National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2024 17:19

Rights exercised, funds taken, now we just need the new shares on the 12th.. :o)

[anhar] 07/6/2024 09:10

#Anhar, I have a 12.5/32.5 (45p) pencilled in +CPIH going forward, fine by me, see where the share price ends up in 6/12 months time.. :o)

Yes agreed, 45p seems approx the most likely 25 divi far as I can tell at this stage. As an income player, that's the figure I'd use to estimate forward yield at present if I was to add to my holding. Imo it's attractive at 5% or higher yield implying a max price of 900ish under current conditions of interest rates etc.

Just my view, others may see it differently.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2024 09:00

#Anhar, I have a 12.5/32.5 (45p) pencilled in +CPIH going forward, fine by me, see where the share price ends up in 6/12 months time.. :o)

ECB rate cut is the 1st of them, June 12th for the FED decision, 19th June CPI inflation data, BOE decision 20th June then 1st August, IF we get a cut in June ahead of the GE then that would be very well received by the equity markets, but I expect August for our 1st one..

[davius] 07/6/2024 08:59

First ECB interest rate cut, UK likely to follow, then the FED (world's gone crazy, I know it's the wrong way round, haha).

We've had a bumper couple of years with our ISAs shelling out thousands in tax free interest, but all the rates are dropping now. The 5.89% fixed rate I'm getting from Ford Bank which expires in February won't be seen again for a long time.

I can see my holding in NG becoming a long term investment for income.

[utyinv] 07/6/2024 08:58

Hi guys, (guys and gals), lot of chat about divis but as we all concur there are too many variables to draw a definitive.

I think the first real indication will come in Nov when the interims paid in early Jan might shed some qualifying light on the subject.

However, and I am not getting political, but if Labour do win the GE then the positive backing from Labour to what NG are doing may wane if the dividends are not conservative. Just my thoughts fwiw.

At least the final, which is usually paid in Aug will now be paid in July.

The AGM is early too, instead of it being in late July its on the 10th and back in the Midlands ie Scarman House, part of Warwick University. Spent many a course / meeting at Radcliffe House ( nearby and here they do MBA’s etc), whilst at NG😂

I suppose all eyes will be on the open next Wednesday. Good luck all👍

[anhar] 07/6/2024 08:28

PO: Istr pettigrew saying the divi pot will remain the same next year, before rising with cpi after that.

So the pot divided by 3.7billion is (19.4+39.12) = 59p (23/24)

Next year the same pot divided by 4.7 bill shares is 59*3.7/4.7 = 46.5pish...

I don't agree Pierre. See my figures above where I show that the 25 divi is likely to be about 45p based on their stated predictions in the rights docs. Not a huge difference from your estimate but I think my figure will be more accurate as far as we can know at this stage.

Divis are never guaranteed so in practice it could be anything but I'd be much more inclined to trust the rights doc calcs, it's there for a good reason imo, making a predicted yield of about 5.2% at 868p which aint bad I think, from an income player's pov.

[goldgeezer] 07/6/2024 08:17

In summary - long term hold

[goldgeezer] 07/6/2024 08:16

I suspect the slow rise to 1100p will now begin. Greater rises in dividends also expected later to maintain the attractive yield as the funding goes to work.

[1carus] 06/6/2024 18:45

Yep, happy with the 5.4% yield as long as it is supported over the long term. Plus if the asset value is to double in 5 to 10 years the share price should be hitting mid teens at least. Good news for everyone here that the share price did not drop significantly today.

[gilesy911] 06/6/2024 16:17

Can we see a rise tomorrow after this is all over ??

[skinny] 06/6/2024 16:15

Pretty good Phil, it will be at least the 12th with HL.

[philanderer] 06/6/2024 15:47

ii showing my new fully paid shares in my account at 645p , epic = NGPF . Cash has been taken to pay for them as I requested.

[pierre oreilly] 06/6/2024 13:47

Istr pettigrew saying the divi pot will remain the same next year, before rising with cpi after that.

