Neuropharm Share Discussion Threads

[mike111d] 04/1/2010 20:19

By my calculations assuming that R&D spending has in essence been on hold since year end, which in real terms it should have been since NPL-2008 accounted for 90% of the spend in 2008/09, then with £7m cash at year end and allowing for no increase in admin costs they are probably sat on circa £4.6m in cash as of January 2010. So if an offer was made at a premium of 50% to cash value then you would be looking at roughly £7m or 22p per share.

So if they can get a deal on these terms at current prices this is worth a punt but if not they cannot get past go as the revised NPL-2008 trials alone at £5m exceed current resources, without leaving anything to cover overheads.

I think that I will watch from the sidelines for the coming days and see how the price holds up. It is interesting though, as I could see this fitting into the portfolio of another company who potentially could move things forwards.

[boobly] 04/1/2010 19:39

IHNC :....Are you still on board with your SB ?

[boobly] 04/1/2010 19:35

Jotoha2 :..................

Well if that were the case :
1. They`ve collectively made about enough for a night out at the local Indian restaurant . Just take a quick look at volumes on the intraday charts .
2. We will be enjoying the return trip as they close out their positions .

NO , That`s not what I was suggesting .

[jotoha2] 04/1/2010 19:14

Boobly, all those investors have been helping to short this dog , so they are not to worried if it goes to zero , thats how they come out smelling of roses , going long or short , easy peasy .

[mike111d] 04/1/2010 19:09

Personally, I have a good deal of respect for Ken Mulvany and I guess when it comes down to it he has done right by his shareholders with the MPM acquisition.

[boobly] 04/1/2010 19:05

What the hell do this lot think of the current valuation ?........

Dr Mike Hudson 1 3,940,000 12.49%
Dr Mike Snape 3,440,000 10.91%
Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Limited 3,033,062 9.62%
Schroder Investment Management Limited 2,900,000 9.20%
Cazenove Capital Management Limited 2,673,538 8.48%
Professor Sir Chris T Evans 2,458,111 7.79%
Mount Sinai School of Medicine 1,480,000 4.69%
Barclayshare Nominees Limited 1,306,363 4.14%

Directors may well be looking after their own interests , but they`ve got several disparate entities to convince that selling this for cash value is a good deal .
If they manage to pull that one off , how do they explain their lack of recognisible achievements over the years ? That being the case , what on earth would persuade any potential purchaser of the business to continue to employ them ?
I can only think of one reason .

[the_beagle] 04/1/2010 17:20

HP....Similar in many ways. A 45% premium to today's price would give a cash bid of about 17-18p per share. As a 24p holder I would obviously like more, but just at the moment to get out at that level would be well received.

[hugepants] 04/1/2010 16:26

Minster Pharma (MPM) are in the same boat as NPH and they have just announced they've been bought for 6p. They had 8.5p net cash per share last results and Id estimate they should have about 7p cash now. I hope NPH can get a better deal than that for shareholders (you'd hope a potential phase III trial adds value) .

[lombiff] 04/1/2010 16:04

Boobly - price action is strange today and, I suppose, slightly worrying. Maybe there's a delayed sell out there . . . time will tell.

[lombiff] 04/1/2010 15:56

Joe - I agree with that - I'm happy to support NPH on the basis that we are trying to address autism, OCD and fragile X, but would obviously like to make money along the way!

[pelleeds1980] 04/1/2010 15:44

I did average down last week should have waited!

[boobly] 04/1/2010 15:42

Pelleeds:.....

Pleased to hear that , I think mine are a `Little Moist` :>(

[the_beagle] 04/1/2010 15:41

Lombiff....Where would we be without you??!!

[pelleeds1980] 04/1/2010 15:34

I did think after the event about close period - frustrating to watch but pants still dry here!

[boobly] 04/1/2010 15:32

pelleeds :.....I think you mean :
4 Jan'10 - 15:19 - 2729 of 2731

` Management SHOULD HAVE dipped into their pockets here `

They can`t now .

Lombiff:......Thanks for clarifying that buy , very strange that we`ve been marked down on today`s trades .

[joeblogg2] 04/1/2010 15:26

lomb, I have topped up enough and my average is about 18p now. I am surprised with the problems of autism, this should be moving higher and not lower!!

[lombiff] 04/1/2010 15:20

Joe - when (?) the bid arrives, we'll either be offered cash for our shares to take it private, or shares in a bigger company (which would hopefully have more liquidity). It's only going to cost if you need the funds now.

As far as I'm concerned, at times like this, you either have to look away for a few weeks or treat it as a top-up opportunity. I may be reckless, but I'm going with the latter, and just got another 30K at 11.5p.

All the best

[pelleeds1980] 04/1/2010 15:19

Management need to dip into their pockets here

[joeblogg2] 04/1/2010 14:53

Looks like this share is going to cost me dearly like ICX down over 15k now and have 200k shares which would be impossible to get rid off now :((

[the_beagle] 04/1/2010 14:42

20k at 11p is the reason why, I fear. And I do fear!

[boobly] 04/1/2010 13:19

That`s my point :
15159 more Buys than Sells today , and I think that IS correct ( although we don`t know what`s in the pipe line ), yet we`re down , again .

[the_beagle] 04/1/2010 13:09

Who's bought those then? Looking a little better.

[lombiff] 04/1/2010 10:41

Beagle - hmmmm - straws and clutching spring to mind - I doubt if much has happened over the last couple of weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised to have an update towards the end of January. Unfortunately, we have no clues for now - I would look out for an increase in volume (won't be difficult to spot) during one day and then expect an RNS the following morning (typical leaky AIM stock pattern).

I know how you feel about watching other shares romp ahead - I've missed out on a couple but I've also had a good run on some others, which had been languishing but which have spiked up on news. I'm happy to hold here to see it through - as you say, I don't have much choice (I'm averaging just under 20p and have more than 500K shares) but I still like the story here.

All the best

[boobly] 04/1/2010 09:55

My `Impression` is that ; as the share price has weakened , a few people sell (not many) but the price has been disproportionately marked down . The loose stock is almost imediately purchased , but there is no recovery in the price .
This cycle seems to have been ongoing at least since the mid twenties .
What on earth do the major shareholders think of all this ?
Are they complicit ?
What are PIP`s doing ?
How much cash is there ?
How long does it take to close `The Sale` ?

VERY unimpressed with the management .
This has become an act of faith .