National Grid Share Discussion Threads

[arf dysg] 25/1/2018 11:29

warranty (5788) This is like death by 1000 cuts!!


Only 804 cuts to go!

[1carus] 25/1/2018 10:51

Falling Knife syndrome did cross my mind when I bought some of these earlier in the week -- to be honest NG has been very disappointing since the share split thing last year. It is very rarely you can judge a buy at the bottom and a sell at the top, but buying and selling at what turns out at a reasonable price in your favour over your investment term is probably the best you can hope for. Happy to make 6% on these with little risk at these prices given the spin off value of the USA operation. Only time will tell I guess.

[jonwig] 25/1/2018 07:05

UltyNV - don't forget that being short NG. (or anything else) doesn't necessarily mean you expect its price to fall. The most common shorts are pairs trades: long A and short B if you expect A to outperform B.

Poor performance of NG. and other utilities might be part of the same thing: why hold these when they don't benefit from global growth? Sell them and buy cyclicals and growths.

There's also the threat of more regulation, and worse, at least in the UK.

[atlantic57] 25/1/2018 06:58

If the utilities are viewed as gilts that may be a driver .

[utyinv] 25/1/2018 00:06

As Newbank suggests, National Grid should tell Ofgem where to go. Let them allocate the project to another Carillion and watch the costs spiral whilst the company goes bust.

Then when the equipment is eventually built, at many times the proposed cost, if not of top quality design and build it will not be allowed to connect to the System. NG has the ultimate decision, as to whether any equipment that is to be connected meets the connection criteria and conforms to compliance and safety standards.

[utyinv] 24/1/2018 23:40

That explains a little part of it! As mentioned on earlier posts the NYSE Website gives data on the 'Short' Interest on all shares listed. Unfortunately, the data is published two weeks after the event. However, although it is history by the time it's published, it does give an indication of the trend, however slight.

Just published after the Dow closed today, on Friday 12th Jan the number of ADR Shorts increased by 11.4% to a total of 0.167% up from 0.15%. Previously, and constantly after the ex-divi date the number of ADR's being 'Shorted' were slowly being closed. However, on the 12th Jan they increased (did someone working for Ofgem leak the data that was to go into the report regarding Hinkley?).

The numbers are still very small but it does confirm as of the 12th Jan there was a slightly increasing trend.

Let's hope the data today has reduced, but we won't know that for another two weeks. The next data will take into account the date when Ofgem officially released the decision on the Hinkley project and how the Yanks perceived that situation.

[bountyhunter] 24/1/2018 22:53

just fear and uncertainty I think, combined with a change in the interest rate cycle damaging sentiment, but could be wrong

[atlantic57] 24/1/2018 22:49

I still don't get it.
There is little liklihood of a general election anytime soon.
Also Labour still have alot to do to win a majority and given their weakness in Scotland
this would be quite a task.

There may be other factors driving these utilities down..

[bountyhunter] 24/1/2018 22:39

SSE is in an even worse state - as you might expect given no foreign interests - a new 5 yr low there today now yielding 7%+ - at least it was just a new 4 year low here!
Trust lunch with Boris to have been a prize at that dinner - more ammo for Corbyn?! At least one of the other prizes was tea with Mark Carney (that's not much of a prize though) to add political balance although he is supossed to be politically independent but everyone can see that he is not!

[atlantic57] 24/1/2018 22:28

Well ng keeops falling and shows no sign of stopping.

[bountyhunter] 24/1/2018 20:12

UI - I heard that this time around earnings growth underpins the rise in the Dow with the prospective PE remaining sensible unlike in those dodgy dot-com boom and bust days when many of us got burnt.
It can't carry on for ever though so go away in May and come back on Labour Day may well be a sensible approach this year assuming the markets hold out until May!

[coxsmn] 24/1/2018 19:30

Pivot Point 1st Support Point is 805p

[warranty] 24/1/2018 19:19

This is like death by 1000 cuts!!

[utyinv] 24/1/2018 19:17

When you look at where the Dow was a little more than a year ago and where the FTSE was, the correlation and tracking of the two Indexes appears to have disconnected, where the FTSE is just plodding along whilst the DOW has increased by over 10,000 points.

Fundamentals of the Companies that are within the indexes are basically the same, yet the DOW now looks dangerously high IMO.

Trouble is, when the Dow eventually crashes it will take all the world's major indexes with them!

Does anyone have an opinion that they wish to share?

[coxsmn] 24/1/2018 19:07

Srp, agreed and makes for a good opportunity here.

[septimus quaid] 24/1/2018 18:55

Daft laddie question: is the opening price in London based on the previous London closing price or NYSE closing price (with $/£ conversion)?

[warranty] 24/1/2018 18:55

Don't try to catch a falling knife. How many times do we ignore this and suffer? Why risk it instead of waiting until there is positive news and a sustained rise. I mean, it's not going to boom overnight so plenty of time to get in when it does inevitably turn.

[srpactive] 24/1/2018 18:53

C

Yes it appears the defensive stocks are getting moved down,
maybe for a buying spree soon.

[1squintyflinty] 24/1/2018 18:41

The American arm of National Grid is worth approx current share price leaving
this side of the pond in for NOTHING.Will average down tomorrow.

[coxsmn] 24/1/2018 18:29

It's got silly here.

[utyinv] 24/1/2018 16:32

Morgan Stanley reiterates overweight on 22nd Jan with a Price Target of £11.00

Today JP Morgan Cazenove reiterates overweight with a price target of £10.40

Shorts in the US are closing, no shorts reported on the LSE disclosure List, yet the shares are constantly falling.

The Dow is surging to dangerous levels reminiscent of the dot com bubble yet fundamentals haven't changed. The Markets are not showing any logic IMV

[careful] 23/1/2018 13:36

Employees and unions always support the idea of nationalisation.
They think it means job security, shorter hours, better pensions.
All underwritten by the taxpayer.

No more CLLN type disasters.
They could employ twice many staff, take twice as long, massive cost overruns yet still keep coining it in.
Thanks to HMG and the taxpayer.
total job security for life they think.

[newbank] 23/1/2018 13:27

Ironic state of affairs.

I am in constant contact with those who work in the industry and I was surprised to learn that there are quite a few, especially Union Reps that support the idea of Corbyn Nationalising the Company.

This is ironic as they are the first to participate in sharesaves and SIP share options. They let the share options mature in the share saves, take the shares and flog them. No long term loyalty and no, they don't need the money (if you knew them ).

Maybe the Company has changed dramatically recently. Under the last labour Government, under Blair and Brown everyone at the Company was behind the Company and enjoyed the benefits. Not so now since the Marx Bros have come to town, the REPs believe that their position and standing within the Company will be enhanced, delusion of grandeur?

Maybe the Company ought to operate as a real Private Company and pay all workers based on share price performance? As the price rises they get a corresponding pay rise if the share falls they get a corresponding pay cut. Maybe then the REPs would be up in arms against their Marxist Bros and 'Lobby' to allow the Company to flourish.

Most private Companies are allowing Staff to participate in being stakeholders, but stakeholders in reaping the rewards must also take a hit when the going gets rough. AIMO.

[newbank] 23/1/2018 13:13

I will be interested in the views of some original posters on this thread like m100?