So the pot divided by 3.7billion is (19.4+39.12) = 59p (23/24)

Next year the same pot divided by 4.7 bill shares is 59*3.7/4.7 = 46.5pish or a current post issue yield at 867 of 5.36%.

Obviously figures are approx. The yield for ng. will be seen as much more secure than other companies, and the same with the index linking (that's one effect of being so highly regulated). A 5.36ish% yield for ng. will be valued higher than the same yield for other ftses.

[davius] 06/6/2024 12:25

Whilst short term the dividend yield will be lower, they'll have another £7bn odd to play with, one broker view I looked at suggested this would add 4% growth. I view this as a more compelling investment case than prior to the rights issue.

Though of course, I didn't hold shares the day the rights was announced and they fell 10% odd...

[ironhorse] 06/6/2024 12:07

Thanks Skinny

[anhar] 06/6/2024 10:40

LLB: In effect, the 2025 divi prediction from the company is around 45p, making a forward yield at 864p of 5.2%.

My figure is based on this comment in the rights docs:

Estimated rebase of 15 per cent., from approximately 53 pence being the FY24 DPS adjusted to take account of the bonus element of the Rights Issue...

So 53 - 15% = about 45p with CPIH increases intended thereafter, as previously.

Regrettably, NG. now has the dubious distinction of full membership of the Divi Slashers Club though I'll continue to hold in my income port and actually increased the holding, having added more shares from the sale of my npr as I mentioned earlier.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/6/2024 10:09

1Carus, the dividend will be re-based going forward, but expect 4.5/5% as it will be reduced to account for the dilution coming on the 12th..

I added a few more this morning but will have to wait for the rest as/when dividends come in, must not grumble though, they are for free after all.. :o)..

We will continue our progressive dividend policy, maintaining the total level of dividend following the RI. Our aim is to grow Dividend Per Share in line with UK CPIH inflation in keeping with the current dividend policy. We will aim to increase the FY25 DPS by UK CPIH following the rebase of the FY24 DPS of 58.52 pence, after taking account of the new shares issued following the Rights Issue..

[davius] 06/6/2024 09:40

SP held up slightly better than the dividend drop, for now at least, which is encouraging.

[ironhorse] 06/6/2024 09:40

When do the np shares that I purchased get consolidated with existing shares?

[1carus] 06/6/2024 09:07

Back in with a chunk, 6.5% divi yield to good not to miss here. Good look with the rights issue to all.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/6/2024 14:22

#1Carcus, unscheduled, but my holding here will also rise 100%, 1st batch was 2019, I took the view to double down, my average holding price will be around the same as it was for my first holding, so happy to hold for dividends for another 5-10 years and/or take a view on it when we are GBP 10-11 again..

XD at last, now we will see where it goes next.. :o)

[1carus] 05/6/2024 14:19

Similar here, but I sold out of NG earlier in the year. 10.60ish having held for years from 8.30. I stuck it into lloy at 44p and taken that back out to reinvest here... for once things going in my favour. I have a reasonable interest in lloyds mainly for income but used some of the money to average down some of my telecoms, ugh, and buy a chunk of these tomorrow. I will have a much bigger holding here than my original investment as the yield and upside both look promising.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/6/2024 14:01

1Carcus, a lot depends on some dividends landing this afternoon and if the cash is cleared for the morning, a PITA really but a pitfall of holding these inside an ISA which is already topped up and spent for the year was having to liquidate some of another position to buy and cover the unscheduled RI plus buy a few more on top last week, probably a limit order for a few and at best the rest..

I think I will split my last 15% I need into 3 buys and aim to get the best average over 3 days in case it keeps heading south post XD for 39.13 pence..

The average cost price is what matters, trying to pinpoint a bottom post XD is typically hard to predict, some keep going south, some rebound quickly, here with the rebound already underway, post XD it could be a short and sharp -39 pence and back on its way up again PDQ..