National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[utyinv] 10/6/2021 15:50

Yanks playing with this sp

[davetedjack] 09/6/2021 14:50

Quite a big increase as well

[lovewinshatelosses] 09/6/2021 14:42

Blackrock have increased their holding, I see.

[bountyhunter] 08/6/2021 17:34

That was quite a rebound on the Dow, just after the London 16:30 close of course! (see header)

[davethehorse] 08/6/2021 16:16

Nice buy at the close?

[utyinv] 08/6/2021 14:54

Yanks spoiling the restoration in share price

[davethehorse] 08/6/2021 07:24

Heading for 1000p in the not to distant, keep buying folks ;-)

[gateside] 03/6/2021 18:51

Or companies that are domiciled in Jersey or Guernsey, which also have no Stamp Duty.

One of the reasons I deal little, is you have to take into account, Broker fees, Stamp Duty (on most shares) and the spread (large outside the FTSE100)

Plus markets often move the way you were not hoping that they would move, when trying to trade!

Buy, hold and reinvest dividends.
Pretty boring, but less stressful and it works!

[bountyhunter] 03/6/2021 18:43

...and you have to factor in stamp duty, commission and spread! I've considered it but decided not worth the effort ...unless perhaps for a decent dividend paying Aim listing with a narrow spread as no stamp duty there, but not many of those!

[1carus] 03/6/2021 14:38

The drop always feels painful, but still nice to know the Divi is effectively in the bank! Sometimes good to sell the day before and buy back in. But with my luck it would always go against me one way or another.

[utyinv] 03/6/2021 12:45

Pierre,

First time on market for general population was 1995.

Good grief that’s 26 years ago. Time passes

[pierre oreilly] 03/6/2021 12:11

It does seem to be exactly at the bottom - that's just luck. 10:36:21.

I couldn't get an online quote to buy at the time, was prepared to pay 912, the buy price at the time. So I put a limit in at 912 and it executed immediately at 9.09395.

Not too interested in the precise price - it's now an income stream for me and probably won't be sold. Held plenty from when they first went onto the market half a lifetime ago.

[bountyhunter] 03/6/2021 11:25

Looks like your top up turned it Pierre 😀

[davethehorse] 03/6/2021 10:41

Let's see if the bounce is sustained

[utyinv] 03/6/2021 10:27

For those are thinking about buying:

In normal times the share does recover a little a week or so after ex-dividend date. But then it normally falls again and new lows can be found around Sept/Oct before it rises in early Nov for the interims. I say normally, but this year is not normal, ie, expecting a decision by the CMA regarding RIIO II ROE and we have the run up to Copt26.

Both events might propel the share price to a realistic value indicated in the Simply Wall St article I posted earlier.

[pierre oreilly] 03/6/2021 09:40

I just bought another lot at 9.09.

Not that i haven't got enough already - i have a gilt maturing this week after holding for 20 years which has given me a notional 8% over that time, with a small capital loss. So got a big lot to invest to keep the income up. ng. seems the best bet at this price, for divi seekers. Safe as houses .... correction, atm safer than houses!

[bluemango] 03/6/2021 09:39

Extraordinary.

By any stretch, any metric, this is surely overdone.

[davethehorse] 03/6/2021 09:37

Reckon we're going to 900p for support?

[spawny100] 03/6/2021 09:31

Bit more of a drop than many expected here. Must be more patient in future buying exdiv!

[nickg2] 03/6/2021 09:19

Think it's bottomed now

[davethehorse] 03/6/2021 09:19

Only question is when it will bottom, ready to add when it does look like levelling off

[utyinv] 03/6/2021 08:31

A little out of date but still very relevant. Taken from Simply Wall St.

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of National Grid plc (LON:NG.) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for National Grid

The calculation

As National Grid operates in the integrated utilities sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. Instead of using free cash flows, which are hard to estimate and often not reported by analysts in this industry, dividends per share (DPS) payments are used. Unless a company pays out the majority of its FCF as a dividend, this method will typically underestimate the value of the stock. The 'Gordon Growth Model' is used, which simply assumes that dividend payments will continue to increase at a sustainable growth rate forever. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.0%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 5.8%. Compared to the current share price of UK£9.0, the company appears about fair value at a 16% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)

= UK£0.5 / (5.8% – 1.0%)

= UK£10.8

[davethehorse] 03/6/2021 07:54

For those who bought for the divi just hold and wait a week or so. For those adding or buying use the opportunity for cheap shares

[spawny100] 03/6/2021 07:50

I just bought a few as had some cash spare from POLY divi and thought I'd put it in here to make a few quid from the recovery until I have a better place to put it Pierre.