Neuropharm Share Discussion Threads

[ihavenoclue] 03/11/2009 11:48

Need a new edison report on current valuation .. i doubt we will get close as we need to sell ... but a valuation of 160p if NPL 2008 was only 25% effective does make 20p look very cheap after a bid offer. ( Not saying we will even get close to 160p but 40p is still a VERY good buy price - and I am sure they know it)

Hopefully a few tipsters will have a look and realise the opportunity here.

Regards
IHNC

[joeblogg2] 03/11/2009 11:41

Balc. can't think too many got in that low. Hopefully, the papers start sniffing around for potential suitors...

[balcony] 03/11/2009 11:28

My guess is one or two got in at 14p or there abouts and are happy with near on 50% in less than a week,At 21p to buy now i am tempted to add

[quinan] 03/11/2009 10:47

Yep its madness the company can't be sold for less than cash value that would value the company at a big fat £0 I am struggling to understand the logic?? The company has numerous compounds and two new products about to be brought online, yes this will take cash but the reward will be huge, big pharmaceutical company's spend 10 times the value of NPH at the mo just to get where they are now. So this is a very attractive option for many company to get cash and technology.

NPH have now said to the market we are up for sale or a JV we have £7mln in the bank and a mass of compounds and knowledge. The market so far is saying you are not worth even cash level. LOL

[the_beagle] 03/11/2009 10:32

I just can't understand why anyone would sell now at 19p after this news. There again they may have bills to pay like me, or they are not aware of the RNS.

[boobly] 03/11/2009 09:49

IHNC :....Hope you`re right , fingers crossed !

[joeblogg2] 03/11/2009 09:49

Current mkt cap 6.3 mill. Been averaging down and need 23p for b/even. The potential for the company is there but in current markets the predator(s) hold the aces as cash is needed further down the line. Lets hope there is a reasonable offer sorted sooner !!!

[21simthy] 03/11/2009 09:42

I agree about quraishim !

A shameless pump and dumper and like many of them if they are not in
the stock all they can do is deramp it !

If he held this it would be none stop posts of 40-50p !

A definate filter job.

[ihavenoclue] 03/11/2009 09:40

The market is sometimes slow to react ... NTOG was floundering around 0.6p for a few days before taking off. Anyone thinking that the price will be a mill or two over cash price is off the mark TBH

[quinan] 03/11/2009 09:15

Well I think 30p could be the takeout price but I would like to see it a little higher time will tell.

Also have a look into SAR they have a brokers note of 3.52p currently .042 so could be one to watch

[lombiff] 03/11/2009 08:58

Happy Birthday Beagle, and good morning all.

Fancy that!! Paper loss wiped out!

IMO take-out price could be anything north of 30p. Edison's valuation without NPL-2008 was 40p back in March (and maybe this should be a little higher now that we have the new compounds in our pipeline). Take off around 5p for cash burn since then, and a bit more as we have cap in hand, and we get, say, 30p.

But this still assumes no value for NPL-2008 . However, the buyer will be looking to take NPL-2008 through to market and will hope to realise full value for it. Again, Edison's note valued NPH at £12m (40p per share) without 2008, and £50m (160p per share) if 2008 was 20% effective, so they are projecting a potential value of £38m for 2008 if it is 20% effective. The bidder will discount that to take into account the cost of the new trial (£5m) and FDA submissions ($ ?? m) and an element of risk. I reckon we're looking at an offer somewhere between 30p and 50p, possibly at the lower end.

This would be disappointing, as I'd quite like to see it through to full value so, for me, it might be better if we're offered shares in the bidder (depends on the terms, of course).

So, the news doesn't really change much for me - I said previously that I expected news in late October/early November, and that I'd wait until New Year and review my position then.

