Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[richaims] 31/3/2009 15:04

The continuing downward trend certainly suggests to me that it might be possible to buy these shares at a much lower price later this year. One to keep watching - it should be easy to spot any consistent future sustainable reversal of the downward trend.

[richaims] 31/3/2009 14:34

How much exactly is NEX's debt ?

[richaims] 31/3/2009 14:32

Surely the chart shows the NEX share price is continuing to fall consistently and therefore not a buy or hold until the trend is reversed ?

[volsung] 31/3/2009 13:12

Opened a small short.

[bonzo1] 31/3/2009 12:52

another low, now maybe 150p bottom? we shall see, very frustrating - on the bright side 2 of my other dogs trying to recover - Yell, which is off 90% seems very oversold and could double in quick time from the low base and punch taverns recovering on the back of ent. inn's recovery. look fwd to when Nat Express bottoms out as this was considered cheap at 300p and results last month when they were 240p seemed pretty ok, as well as holding the dividend.

[keifer derrin] 31/3/2009 12:34

thx all for the info. I have had to average down on barclays, almost in profit. So I want to make sure I get this one right. I did buy into this a few years ago and made 60%, which was good, but seeing how it went I could have kicked myself. But, a profit is a profit.

I am very suprised at how low this has gone, when there doesn't seem anything majorly wrong with the company.

[decoy] 31/3/2009 12:26

Their startegy for reducing debt is covered in ther results on 26.02.09. When this rises, it will probably rise just as sharply as it has fallen... the trick is to get in at the right price - I obviously got it wrong and averaged down on results day - wish I had waited - hindsight is such a wonderful thing!

[winston270] 31/3/2009 09:38

Keifer,

There had been press speculation that Nat Exp were recently in talks with ComfortDelgro with a view to selling the Travel London business to them as it's viewed as peripheral, it is also still to be re-branded as National Express London. Talks were supposed to have broken down due to a suitable price not being agreed. It is thought Nat Exp wanted £50million; it wouldn't put much of a dent in the debt if the deal did go through...

If that deal does go throught at some point, it would now make it the third time that Nat Exp have entered & then exited the London bus market.

[keifer derrin] 31/3/2009 09:17

I've been watching this share price drop for a while now and am thinking of getting in. I am concerned about the debt - but I cannot see any plans from the company on how they intend to reduce it - does anybody have any idea.

Thanks for any help

[decoy] 31/3/2009 08:28

Didn't take long for todays modest rise to be reversed. There is value here. It is a cash generative and profitable business that is committed to reducing debt this year. Brokers are still forcasting profits well in excess of £100m for the next two years plus the £100m or more in cost savings p/a.

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-09 3,001.36 159.22 72.79p 2.1 n/a -26% 17.51p 10.7%
31-Dec-10 3,070.36 124.26 61.40p 2.5 n/a -16% 19.98p 11.7%

[masurenguy] 31/3/2009 08:09

Corman is already down by over £4.5m on the shares that he purchased over December/January. It just demonstrates that director cannot be relied upon as a positive indicator for the short term forward direction of the share price !

[themoreiseeyou] 31/3/2009 06:30

At this level? Why aren't directors buying if it is such a bargain? Jorge Cosman and the Prudential bought three months ago, heavily; they have had their fingers severely burned. With a large company like this, if it survives, the shareprice usually rises two to three times from the bottom. There are loads of examples of this out there; look at the housing sector or banking or mining. Trouble is, where is the bottom. Most people thought that it was £2.50.

[jas_ron] 30/3/2009 19:20

just seems crazy, surely a decent punt at tis level.

[empirestate] 30/3/2009 19:06

how low can she go? seeing new bottom breach again, as said earlier a decent value play even for 2-3 months

[bonzo1] 30/3/2009 09:09

down below 160p but trying to show signs of recovery - volume very thin, only 200k traded and does not take much for these to move. good comments above abut debt and cash flow. suely all those analysts predicting £10 plus should be shot. think these are unbelievably low but just get cheaper, anyway one to add again when finances allow if they stay this low.

[decoy] 29/3/2009 08:06

A few recent recommendations I have found...

26.02.09 Panmure Gordon – Hold - reiterates 500p price target
03.03.09 Panmure Gordon - Hold
13.03.09 Citigroup upgraded from "Hold/High Risk" to "Buy/High Risk."
13.03.09 Investec – Buy
13.03.09 Blue Oar Securities - Buy
20.03.09 Shore Capital - Hold
27.03.09 JP Morgan - Neutral - reduces price target from 400p to 279p

I expect Panmure to reduce their price target this week! They may as well because i can't find one broker calling this correctly at the moment.

[empirestate] 28/3/2009 17:00

still think this has to be a buy at these levels. all companies with high debt figs are priced at rediculous levels on the concern of renewable bank lines or potential rights issues. look at the pubs sector for example, they are in a much worser state on the back of considerably larger reduction in earnings as well as valuations on the properties they own, yet even they have shown some strength over the last week or so. the transport sector should rebound soon enough and this is an ideal time to pick up some stock with a 3 to 6 month time play. yes there is alot of debt but the group has decent cash flow and profits to manage it. this is not a railtrack by any stretch of the imagination
and imo at these levels it offers a very good opportunity. all the best to holders.

[richaims] 28/3/2009 15:25

Down another 7.5% this week.

Buy or sell?

The trend is clearly continuing down according to the chart.

[decoy] 28/3/2009 09:11

The share price appears to be suffering from speculation about a possible rights issue. At the full year results presentation there a clear statement about reducing expenditure and lowering debt. The dividend has been rebased to a sustainable level yet still brokers, including Blue Oar, which has a buy note on the stock, are adding to press speculation by suggesting a rights issue may be needed.

12 brokers are covering NEX - 3 buys, 1 outperform, 7 holds and 1 sell.

On 19th Sept 2008 JP Morgan maintained its overweight position and raised its price target on NEX from 1164p to 1341p because it saw the defensive quality of the bus/coach business in a downturn. Yesterday JP Morgan maintained its neutral stance but reduced its price target from 400p to 279p.

What has happened in the last 6 months to justify them reducing their price target by 1062p???

Just shows what a bunch of time wasters most brokers are. I am holding because I beleive there is value here and the yeild is currently 9.9% - apparently the market thinks differently as this has been on downward spiral fo a year now - its about time the CEO made a statement and the directors showed confidence by putting the hands in their pockets instead of their heads in the sand.

Thats my rant over. Maybe next week will be better!!!

[bonzo1] 27/3/2009 16:28

this really is disappointing, to think that my barclays shares are worth more than national express now. 172p barc v. 162p Nat Express!

[shammytime] 25/3/2009 21:38

That still doesn't warrant this sort of nosedive. I'm in at 164 anyway. Never thought I'd be saying that about NEX 6 months ago.

[cr4zyness] 25/3/2009 19:45

From the finals:

Net debt increased by GBP269.0 million (2007: GBP472.4m) to GBP1,179.8 million
(2007: GBP910.8m).

[decoy] 25/3/2009 19:44

£269m more than when they trading at £11 per share

[decoy] 25/3/2009 19:44

£269m more than when they trading at £11 per share