Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[dancing piranha] 08/7/2009 16:56

LOL, I'll say no more!

The Jackel - 30 Jun'09 - 19:21 - 304 of 324

Oh hang on I've just noticed Dancing Piranha was shorting these a few weeks back lol!!!!!!!!!!! And I'm the idiot lol U idiot!!!!!!!!!!

[the jackel] 06/7/2009 20:05

Yeah got out completely this morning with profits still intact! Will leave this one a while but will keep my eye out for any interest of a takeover and may jump back in again. Its just a bit risky at the moment and you were bang on with you prediction! Once they hit 269p they dropped even more sharply. So glad I pulled out earlier in the day! good call that one!

[fast mover] 06/7/2009 17:23

Well i did what i said and i have now got a good position... just wish i sold more... hope you did ok..

[the jackel] 05/7/2009 12:16

Yeah I think your bang on with that analysis! One thing I know for sure I'm not sticking with this one for to much longer! Good luck!

[fast mover] 05/7/2009 12:10

My thoughts are lower on Monday and if there is a bid before they issue a rights issue in the next 6 weeks a rally thereafter... The key level is 269p... If that level is breached it will drop quickly.. I am going to probably sell 100k shares... good luck!

[the jackel] 05/7/2009 12:04

Yes that is something to think about once they issue a rights issue it will have a negative impact on the share price however I don't feel they will announce a rights issue just yet while there is so much uncertainty over the C2C and East Anglia franchises. Shareholders may be less than keen.

NEX are in a tight position if they don't have a right issue soon they may be susceptable to more takeover actions from companies like First and maybe even Stagecoach.

I bought shares in NEX a few months back and skimmed the profits I made off the top just to leave my original stake so think I will hold for now. To be honest my gut feel is this one could go either way! Rights issue down further takeover talk up!

[fast mover] 05/7/2009 11:32

I am going short tomorrow when the rights issue price is revealed they will be nearer to £2.00 rather than £3.00 to attract shareholders to take up the issue.. Look what happened to RIO.. There is no positive story here...

[the jackel] 03/7/2009 23:05

Interesting thought Gerry about it going down to £2.00 I will bear that in mind as I've done well out of these shares recently. However don't you think that First will make an aggressive takeover bid in the next few weeks therefore pushing the price up? Any thoughts would be appreciatted!

[gerryl] 02/7/2009 16:25

Im afraid the shorters in the market have other ideas, further drops below £2.00 are still on the cards here, Id short to 2.00 and take 75p per share profit on that.

g

[the jackel] 01/7/2009 20:59

After a bumpy ride today I can see this one making steady progress towards 400! The failures of the East Coast Mainline were holding it back and all that I can see stopping it now is speculation that the government will want the East Anglia and C2C franchises back but doubt this will happen due to the legal ramifications.

[loryd] 01/7/2009 10:33

Their statement is hilarious. I loved the bit about the probs at East Coast. "It has been recognised that the challenges facing NXEC are purely financial". As opposed to what? The trains run on time and the trolley comes round regularly?

Leaving aside the legal battle with the suitably named Lord Adonis, it was interesting to read that they have a few tendering battles in the US - local govt in the US is under huge financial pressure. As for Spain...well I suppose they could be in Latvia.

Equally what sort of reputation will they have after all this?

I confess I find the whole sector unappealing, just using huge debt for a land grab. Even the much loved FirstGroup are as bad (and what are they thinking re Nat Exp). Still there will be winners and someone may happily snap up a much-reduced Nat Exp. But surely not until they know what it will look like in the future?

[oranges] 01/7/2009 09:37

I seem to think that Lord Adonis has behaved terribly, are National Express having franchise taken off them without proper consultation, it would appear so after hearing new CEO on Radio 4 at 8.50 am this morning!!!!

[letsgetbizzay] 01/7/2009 08:19

I think this may well finish above 300 :-)

[shammytime] 01/7/2009 08:13

In backward auction. When will this drop stop??

[royaloak] 01/7/2009 08:10

The problem is the government may take away their other franchises.

[shammytime] 01/7/2009 08:10

I agree with you Phillis, but the market obviously doesn't think so! I had my finger hovering on the buy button at 290, good job I waited.

[phillis] 01/7/2009 08:02

This is excellent news

[56richard] 01/7/2009 08:00

blimy, thats a lot to digest in one go! A bumpy ride today I suspect

[shammytime] 01/7/2009 07:57

Couldn't agree more, that's a bombshell statement - wouldn't be at all surprised to see 400 this week on the back of that.

[gyau] 01/7/2009 07:22

Under the DfT's model for franchise bidding, the Group's financial obligations under the East Coast franchise are strictly limited. Like all rail franchises, NXEC is a special purpose vehicle, set up to meet the DfT's requirement as a standalone legal entity, with its own assets, management team and franchise agreement with the DfT. National Express is not a party to, or a guarantor of, NXEC's obligations under the East Coast franchise agreement. Instead, National Express' committed financial obligations are restricted to a £40 million subordinated loan to NXEC, available to NXEC to maintain contractual liquidity ratios, and a performance bond to meet the DfT's costs in the event of franchise default by NXEC, up to a maximum of £32 million5. Other than these commitments, National Express has no further financial obligations under the East Coast franchise agreement or to NXEC. At the half year, £17.5 million of the subordinated loan had been drawn down, in compliance with the liquidity requirements set by the DfT. The performance bond remains uncalled.



This is going to rocket as NEX have said they are handing the franchise back. YES!!!

[the jackel] 30/6/2009 19:21

Oh hang on I've just noticed Dancing Piranha was shorting these a few weeks back lol!!!!!!!!!!! And I'm the idiot lol U idiot!!!!!!!!!!

[the jackel] 30/6/2009 19:15

Idiot Well I would like to see what price you bought your NEX shares at! I figured they would be prime for a takeover a few months back! and I am dam please I bought them when I did! If this is what an Idiot feels like well it will suit me lol

[dancing piranha] 30/6/2009 18:51

LOL...

Idiot!