National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[cocopah] 23/2/2021 17:39

I agree that the share price is bearing all the weight of RIIO-2. Has anyone done the numbers on the impact this will have on National Grid if the appeal is rejected? I’m thinking a 50% reduction in dividend and a share price in the 7.00 to 8.00 range?

[mark1000] 23/2/2021 12:20

Boystown a lot of risk on this share at the moment as I see it the crucial decision do they appeal or not the Ofgem 5 year price deal. If they do they can hardly keep pressing on with the current divi they have to at least pending the decision hold back part of the divi. This shares all about the divi so reduce the divi by 20% expect the share price to fall by 20%. My hope is they accept the Ofgem deal and reconfirm that they will continue the current dividend policy. I think taking away these uncertainties would take us back over 9.00 if they appeal we could see 7.00 IMHO.

[boystown] 22/2/2021 18:31

To me, this feels a bit like the same time of year in 2000. All the tech stuff that could never possibly justify their share prices via earnings / yield, in a hundred years were rocketing, whilst big, profitable blue-chips / industrials etc., were at low points. It proved to be exactly the right time to switch.

It's slightly different, as a lot of high yield / solid stuff has done well of late, but NG has been slammed - and far too far IMO, whilst techs and crypto etc.... well!

Similarly, there's been a lot of irrational small cap exuberance.

[smith99] 22/2/2021 17:25

Anywhere around this price is a great buy

[boystown] 22/2/2021 16:50

Shirley a great buy at this price??? (no current pos'n)

[lennonsalive] 22/2/2021 16:33

All the way down until £8?

[mark1000] 17/2/2021 09:31

Newbank many thanks

[newbank] 17/2/2021 08:55

Ofgem published its decision on proposed mods to licences for RIIO-II on 3 February.
NG will work through the document, and either accept these changes, or appeal (some or all of the proposals) to the CMA. They have 20 working days to do so. Hence the approx date of early March,....approx 3rd/4th March.

[mark1000] 16/2/2021 16:49

Newbank do you know latest date in March I assume an RNS on that date to confirm if or if not they are going to appeal. The higher exchange with USD is depressing the conversion into GBP profits does anyone know if NG hedges the USD/ Sterling exchange rate? The share price seems hugely depressed against a rampant bull market.

[newbank] 16/2/2021 14:42

National Grid will decide whether to accept Ofgem's final decision for RIIO II early March.

[pierre oreilly] 11/2/2021 08:09

Ian, I think it was somone called Byicycle man or similar who prompted my post from a couple of weeks ago. I asked him some direct questions about his views and was hoping for some engagement but unfortunately he didn't reply, hence the delay.

[ianguerin] 11/2/2021 05:28

Pierre - when I asked about battery storage, I had the likes of GRID in mind rather than Tesla Powerwall

[utyinv] 10/2/2021 16:27

Mark,

Or NG sells the UK regulated business and tells Ofgem to get someone else to be their puppets.

NG has been fair and honest and Ofgem are just taking the proverbial.

If NG ever sold the UK business to the Chinese, French or Germans, I would love to be a fly on the wall when Ofgem tries to tell the new owners what to do.

NG just want a level playing field where business can attract investment. NG shareholders are not a charity.

[mark1000] 10/2/2021 14:19

It might sound strange but I do not want NG to appeal the OFGEM decision re the 5 year contract instead I want a statement saying that the settlement though tough the board will continue with the current dividend policy with RPI inflation increases. When the 5 year dividend track is made clear we will see the share price back in the range 9.20 to 9.80 and higher in the run up to the June div back over 10.00.
If they appeal the OFGEM decision they are almost duty bound to hold back at least part of the June divi pending the decision. Then if the appeal goes well the divi can be restated in full if the appeal fails then a reduced divi even if NG could afford to pay out the full divi.

[lennonsalive] 09/2/2021 16:44

OFGEM a niggle and always will be since I started work for the gas in 97, but BG/Transco/NG. always survived and have delivered slow boring growth and go dividend.

[mark1000] 09/2/2021 16:15

Bond rates may be part of the reason but I give more weight to the following.

The exchange rate with the dollar has reduced GBP Group profits by say 5% as the £ has strengthend by say 10%.

The recent OFGEM settlement with a question mark over an appeal leaves the all important question will the divi be maintained will it continue to grow as often said the market hates uncertainty.

This share is supposed to be safe and boring the last eighteen months has shown this not to be so. You had a Labour Party wanting to renationalise without fair compensation. Ofgem is in a war with NG to drive the hardest possible bargain to get a settlement. Now headlines about spliting part of NG.
Folks accept lower returns on Utilities because of boring predictability take that away folks want higher returns this translates to a lower share price

[unastubbs] 08/2/2021 14:14

current share price weakness is due to increase in bond yields, nothing to do with the potential forced sale.

[newbank] 08/2/2021 09:44

Uty,

I too have had similar discussions with John Pettigrew.

It's so very clear what the Money Men are trying to do. They are well aware of panic they will send to the Private Investor in order to get your shares cheap.

They were spreading the same doom and gloom, as you refer, when NG was forced to ring-fence and then separate out Pumped Storage Generation (which National Grid used to own), because National Grid did not have a Generation License in the UK.

Look at the share price then and compare it to today. Too many people are trying to manipulate the share price by publishing old news.

[utyinv] 08/2/2021 09:05

I have personally advocated NG getting rid of the SO business to JP (CEO) himself. I remember having that conversation with him, saying it brings in so little in comparison with other elements of the business, but attracts too much stick from OFGEM, ie, it isn’t worth it.
I know he was of the same opinion.

[muffinhead] 06/2/2021 19:55

???
Market does not like uncertainty, government dictats and dollops of investment that reduce dividend payouts

The big investors will be hedging positions

Ofgem wants to split up National Grid

[muffinhead] 06/2/2021 19:50

If price keeps banging on support, eventually it goes and leads to a rush of selling

Weekly timeframe chart

[utyinv] 02/2/2021 13:37

That’s why there is such a massive disconnect in what Politicians believe is possible in terms of cost and time and what is realistically feasible.

The Gov and especially OFGEM (bunch of pen-pushing egotistical idealists), need to be honest with the public and tell them what the score really is.

NG will always deliver, but it will cost and NG is not a charity.

[m100] 02/2/2021 11:33

@POR The peaks quoted are the actual measured ones (at the Grid Supply Point) the equivalent of Transmission System Demand, so power station demand etc has already been netted off

The actual full output usable for two days ahead, including 100% import interconnectors and an assumed seasonal level of grid connected wind is currently 51964MW