Neuropharm Share Discussion Threads

[quinan] 30/9/2009 10:08

Sorry Lom looks like I am mixing the test site with the JV but I still read it that the initial talks broke down but are now back on track with whoever but NPH will hold a better stake in the deal

[lombiff] 30/9/2009 10:03

Not sure about that Quinan. We bought 2008 from Mount Sinai back in 2006 and they are still one of our main shareholders. It's a school, so I don't think these would be a JV partner for the next trial. We need someone who will fund the trial and help with commercialisation.

Beagle - yes, that's me at 26.5p - couldn't resist. My 10K at 34p yesterday was not so clever (!) and I even bought 10K at 38p in the last spike. However, I accumulated most of mine at between 15p and 22p, so I'm still comfortably up. I've said all along that I'd wait until the New Year - no reason to change that view now, so I now have 380K locked away for a few months.

All the best

[the_beagle] 30/9/2009 09:35

Lombiff...Is that your 30k at 26.5p? Great buy if it was. My buy at 31p a few days ago not looking too clever, but at least I sold 20k at 37.7p a while back which makes me feel better! There was always a danger that recent buying volume would bring in short term traders, and I guess they are the ones now exiting.

There seems to be a lot more going on than anyone previously thought and two or three months could bring about quite a rerating imo. GLA.

[quinan] 30/9/2009 09:31

OK I have read this several times and have come to the concussion that the deal with a North American pharmaceutical was initial terminated due to them wanting to much from NPL2008, NPH did not want them taking a huge stake in what could be very lucrative. So after further talks they have now agreed that Mount Sinai School of Medicine can proceed with NPL2008 this will now allow NPH to licence NPL2008 to others maybe the EU etc and Mount Sinai can have the Americas

[quinan] 30/9/2009 08:20

LOL just tried to buy more first was quoted 25p then the price dropped and now being quoted 30p looks like the MM's punished the early sellers LOL

[lombiff] 30/9/2009 08:13

This is massively overdone - couldn't resist another 30K just now.

Arc, agree with you that, at little more than cash, we're a sitting duck for a bid.

[quinan] 30/9/2009 07:56

Arc yes this is no dead duck the reaction today is as you say on short term speculation. Infact they are in a very strong position they have enough funding to bring 2 or more compounds to market within a year or so, many may see the week share price as a good opportunity to buy them out rather than wait until the share price is above £1.50p BUT would NPH allow this I get the impression there is a lot of backing in NPH and they are in a nice position to pick rather than be chosen

[arc2006] 30/9/2009 07:50

The JV that was mentioned in May is the North American one and that is not now happening. We don't know when that happened or why but I suspect it was probably the usual that they weren't able to agree terms. Perhaps with a a slightly improved economy (or a least one on the right side of a black hole) the company feels they have more opportunity to retain a larger portion of the comapny going forward. There seems to be so many options and to be honest, I wouldn't rule out more M&A approaches now. For me nothing has changed. Yes the share price has dropped rather severely this morning but it's where it was a couple of weeks ago, so short term speculators. Agreed we need news on the funding for the new PhaseIII trial and that remains what we are still waiting for. What I am confident about is that it is still a case of when and not if.

[ihavenoclue] 30/9/2009 07:35

LOL good job I closed my spreadbet .. this is crazy at the moment

[ihavenoclue] 30/9/2009 07:24

Currently has a market cap of less than £9m ... so 4 compounds for less than half a mill each.

[quinan] 30/9/2009 07:15

Yes the drop IMHO is over done I know many were looking for the JV announcement, but this is still there and as they said would not be signed till the Autumn. It would appear the rest of the news is irrelevant LOL

I think when the shake is over the more sensible ones will start to buy back.

[ihavenoclue] 30/9/2009 07:11

Quinan ... i know ... not selling a share that I own .. just knew it would drop when JV news didn't appear ... thought I would be able to close above 30p at least .. guess I was wrong.