Good luck if you want to get out - I'm sticking

[arc2006] 03/11/2009 08:55

I think it's a fair estimate for year end say when the final deal may be done, as we had £7m or 22p at June 30th. I expect to see a few twists and turns here yet to be honest. GLA

[quinan] 03/11/2009 08:54

Strange how just before results this was pushed to nearly 40p on speculation of a JV or TO now its out in the open we are struggling to get over 25p LOL I wonder what would have happened if they had announced this news on results day we may have been looking @ 60p

I think some has seen this as a little desperation but NPH need a major player to push them forward this was always going to be the preferred option the only prob is the share price has been trashed to this low level. They need to get the PR moving to recover the share price to a more realistic level.

[ihavenoclue] 03/11/2009 08:53

quraishim - 3 Nov'09 - 07:52 - 2465 of 2480


in my opinion...the premium is in the price.......... "possible offer" the rns does not look very encouraging..... good luck holders.........

=======================

qura ... unlike you to talk out of your backside ... currently 21p is a smidge over cash price.

[the_beagle] 03/11/2009 08:52

Arc.......I would love that to be the case but who knows the value of the "product". I really expect 30p and have just taken my holding back to 50,000 in anticipation. Had to sell 10k last week at 15.5p to pay a bill and nearly sold the lot out of frustration, but bought back at 22.9p which looks a safe bet to me. GLA.

[ihavenoclue] 03/11/2009 08:47

LOL Possible Offer and it just rises to cash price. This was always the danger to shorters - yes products were 18 - 24 months away but they had cash and someone could always just step up and buy the whole company for a song.

Arc ... cash price is more like 21p than 18p .. but who is counting if it is a credible offer.

[arc2006] 03/11/2009 08:42

As to valuation. Well of course we have to start at cash, so I would say 18p minimum. Burn rate should have been pretty low for the last 6months as all major r&d was on hold. So that will leave us all the r&d to date with NPL 2008 at Phase iii stage, the two fragile x with positive phase IIa results and the new NPL2505 and NPL 2510. Got to be £10m there surely? Plus cash.

[boobly] 03/11/2009 08:30

I Have No Clue as to a fair and possible take out price .

What I do feel is that there was simply NO other options open to the business . I had thought that time , resources and operational magnitude would eventually force this course of action . I am very relieved that management are now actively persuing a strategy that `Should` lead to some reasonable return for shareholders . We should now see just what sort of value a partner will put on the sciences .
Fingers crossed that it will be Cash + (A nice big £) .

Good luck to all the long termers in here !

[quinan] 03/11/2009 08:29

We knew this was on the cards the BIG question was who it was to be and at what price. Also I think the major shareholders may have pushed them to take this action so they can get NPL2008 into the market place. They will not do this without major backing so this is the only way to go. IMHO this should be worth a lot more than current levels take out the £7mln they have in the bank if you buy this company at this price you get £200k for free LOL

[the_beagle] 03/11/2009 08:29

geng... sorry to see you go!!

In the cold light of day I can now see a takeout price of 30p. The alternative might be for NPH to sell it's knowledge, become a cash shell or return funds to shareholders. I think that the cash is under 20p at this date, but the product has to be worth 10p. Therefore 30p is my forecast. News in a month maximum. Worth staying in at this level. May buy more later.

[arc2006] 03/11/2009 08:26

Sorry Geng you are incorrect. They are in discussion with a specific company now about an offer for the whole company which may or may not lead to an offer (standard wording). As this is the first time they have entertaianed such an offer (having previously been working on a JV) it is standard practice again to say "we are for sale now" to invite other offers.

[hadronuk] 03/11/2009 08:25

It's a bit more positive than that, "in discussions", was the term used, so they already have one or more potential buyers.

[geng] 03/11/2009 08:17

I'd read that more carefully, they are only saying they are going to LOOK for a merger or buyer.

Sounds a bit desperate for me I'm out.

[pre] 03/11/2009 08:16

BAO is turning into the hot stock at the moment...take a look for those interested and dyor etc..gla