no R&D or S&M spend.

So at current levels it is not worth a punt for the cash value but only on the basis that a deal can be struck.

[the_beagle] 18/1/2010 10:30

This ain't funny. My £22k investment is now down to £9k. If I had a really hot option, which I don't, I think I would jump ship now. The lack of news, and share price support, is very worrying.