Still not a bad profit :-)

Regards
IHNC

[quinan] 30/9/2009 07:08

Yes it's a pity when peeps this happens to me the results put a line under a year where the company was put down as bust at the mo they are valued at just above cash value so we could say NPH is only worth £4mln for all their compounds. LOL

[ihavenoclue] 30/9/2009 07:05

Wow that markdown was a lot harsher than I thought it would be. I closed by spreadbet I opened at 23p for just under 30p.

I feel this will now drop down to the 23 - 25p area now ... too many people piling in hoping for JV news.

Regards
IHNC

[lombiff] 30/9/2009 07:03

Catalent were our production "partner" for the drugs in SOFIA - I'm not sure they are a potential JV partner for the research.

Quinan - I just think the MMs will assume that many of the buys over the last few days are with "hot" money expecting JV news today, and they'll mark it down to shake them out at a loss, and then walk it back up after the dust settles.

This is still a great long-term share, and the new pipeline is lower cost and nearer to revenue generation than the others. I won't be selling for a long time yet, and I hope I'm wrong about today. Good luck all

[arc2006] 30/9/2009 07:01

Well. I'm not entirely sure how to read this to be honest. Termination of exclusive talks could be that the company now feels they have more options available to them to take this forward. Catalent make the melt in the mouth pill, so that arrangement I don't believe is about the future funding. Much more cash left than thought but not really relevant.

[quinan] 30/9/2009 06:57

The other bit of good news is they are not asking the market for more cash they have sufficient money to last them until the other products start to generate an income with the added advantage of getting grant funding.

[quinan] 30/9/2009 06:46

Also this is new to me

Our two new near-term programmes in NPL-2505 and NPL-2510 could both be funded
over the next financial year from existing resources and represent attractive
opportunities for revenue generation in the US market and potential licensing
and partnering in other markets.

[kiki14p] 30/9/2009 06:45

Thanks Quinan

[quinan] 30/9/2009 06:42

Discussions are ongoing regarding potential
collaboration on the further development and commercialisation of the product,
after initial exclusive negotiations on a North American deal were terminated.
Changes to the arrangements with Mount Sinai School of Medicine have been agreed and discussions with Catalent on the arrangements for the future are at an advanced stage.

[kiki14p] 30/9/2009 06:38

Quinan... sorry only scanned over results where is mention of Catalent?

[quinan] 30/9/2009 06:35

Lom what make you think that the market was in a very negative view with NPH these results clearly say they are on they way to making money form they compounds and also they have backing by some big partners. It would appear NPH are the only ones in this field so they will get backing. Also it would appear Catalent are only going to have a finger in NPL2008 the other produces are NPH and that could generate them a substantial income, but the best thing they can be brought to market very quickly.

[mike_f] 30/9/2009 06:33

I think it is a pretty positive update but unfortunately the JV hasn't been signed yet which i feel alot of PI's would have been getting in for over the last couple of days...

As you say Lom, good to see some more products in the pipeline and hopefully we will get a deal signed soon!

[quinan] 30/9/2009 06:31

Well now we know who they intend to partner with this is good and looking better as I read

Looks to me like they are now small fry Catalent employs approximately 9,400 at 30 facilities worldwide and in fiscal 2008 generated more than $1.8 billion of annual revenue. For more information


Fab news on NPL-2505 and NPL-2510 looks like they will generator revenue by 2011 and 2012 via a licence deal. This bit sound encouraging This screen represents an exciting near-term global opportunity with significant
market potential in a favourable regulatory environment

[lombiff] 30/9/2009 06:29

So, more cash than expected (£7m vs £6m), 2003/2005 ongoing, and two new pipeline opportunities that can be funded from existing resources. News on 2008 is mixed - funding/partnership discussions ongoing, and still optimistic about a new test, but "exclusive negotiations" with one potential partner have been terminated.

As expected, we still have to wait for news on a JV to get this really moving, but the new pipeline is promising. I'm still waiting for the New Year before moving one way or another but I expect MMs will mark this down today.